6479 6515 resistance, 6415 support

Good morning. A better day yesterday that played out pretty well, despite not dipping down to the target area at the start. Short from 6465 then long 6430 worked out well, though the last leg was tempered a bit by the US, stalling at 6480, rather than reaching the 6510 area.

For today the bulls will want to hold that overnight low at 6416, and need to exceed 6480 to get some momentum (6485 is the top of the 10 day Bianca channel). We got the bounce yesterday, though today’s pivot at 6448 might be an initial stumbling block.

Quite a bit of news out today but nothing really market moving, the main one will be the 09:30 PMI, forecasted at 59 versus 58.8 previously.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index rebounding from its biggest slump since June, after U.S. shares advanced d and Japanese companies posted earnings that cheered investors.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.5 percent to 130.87 as of 1:29 p.m. in Tokyo, after plunging the most since June 20 yesterday. U.S. equities rebounded as 21 of 24 emerging-market currencies advanced against the dollar and data showed factory orders fell less than estimated in December.

“The market is breathing a sigh of relief,” said Masaaki Yamaguchi, equity market strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest brokerage by market value. “Confidence is coming back after emerging-nation currencies stabilized and U.S. data weren’t as bad as expected. The U.S. rebound gave a good reason for the market to rise after slumping.”

The MSCI Asia-Pacific gauge plunged 4.6 percent in January for its worst start to a year since 2009 as the Federal Reserve pressed ahead with cutting stimulus even amid concern over China’s economic slowdown and volatility in developing markets.

S&P Futures

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.3 percent today. The measure gained 0.8 percent yesterday, rebounding from a three-month low as investors assessed corporate earnings. Data from the Census Bureau yesterday showed factory orders slipped 1.5 percent in December, compared with the average economist estimate of a 1.8 percent decline in a Bloomberg survey.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

I have put a brief expectation at the top of this email but there are some resistance levels not that far away – the pivot at 6448 then the 10 day Bianca channel top at 6485. The bottom of the 10 and 20 day Bianca channels are quite far below so if 6400 breaks I expect that we will see that 6326 (10 day) and 6345 (20 day). If we get an initial dip and 6400 does hold then the bulls might gain some momentum to take the price to 6479 and possibly the top of that 30 minute channel at 6500. There is also the bottom of that 30 minute channel at 6365, a level that might be worth a long if it gets below 6400. If the bulls can gain that momentum and break 6479 then 6515 and 6580 are possible upside targets.

Generally then I think a dip and rise. Its been quite weak overnight again, dropping off the 6480 area, the 30 minuet coral and ema’s are bearish still, however 6400 is likely to be defended. But should it break then I think that 30 minute channel is a good one to trade off.

35 Comments

  1. The FTSE found enough support at the 6420 level to bounce again and form a nice looking hammer because, it appears the market is going to try and form some type of base down here, in which the markets will eventually turn bullish again. With this, a break of the top the hammer 6480 has me buying the FTSE in small increments, essentially “testing the waters.” With that, I feel that the market will eventually go much higher, but it is going to be choppy as there are plenty of noisy areas above

  4. I didn’t take any trades although I thought about short, now I think it’s going long to 6500 and 15427 so I will stay away from shorts at the moment.

  7. Real pain – I had a short yesterday at 6450 and a limit set overnight and it got within 0.3 points after it dropped overnight but didn’t quite hit it. Now losing on this – only going to close if it decisively breaks 6480 as that may suggest (to me) that the waves of sell offs has gone for now

  8. What did happened? Nearly came out of this long alive. OK. Heh.
    Rubbish today. managed 7 points, better get out of here before I lost those.
    Bad entry, no trade.

  9. As much as I love trading within tight ranges, there is a part of me now that wants to sit on the sidelines, as I’ve been caught too many times by breakouts in the opposit direction.

    One feels imminent.

  10. I have closed my long with a tiny profit but better than the huge loss I was looking at the other day. Feel long is the right way but will wait for a better level. It may not come.

      1. a short from 6480 with tight stop would be worth gamble than long from 6430/20 area, well that’s my opinion. Anyways, am on sidelines.

    2. closed most of my shorts….have a feeling fuse will rise again as shorts are closed before fridays report….but thats a pure guess

  14. Wow, that drop at 13.15 was tiny comparing to that at 15.00 when I was out. Wow, 100 points drop on the spot. Weird, never seen anything like this. To be honest since I started getting acquainted to Dow I see lots of things I’ve never seen on FTSE before. FTSE didn’t do anything too dramatic.
    Big players just wanted to get 15340 again. It would be nice to long from there.
    I can imagine people being long from 13.15 being very surprised to be stopped out.

  15. Feels like FTSE at a key point – it’s either going to take another leg down, or this is the end of the current correction. Can make arguments to support either so sitting waiting (well I have a small short but nothing to get excited by). The Dow and Dax trends still seem to be down on a daily basis so these will need to change if the ftse is going to move meaningfully forwards. Are Fridays NFP the trigger to go one way or the other?

  16. A Word of warning – IG android app users beware…
    l updated the app a couple of days ago and I’ve noticed quite a few times since that when closing a position manually, they’ve given me a less favorable price than the one shown on the app that I clicked on to close. It’s usually been less than a point, but has been up to 4 points worse on the Dow. I’ve never had this with any previous version of their app, which I’ve been using for over 2 years. Might be worth avoiding this version if you haven’t got it already.
    GLA.

    1. It’s never a good idea to jump in head first updating apps, operating
      systems, whatever unless you can easily “roll back”. Newer is
      not necessarily better. The Myth of Progress lol … Vista anyone lol 🙂

      1. I hate any changes they ever do with any charts, software. They think they improve things for us, but they actually make it sometimes more complicated. I am saying because of the shock I experienced when they changed that charting at CityIndex. I had to leave the platform.
        Actually when I was at CityIndex I noticed many times when I closed the position manually, if in this split second the price changed they will close on that price, and sometimes it is not the price you wanted. It could just suddenly drop a point and you end up with a loss instead of being b/e.
        You would say: just put a limit, I did it, but something else was happening. If the price suddenly jumped over your limit as a next available price they would close at that available price, so if I set a b/e I may still end up with a loss. This happened many times.

          1. should be *were* in profit I suppose… until the system took it upon itself to close them, that is 🙂

  17. Very small long here. Would like 6400 but believe after tomorrow is out if the way the buyers will return

  18. … Chinese slow growth no worries, Emerging Markets no worries, Tapering fear no worries, NFP no worries, interest rates no worries, we lied about it all …. Buy the frickin dips 🙂

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