6238, 6200, 6180, 6135 Support, 6275, 6322, 6350, 6400 Resistance

Good morning. Well we got the dip and the rise, though it went a bit lower than the 6255 area, just pinging the stop level of course, before rising again to test 6300. That 6238 sets the low support for today, and we have resistance at the top of the 20 day Bianca at 6322. Apple results helped the bulls last night, with 4Q EPS $1.42 versus $1.30. Overall it felt a little bit more positive yesterday, the bears had the chance to really drive it down with 6255 breaking, and failed. I expect we will see a test of 6322 today. Ebola is still simmering in the background but not got to a mass panic stage. There isn’t a divi applied tonight anymore, but tomorrow instead, just for your info.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, paring gains after yesterday rising the most in two years, as investors awaited a slew of Chinese economic data and weighed U.S. corporate earnings.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) slid 0.1 percent to 136.49 as of 10:06 a.m. in Tokyo after soaring 2.2 percent yesterday for its biggest gain since September 2012. Prices for the index were delayed this morning by a technical issue, according to MSCI Inc. The region’s biggest economy is due to publish reports today on gross domestic product, industrial production and retail sales. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge completed a three-day rebound from last week’s selloff.

“Asia today is watching one of the biggest data drops of the year as China’s third-quarter GDP figures are released,” Evan Lucas, Melbourne-based market strategist at IG Ltd., wrote in a note. “Corporate earnings optimism is certainly driving the U.S. market.”

Japan’s Topix (TPX) index slid 0.4 percent after jumping 4 percent yesterday, the most since June 2013, after a report the nation’s $1.2 trillion pension fund will boost domestic stock holdings.

South Korea’s Kospi index lost 1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index advanced 0.7 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong are yet to open.

U.S. Earnings
The S&P 500 advanced 0.9 percent yesterday as optimism over corporate earnings spurred a rebound from last week’s selloff. Apple Inc., which rose 2.1 percent during regular trading, gained after exchanges closed on higher-than-forecast sales.

Profit for S&P 500 companies probably rose 5.9 percent in the third quarter — a forecast that’s been revised upward from an increase of 4.8 percent as of Oct. 10 — and sales increased 4 percent, according to analysts’ projections compiled by Bloomberg.

Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.1 percent in their most recent trading session, and contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 0.2 percent.

China’s gross domestic product probably expanded 7.2 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace in more than five years, according to Bloomberg’s survey of economists ahead of data scheduled for release today.

Thirteen of 22 economists polled last week said China will seek expansion of about 7 percent next year, down from this year’s 7.5 percent goal. Sixteen said the government should change its targeting policy, with nine indicating a range would be better and seven suggesting targets be scrapped altogether in favor of projections or assumptions, as most other nations provide.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Todays pivot is 6275 which we have just dipped under slightly that is now resistance; we also have the 25ema on the 30 min there, so I am thinking an initial short this morning for a dip down to 6250 and 6238. We have a few little channels in play on the 10min and 30min charts, on the 10min support is at 6260 and 6250, while the 30min has support at 6260 then 6210. I’m going to run with the 30minute today and go for a dip front he pivot initially at 6275, down to yesterdays low. If that level holds then we should get a decent rise today, wight he first main hurdle being the 30min channel at 6300, then 6322. If the bulls can break above that then 6350 and 6400 are the next main resistance levels. Might be a big ask to get too bullish today, but the fact that the bulls fought back yesterday shows a bit of strength. Maybe a bit too obvious but it would be good if prices tested the top of the 20 day Raff channel and the 25ema on daily at 6420 before more downside.

Raffs
Raffs

Support so entry levels for a possible long
6238
6200
6180
6135
Resistance so entry levels for a possible short
6275 daily pivot
6300
6312
6322
6350
6400

60 Comments

  3. PMS — I think you’re right —

    “Definition of the period of execution of the backtest
    This area lets you define the beginning and end of the backtest. Note that the amount of data that can be
    used for the backtest is generally limited to the amount of data displayed on the chart. You can increase
    the amount of historical data loaded on your chart by using the left dropdown menu of each chart. You
    need to load the amount of data on which you want to run the test before executing the backtest.

    Notes concerning customized time zones and weekend data :
    Customized time zones are taken into account by charts only. They are not taken into account by
    backtests (the official market time zone is always used for backtesting purposes).”

    I should expect the values of optimised parameters to vary with the length of the data run selected. (However, the existence of the option does not guarantee the availability of that amount of data!) ProRealTime is coy about the amount of data available for each timeframe.

  7. Could I request one thing please. If anybody takes the software signal – please post it on the forum. So if anything untowards occurs – I can post it imediately.

    1. hi took your signal but had a stop at 03, will post earlier next time if i take the signal from you.

  13. After a by signal on DAX Oct.17 and reverse yesterday, with some conflict signals in after hours, it’s today again in buy mode since 9:00 am.

    Now FTSE is the one left for that long time awaited signal

  14. Such a tool I am. Went long at 6am this morning 8662 as things were getting sold on good data from china with all good earning in states. So knew it would go up. I then close it at 8694 as I still don’t understand why the market is not picking up. I next check 15 minutes ago and we are on 8850! WTF!! This market is absolutly bonkers as there has been no further news since 6am I’m aware of that would cause the DAX to go up 160 points!

    Anyway I’m short 8845 as at some point there will be some jitters and the US might be doing well but the rest of us aint and US won’t win that battle.

    1. Hi Dutch – Doesn’t make sense to me ..
      “So I knew it would go up. I then close it at 8694 as I still don’t understand why the market is not picking up. ”
      Vision Express or 30 MA ??

  18. Senu — Just got a buy @ 6329/13.50. Not much action since 11.00 though. System coasting at +90 points from yesterday morning

      1. I haven’t been able to run my proper system since last Thursday — I had hoped to be running that for real by now. The system was working perfectly until then. I have of course notified IG and sent off error reports. I am not happy with the lack of response. I am given to believe that there is a general fault, affecting many, but in paranoid moments I have wondered if my account is receiving special treatment! (System II is doing not too badly though.)

      2. Still just testing it really, will do for a while longer before putting money on the line. Want to see how they behave when its less volatile with trending days.

    1. not sure, i am gold short from 55 with stop at 60. if snp breaks 22/23 probably, gold might drop, lets see.

  21. Have just been told that my backtest difficulties are down to the latest update of Java, and, all being well, will be sorted by next Friday morning. Perhaps by that time System II will be as good as System I! 😀 Incidentally System II is giving a SELL @ 6358.

      1. Sorry Shy! I’ve now got the buy signal and things are looking positive, e.g., 4 hr timeframe. At the moment, 86% of long positions are winning, but only 64% of shorts are winning (System II.) ProRealTime has a resistance level at 6567.

  23. Hello old chaps 😀

    So we have a buy signal this afternoon on FTSE at 6354. 1st since Oct.1, when I run my tests. That’s a good reverse…Let’s see until when will this signal goes. Looks promissing

  24. Hi been a little busy too post, amazing this rally but won’t last well not in Europe anyway. America is a little different but far from out of the woods.Nothing has really changed growth deflation and other global problems. Also note russia sanction are still firmly in place which will still be crippling Europe manufacturing.

  25. just imagine FED next week saying interest rates raise are delayed by further 1 year and markets will be on turbo charge, USD drops and gold gaining some lost ground.

  26. Fed won’t say that Sam they may be dovish, and I do think the Feds have made a rod for there own back and forward guidance will have some form of QE4 but Yellen is well aware of the bubbles that have been caused in certain section of the markets,and still there has not been a correction well in the terms of a correction 10 to 20% on dow or sp Russell 2000 has been in a correction since it made it highs most European markets have been hit hard and are still weak even though today has been amazing.

  27. Agreed, data out of US has been good of late, am sure Yellen won’t say or doing anything that spoils the recover and they are well aware EU is still fragile so I expect them to be dovish, let’s see if dax can get through that 9k and ftse 6440/30/20. Mario helped bears get past those key barrier, now it’s Yellen’s turn to help Bulls 🙂

  28. True Draghi did not do much for markets but the problem is European Central banks have there hands tied with Germany saying they will go too court if European Central introduce american style QE. Dax has its own problems most companies in are manufacturing the longer the sanction on russia the more profit is being eaten add that too deflation and you got problems if german blow then so does the rest of Europe.

  29. I just don’t understand why the European markets are so in tandem with the US movement. Sure a good US economy is great for Europe but we are mainly trading within the block and the block ain’t well. Seriously can someone explain it to me?

  30. Oh and don’t give me QE and all that because if Europe does that it’s actually fact that this will be worse for Europe and only good for the US and others.

    Rant over, good night everyone, expecting some answers in the morning though!

  31. Dutch 35% of the money that flows into the European market is american well at least the Dax so when they buy in the states it flows though, I am not buying today rally and will be having a small short on Ftse and Dax Europe has big problems there no hiding that I honestly thought the Dax would hit 8000 and the ftse 6000 but now can’t see that maybe another small pullback before the end of October then a rally upto Xmas that just my opinion and really finding the markets hard to trade may go back to just trading individual shares a lot easier than this bollocks.

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