Will pivot at 6574 hold today? 6609 resistance

Good morning. Nice for yesterday to follow the plan with the dip to the pivot and then rise again, though it topped at the 6606 area very late in the day, rather than the ultimate target of 6626. 6670 is still on the radar though for the short term! Todays pivot is 6574, same again? Last day of the week today of course before 4 days off with the FTSE closed Friday and Monday. The US is open and trading on Monday though. The FTSE has dropped back a little overnight after breaking that 6600 level so the bulls weren’t keen to break the 10 day Bianca channel in the end (sits at 6609 today).

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose for a second day after U.S. industrial production increased more than forecast in March and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank remains committed to supporting the economic recovery.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent to 138.63 as of 11:53 a.m. in Hong Kong as all but one of its 10 industry groups rose. U.S. industrial production climbed last month after a February gain that was twice as big as previously estimated.
“The global economic cycle is gradually improving and monetary conditions are easy,” said Shane Oliver, who helps oversee about $130 billion as Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. “The trend in share markets is likely to remain up.”

Japan’s Topix index swung between gains and losses after yesterday capping its steepest rally in two months. GungHo soared 9.4 percent to 583 yen and Canon gained 1.7 percent to 3,232 yen.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.3 percent and the Hang Seng ChinaEnterprises or mainland shares traded in the city climbed 0.4 percent. The gauge rebounded 9.1 percent through yesterday since entering a bear market on March 20 amid speculation that China policy makers will act to stabilize the economy amid the worst slowdown since the global financial crisis.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded yesterday at 12.6 times estimated earnings compared with 15.9 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 14.5 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Fed has a “continuing commitment” to support the recovery even as policy makers now see the economy reaching full employment by late 2016, Yellen told the Economic Club of New York yesterday. Investors should pay attention to shortfalls in both inflation and the jobless rate for signals on the Federal Open Market Committee’s decisions on the policy rate, she said.

Unwinding Program
Fed policy makers are unwinding the bond-buying program they have used to support the economy while keeping their target for overnight lending between banks in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since 2008.

The U.S. economy continued to expand in most regions as businesses benefited from a rebound from harsh winter weather earlier in the year. Eight of 12 Fed districts characterized growth as “modest or moderate,” the Fed said in its Beige Book business survey, based on reports gathered before April 7.

Futures on the S&P 500 slid 0.2 percent today after the equities gauge yesterday capped its best three-day rally in two months on optimism over corporate earnings and the strength of the world’s largest economy.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Todays pivot is 6574 and the bulls, after all their hard work defending 6507 the other day, will need to defend this level to enable a push higher, most likely to 6626. I still have 6670 on the radar (probably not today today but sometime soon if the bulls can keep their strength up). We do have the Bianca 10 day channel top at 6609 today which is likely to present a hurdle to the bulls so it will be interesting to see if they can break that if tested. It certainly dropped off that 10 day channel last night, though admittedly not by that much. If the pivot is broken by the bears then dip to 6530 is my thinking.

The other reason for expecting support at the pivot area is that we are within pretty decent 30 min channel and the bottom of that is also at that level. I am treating today a bit like a Friday though as its the last day of the week and doing reduced stakes as don’t want to give back the gains from earlier this week, so bear that in mind too.

137 Comments

  1. Nick – so do you consider the pivot as having been broken now or can you see your strategy still playing out?

  2. I feel a bounce at 6556 area. But I’m a rookie. So what do I know! Anyone else feeling that?

  3. That’s my provisional plan but will see what kind of action we get at that level. Seems as if 6563 has adopted a support level all of its own now!

    1. Why haven’t you closed or reduced – we got to 6610 overnight – thought you were long at 6600

      1. God, it is 6649 now. thanks for the support 🙂 I hold it till now… would you say there would be a chance to see FTSE reaches 6700?

  6. Well, not what I expected to see but forgot tomorrow is a holiday which means today is like a friday which I dont trade anymore as they are always messed up.

    If 65 doesnt hold which is 200ma on 30min then not good

  10. btm 10 day 6566 not to many want to hold over long weekend so i think if it goes above 6000 6009 may be its limlt on other hand may need to hit highs to day

  17. Yes belly stop also at 55 if it does go might leave it for yanks to carry batten will c around 12.30

  19. have to corect my self here from earlier post stated at btm of 10 day meant just on 10 day line still thinking same if tops not hit today the road to them after easter might not be as easy ……….. when dow gets fired up later maybe a quick up folowed by quick sell off

  26. The only time I c a strong V is between 10-11 to note a change in direction. The change that ocurrs at 1 sometimes is more subtle before it resumes its initial path. Then the yanks come in and its anyone’s guess what will happen.

  27. Can you see it hitting 09 today? Even with the easter weekend looming. Surely there will be a massive sell off before close

  28. If you want to trade afternoon I have found better stay out till 2.45 but if news out at 3 then wait till 3.10

  29. I try not to trade in the afternoon now as I took a massive hit last week. Took a few days to watch just mornings and I try not to do anything in the afternoon unless its a sure thing. Which is why I’m thinking if there is a massive sell off this afternoon it could be worth a short

  31. for anyone who is wanting to know, i closed my shorts yesterday for a measly 5 point profit lol.
    im on sidelines now

  35. Belly for what it’s worth I c a bit of resistance at 91 but looking at 1 hr chart it does look like it will head to 6630 before big drop

  38. It will be a choppy afternoon, its option day and that’s is why we had those funny moves on FTSE around 10.14/10.15…afternoon will be the time for the US to do the tricks

  55. Not from what i can see looks like its setting up for 6629 before US open so if so be careful if you intend to short as it might just continue up as good earnings out.
    Was Nicks second target 6670.
    Just seen Nicks got resistance at 6626 also

  56. Nick has 6670 at the top end. Not looking to short right now as this should be my last trade. Obviously ill keep an eye and see whats happening ive brought my stop right up to 95 but im thinking it might be a tad high

  57. I try to keep a 20 point stop and moved up to 15 points this morning and got taken out. Would have survived if I had stuck to my rule.
    I would be surprised to see it drop below 6600 again might bounce off it up again. Go with your gut

  58. Dow set to continue its rebound from 16000. 16500-600 looking likely. FTSE should trail after as usual.

  69. Jim am looking at a wedge pattern forming on the 1 hr and 30 min chart and for that to play out before we head north we will head down to 6450 from this area it might get as high as 6650 but its coming if the wedge pattern plays out

  71. i am holding long over weekend on dow if dont get top today……. thinking the up might come late on in eve as to not give shorters a chance to short down and big drop at open monday…….. i think closing time is as normal this eve 9.15

      1. will see how it plays out coming near to close……… very weary leaving trades over weekend……… no control over them at open could clean you out

  74. Hi, I am completely new to spread betting. I was wondering: it is currently 18:52 UK Time, why on IG Spread betting is the FTSE 100 price still changing even though it closed at 16:30? Does this normally happen every day? I’m confused as to why this is happening. At the moment it has FTSE 100 down as 6646 even though it closed at 6625 on actual stock exchange. So on Tuesday when FTSE opens, will the index number on IG website adjust itself so it is the same as the actual FTSE 100 or will it remain higher? Im confused, sorry if this is a noob question :/

    1. Hi J

      The FTSE trades 24hrs a day (except holidays like Easter, Xmas etc). The official stock exchange trading times are 8am – 4:30pm, other times are called ‘out of hours trading’ which is why you see the FTSE still ticking away.

      Out of hours trading can be both beneficial and non-beneficial to traders who holds trades for days. I find out of hours trading can be erratic.

      Hope this helps.

  75. Shorted Dow at 16450 & Ftse at 6645
    S/L 30 ticks on each, no target as this nose dives by Tuesday! Current consensus from you guys is?

  76. How how are you guys expecting this to go before it hopefully drops? I’ve stupidly gotten myself in a bad position.

  80. well to me it seems on the 4hr that a dip is due as previous highs have rebounded along the same trend line, and also I think there is divergence on the RSI which could mean a reversal??

    My biased hopeful opinion.

    What’s your view?

  81. I agree with 4 hour chart, lower highs etc. just not sure of nose dive? I am short from 6625 so would be happy for it to dive! Sill trade early on has caught me keeping a short over Weekend. New to SB

  82. Nick – read this RNS, you will very much laugh and appreciate the sense of humour.

    http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=ELX&ArticleCode=dvoud7jx&ArticleHeadline=Half_Yearly_Report

    My tip for a while ago of RGD was good, but look into it now, it’s another tip by me.

    My other tip for the year and for further years has to be HYR. Off the radar atm but a small amount invested early can work a dream later on.
    I’ll link a report I have done to it when I’ve sorted it.

    ps
    if you look in LSE I’m legobrickgirl

    gl

  83. Closed all longs for good points again.
    Now on sidelines…
    Haven’t been for a while.

    Hope that Tuesday brings a gap up and will then look to enter mid term short.
    No doubt now that US is range bound. Will capitalise on that.

    Year playing out nicely so far…

    Gl all

    1. Well done Havis . Quick question with all this going on in Crimea do you think the banks/traders milk this as any excuse to drop the indices to kill the longs for a few days . I’m pretty new to this and only take minimum stakes on DFB but it all seems a big con by the SB firms . Took a short on FTSE100 at 16449 after hours , saw the DOW drop and expected a similar pattern . It was following the same and then going opposite directions.. Please explain how this can happen !!

      1. Hi Marky,

        Sorry, but I too am very new to all this. I would say though that the markets are volatile, something most have been expecting this year, making it difficult to trade.

        The important thing is to have a good strategy and good discipline.
        Without these it can go wrong very quickly. I have higher stakes and find that even in all this volatility I am able to close good trades.

        Gl

    1. Simple, short the highs and buy the lows.
      On the daily, when it reaches highs I start selling, when it reaches lows I start buying 🙂

      1. Yes, if you only know where’s high and where’s low for sure – everyone would be a millionaire Hehehehe

  87. As a swing trader, trading roughly once a month on MACD, I would be looking to go long as both DOW and FTSE are shaping that way for next week. I missed out though and was on the sidelines last week because there simply wasn’t a big enough swing last week. It went down as planned and now its going up, just don’t know how much, 6675? Who knows!

    1. Be careful though, DOW very close to highs. Don’t think DOW will make much impression this year, hence the bearish view. If I was trading DOW I would be looking to short the top at 16500 🙂

  88. The linked chart below shows that the FTSE has been tramlining, on a slightly negative gradient, since mid-October last. We have been trading fluctuations around a straight-line trend; a difficult environment I think. (E.g., shareholding values are all over the place – speaking for myself!) I think that at this point we are being treated by the FTSE to a display of virtuosic randomness. Early this month, instead of maintaining progress back towards 6800, it seesawed down to 6500 again, from which level it is now recovering. The index is now just 50 points or so away from 6700, at which level one anticipates some resistance. If the FTSE gets past this hurdle then we can expect to see 6800-6850, in line with previous highs since last October/November. If it doesn’t, we may well see a drop from a stunted high to 6400 or less – not being a doom merchant, not my preferred option, although I’m always interested to know what your techies are saying GG!
    Possibly, the market has got over its initial panic reaction to the prospect of QE reduction (or maybe it was just Bernanke’s style that caused the trouble 🙂 ), and adjusted to the idea that improved economic performance will pick up the baton. At any rate, the Fed seems to be concerned to minimise market volatility as QE is cut back. Maintained stability in the US should support the market outlook here.
    http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE100DFB_zpsd7d65125.png

  89. cant see ftse getting any higher than 6670 6675 but i still think dow has no problem getting to top 16660 … with ftse and dax hemed tonight and tomorow would be the perfect opertunity to move up …… and thinking quick drop back then to about where it is at present at 16414 a move up of 240 points quite achiveable ….. closed my long on dow friday evening 16455 before it droped back….. GLA

  91. Can’t see FTSE going past 6675 which is only 25 points higher than it closed roughly and Dow to climb 200+ points would Shirley take FTSE higher than 25 points. Can see Dow climbing by say 100 points and FTSE 25 points maybe down overnight tonight then climb up tomorrow.

    1. I use MACD as part of a basket of indicators – i started looking at it alone as I wanted to keep things as simple as possible. When I looked back there are times when the FTSE was trending down even though MACD had crossed over to the upside so unless the trend is strong it can send you the wrong way

    2. Sorry Freddo just saw your message. I usually enter on a crossover, with it set to the normal defaults, on the daily chart, so usually one entry per month on average. Its a system that works because its going up or down (more obviously) just don’t know how much by, so you need to prep for it to go the other way (i.e not put an order in more than it swinging the wrong direction too much) and never be greedy, I think Nick promises around 100 points per month by following him but hes a pro. I usually get 40 points per month.

      1. Thanks Ravi.

        Looking at the MACD X over for the last year, the market has often gone in the wrong direction for a few days before following the MACD direction. Do you ride the loss until it finally moves in the direction you desire or do you bail out and wait?

        1. I never bail because eventually it will go back in that direction, but the key to not having to bail is a) put an amount down that can take a big hit (upto 300 points in the wrong direction) b) not be greedy c) patience

  96. Cheers Marco. Seems to bouncing back up how do you this going before open in Tuesday . I put a short on 6545 and left it open over weekend bit silly really don’t seem to call it right a lot of the time !!

  97. Marky probably won’t see much movement till 12 when earnings come out. Might drift back up to 6670/75 if they are good but I am expecting this to drop back to 6620 on Tuesday.
    I have tried trading lots of different ways Marky for the last 2 years and founded the most consistent one is to only trade mornings with a max of 2 trades one at 8.10 and one between 10-11.
    Good luck

    1. Thanks Marco . Another quick question how does Nick calculate resistance /pivot / and support points . I shall look at your trade plan but tend to agree , The FTSE gets a lot more volatile when the DOW is opens . I think the spike up on thursday was due to the Ukraine issue being a bit more settled you agree .

  98. on closer inspection and a bit more time spent can see a possible top on ftse of 6735 which would level with dow going for top some resistance to break 6670 6685

  99. I have the pivot tomorrow a tad over 6600, which given I am now more bullish than I was, will make (I think) a good position to go long from what with the 6600 level being there too. Gives scope for a healthy pull back before it possibly bounces back up. Stayed out on Friday – had a long trigger at 6555 which it didnt quite reach plus was reluctant to take a long just before easter – in the end could have done as it added 100 points just on Friday. Never mind

  102. Evening boys. Had a day off today due to having commitments that meant I couldnt keep an eye on things. How do we see it going in the morning?

  103. Morning Belly
    Looking at 30min and 1hour the 6603 pivot looks like a target then north from there to have another go to break through 6675 as FTSE has really struggled here. Be interesting to see where we are at 8 am as to direction fir morning. Dow has really struggled today.

  104. So we’re saying its most likely short drom about 8.10 till 10/11 then back on the long till lunch?

  109. Stay short Tan. It will eventually come back in. I’ve just gone short hoping to see this come off cos at the mo it just keeps rising

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