Good morning. Well yesterday was a bit of a non-event from a bull point of view, taking all day (and night) to drop to the 6600’ish area. I got the short order taken at 6640 but that got stopped out, but further shorts paid off for the drop down. Was just a bit too early with the original top level and the speed of the drop to the 6600 area. Its now at the levels for the longs mentioned yesterday and I think that those 2 trades are still valid for today, provided prices hold above 6590. That’s the two longs from 6613 and 6603. As expected its certainly been a tricky week, with the market still seemingly digesting the non-tapering news and if this is a good or bad thing. Good in that there is more QE, bad as it means the economy isn’t great yet. I still think the UK QE will be increased to £400bn at some point in the near future.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index on course for its biggest three-week gain in two years, as a weaker yen boosted Japanese exporters.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1 percent to 141.22 as of 1:24 p.m. in Tokyo, poised for a third straight week of gains and extending a four-month high. The measure climbed 2.9 percent this week through yesterday after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from reducing stimulus measures, saying it wants more evidence of an economic recovery before paring its $85 billion-a-month in bond purchases. A Bloomberg survey of economists had forecast a $5 billion reduction.
“The dollar will strengthen against the yen in the long run on the U.S. economic recovery, which is good for Japanese stocks,” said Juichi Wako, a Tokyo-based equity market strategist at Nomura Securities Co., the nation’s biggest brokerage. “It’s a matter of when the Federal Reserve will start tapering its stimulus.”
“Things are picking up and companies are more confident about the future” in Japan, Clay Carter, head of international equities at Perennial Value Management Ltd. in Sydney, told Bloomberg TV. “We’re overweight Japan and confident on Japan, but not wildly bullish. The confidence that companies have about the medium term is a positive for us. We want to see that in the earnings numbers and the macro-economic numbers that will be coming out in the next three months.”
Outlook
I am still feeling bullish for the moment as long as prices hold above 6590. With the Dax also near the bottom of the 30 minute channel that could bounce which would also buoy the FTSE up. I expect we will test the top of the Bianca 20 day channel again before too long. Having been driven up by the QE non-tapering news bull will be keen to regain the 6650 area and a break of 6654 should get to the 6680/90 mentioned yesterday (which is the top of the 20 day channel). We are likely to see some profit taking ahead of the weekend but maybe not that much, as its very much risk on for equities at the moment. the bottom of both Bianca channels are at 6561 for today so if it does all go bearish then there would also be support there.
Shaking apple tree on markets today GL
THE LONG ONE IN THE CORNER
Closed my long for a few points, S&P. Was getting too nervous!
X2WLT, Did you mean a short from here for today?
Senu no I went long last night and close just now… Not shorting here.
It started falling after you closed/booked profit in ur long call 😉 , any suggestion on FTSE today ?
Nick, are you still bullish and holding your longs taken @ 6613 and 6603?
Warning!! 11 fed speeches next week! Beware..they may still take more of our money yet!
German Elections Sun. Go flat everyone?
I think James Bullard St. Louis Fed idiot and Esther George…Kansas Fed idiot are to talk more rubbish today and move the markets to help their Wall St buddies make more money in this ponzi scheme. So beware…
Nick, Nick…. its not looking good for your predictions lately. You are not in the good books of the Casino operators lately!!…What have you done???…lol
Lol, think they are starting to read them!
Where’s bl…dy rally?
For God’s sake, will I ever see my money back? -50 now
Jack…you need to turn your graph upside down..there….. you have the rally now! 🙂
Nice one Ray…lol
Dow down 100? What happened to all the Fed QE ‘optimism’ of just 2 days ago?? ..it was buy..buy…buy!! lol…
Did say don’t buy in at these levels
Looking for a small dip through to next week to salvage a bad month……and then broadly bullish for the final quarter – with plenty of bumps in October and November I’m sure. Personal target is to pick up a further 5% by year end.
The next stop 6735?
I hope so….
Lost a few quid long today. All about the shorts next week. No man can predict these markets so just got to go with the flow. Can’t see too many people buying shares at these levels so long live the pullback!
Ok so has no one listened to the news?
It’s a bit hypocritical of me, cos I always say “Turn the telly off!” But you really do need to listen sometimes. Here is the deal for the next week.
America has until 30th September to re-arrange its debt problems. (Debt problems, I hear you saying….. well yeah they have a rather large debt problem).
Now they need to come up with another solution to the debt and announce the solution, because the 30th September is “Fiscal Cliff Day”.
Been an awfully lovely run on the indices upwards, but as they say, what goes up, must come down and nothing runs in a straight line, so here we have the Fiscal Cliff looming and it’s a perfect excuse to bring market down.
Have a good weekend peeps.
GLA
A link to how I think the Dow will do next week. Hope it strikes a chord with someone! 🙂
http://imageshack.us/a/img96/9688/vdmn.png
On testing, the link didn’t work directly from this site, i.e. by clicking on the url above. Copying and pasting the url seems to work ok.
Right-click on url above, select ‘Open in new window’ or ‘Open in new tab’. Either seems to work fine.
Thanks for that jim was short on dow from about 15500 until yestrday morn…. would have left runing only i thought ftse was going to rise to 6690 had not enough in my acc to keep 2 going because of last weeks heavy losses ….done very well for 5 weeks had about 6k loss for 1 week almost cleaned out … might get some back of dow on way down. i think when you have a certian amount of money in acc you should move it out leving enough to do 1 comfortable trade at a time..need to get into habit of using stops which would have saved me a lot last week….lol
still holding long on ftse over weekend from 6604 was getting good phrophet at 6635 held to long it did not seem to want to go back to far on fri eve will depend what way dow goes on sunday evening
Looking a bit more at dow can see a possible retrace from 15450 to 15649 adding to ftse chance of hitting top this timeof 5722 back to 6646 then at some stage possibly on a sunday night take a buck leap on some kind of good news straight to top 6880 level playing feild down we go bobs your uncel gla……………….