Support 5778 5760 5636 5624
Resistance 5857 5868 5876 5883 5924 5946
Market Summary for Monday
The FT100 was dragged lower by a falling oil price and broker downgrades in the banking sector. After the sharp moves up over the last two trading days it was probably inevitable that any excuse for some profit taking would kick in. There was some early buying which followed through from Friday however this quickly dried up as some traders continue to sell into any rally. Its looking like 5960 will be as high as we get on that leg up from 5600, as today I am looking at a short around the 5850 area on any early morning rise.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
- U.S. crude slips back below $30 a barrel after rebound
- Standard & Poor’s 500 Index halted two days of gains
Asian stocks fell, halting a two-day rebound, as oil slipped back below $30 a barrel and Japanese shares led losses.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.9 percent to 118.75 as of 9:10 a.m. in Tokyo after capping its biggest two-day rally since October 2011. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index halted two days of gains, with declines accelerating in the final hour of trading as crude extended its selloff. While the gyrations in China’s equity market took center stage in the first few weeks of the year, the impact of the rout in oil on industrial demand, prices and economic growth worldwide is now coming to the fore, with shares and crude prices now the most correlated since 2013.
“The rally that we’ve seen looks more like a bit of short-covering,” Chris Green, an Auckland-based strategist at First NZ Capital Group Ltd., a brokerage and wealth management firm, said by phone. “This is not the time to be putting on risk. The primary risk is on the Chinese economy and how it evolves. There’s increasing uncertainty as to the ability of the Chinese authorities to arrest the volatility in their currency and equity markets. Concerns are increasing about oil’s weakness and its knock-on effects.”
Japan’s Topix index sank 1.9 percent after rising Monday to cap the first back-to-back gains this year. New Zealand’s benchmark gauge lost 0.3 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to open, while Australia is closed for a holiday.
FTSE China A 50 Index futures slipped 0.2 percent in most recent trading, while those for the Hang Seng Index fell 0.5 percent and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost 0.4 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8 percent on Monday as coal and steel producers climbed on a government pledge to further cut overcapacity and excess labor in those industries.
Kospi Slides
South Korea’s Kospi index slid 0.7 percent on Tuesday. The nation’s growth rate retreated from a five-year high as a surge in property transactions that supported the economy earlier in 2015 fizzled out. Gross domestic product rose 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, when it jumped by 1.3 percent, data from the central bank showed.
The regional benchmark gauge has lost 10 percent this year, buffeted by concerns about slowing growth in China and the rout in oil and other commodities. The Shanghai measure is down 17 percent, while Japan’s Topix has lost 12 percent. Attention turns to central banks this week, with the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan due to review monetary policy.
Futures on the S&P 500 index fell 0.2 percent. The U.S. equity benchmark index dropped 1.6 percent on Monday as energy shares declined.
Oil extended its decline to $29.66 a barrel before weekly U.S. government data forecast to show crude stockpiles expanded for a third week, exacerbating a global glut. Crude slumped 5.8 percent Monday after Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, said low prices won’t reduce its spending on energy projects. [Bloomberg]
FTSE Outlook and Prediction

Its looking like oil is heading to $25 per barrel which will have a bearish effect on the FTSE, and a likely move down to 5600, and possibly lower is on the cards. For today, we have some initial support at 5800 as its a round number, however, with a weak overnight session I expect we will dip slightly below that to the more significant support area around 5780. If that holds then the bulls might well be able to drag it up to the 100 Hull Moving Average on the 2 hour chart which is 5857 at the time of writing (will be slightly lower later on) and the bears might well enter their shorts around this area, As such I am seeing a dip, small rise and then further downside today. I did think that the bulls would take it slightly higher yesterday from the 5870 area hence the revised short order at the 5915ish area (but they failed at 5910). It certainly looks like we are now on the next leg down, having failed to even reach 6000. If we are to reverse that position then the bulls will need this back above 6000 and then 6100. Which could be a big ask for both those levels! However, you never know and for the moment, I have support at the 5780 area and resistance at 5855 so those are the 2 areas I am looking at today.
Morning all, all I can say is “Bugger”!
lol, yeah same here, it was pretty nailed on wasn’t it?
Hey ho tmfp, as my old Nan used to say “You never made a loss by taking a profit”.
For me, it is in no-mans land now. Could be 5500 or 6000 but I’m bending towards a bit more down. I think I’d be a buyer at 5700, it struggled to get through that the other day and when it did it collapsed and rallied back in the blink of an eye.
Good luck sunshine, my hands are under my bum.
Don’t forget to wash your hands before dinner time if your having sandwiches Chippy:0)
Or if you’re serving chips 🙂
Morning.
Nick’s brave first arrow completed, not to sure about the second one myself.
Catalyst for the fall was lousy DOW and another 6% down in China, looks well on course for a look at the 2532 low before their New Year. Where’s all the yuan going? There’s only so many McMansions in Vilamoura and US office blocks, hardly gilt edged stuff.
I’m picking tops with rsi all today and then holding with b/e stops, rinse and repeat, on the hopes of further weakness down to 740. Caught 5800 and sitting on it atm.
DAX had half a look at 9540 which I think is fairly important, break that/500 then there’s a 200 point hole.
Hat off to you Nick, even if it doesn’t quite make 850, great call.
Morning all,Carney at 10.45 and the FOMC meeting and Jpn due,last 2 might make people hold off on the shorts a bit.
I don’t see how the Fed can help. She said the economy was improving at the last meeting when they raised rates by a quarter of 1 percent. If she now says she is open to keeping the option of raising rates slower than now expected, then she will be admitting that economic conditions have worsened significantly just in the last month and a half.
So spooking the markets further.
Guess it depends on how you think stuff works and how many options/variables you think there are,but fair to say the leaders of the fat half of the planet havent been willing to let the chips fall so their populations can experience what they pushed on Asia and Eastern Europe during the 90’s so far.I think the problem is that Agharti is underground and the King of The World doesnt have a Cable hook up or phone signal and really just judges stuff by Yak milk production like his ancestors did 🙂
Lol good point WSF, two stops from Dagenham stuff there, love it!
I hear you too WSF and I’m with you all the way.
Morning All,
I have a long this morning on Dax from 580. I expect the price to get to 690 and see what happens from there.
Closed half for 90 points at 670 which might offer a bit of resistance and rest at b/e.
Good trade there RJ nice one.
Good stuff mate, you’re getting a good rhythm going on the DAX.
thanks anstel and tmfp.
Bloody hell that was close,I nearly placed a hedging short at 5810 on Ftse Rsi was overbought and Dow bumped into 200 SMA on the 2 min……..but no I’m gonna watch.
Is that those longs from yesterday around 870?
Still struggling with the RR/stop loss concept then….it’s going to bite you on the arse bigtime one day, you know that?
Yes it is tmfp one from 65 and one from 70. Yes I’m still struggling with it abit.
I suppose I could dump them soon if it approaches Nicks 850.i don’t know though,it wouldn’t take much of a further push on the Dow to exceed b/e.I still stand by my feeling there’s a big push up coming from the Dow.
Ok….. *bangs head on wall* you had that ‘feeling’ before it dropped nearly 200 points, that’s the trouble with “opinion” on anything, humans are very reluctant to change them.
At least think about averaging down when you see the chance, dangerous I know, but when someone like Nick calls a long, think about it, or what’s the point?
That averaging down is something I used to do a lot tmfp but I try to avoid it now as it can compound the problem and increase the emotional side of holding a losing position for a retracement. It’s just what I have found,it can be advantageous but I have found that when I get in a hole it’s best to stop digging.
I’m not familiar with the City Index Platform but wonder if it’s because of how the platform is set up. With IG it’s kind of intuitive to set up Stops/Targets R/R. Just a thought…
Hi Hugh i do think from what others have said that IG seems a good platform but the R/R side is my responsibility,i don’t blame it on anything else, thanks though, the other side of the coin is like you said the other week…..all my trades are getting stopped out and then going in the desired direction. I just believe in my heart I have to let the market breath because I know I can not predict moves in this environment with an accuracy of 5-10 points.
Sorry to barge in, but you’re obfuscating.
Nobody can call 5-10 points with any accuracy in these markets (apart from me 😉 ), but you’re running -100 and then hoping for b/e??
The “stopped out then it goes the right way” doesn’t wash either, nothing to stop you taking a loss on a poor entry and replacing it on better terms.
Hi Anstel,
If you don’t practice using stops you will get caught out one day and lose all your gains in one trade. Practice using stops, its difficult when you start because most trades are getting stopped out and moving in your favour but then you start to learn how to refine your stops. It serves well in the long term.
What sort of distance are you placing stops chaps,I know tmfp has used 15 pt stop earlier,how do you work out your stop distance or do you just guess?
Everyone it telling me you use stops, thanks guys maybe My thinking is all wrong on this,bloody hell I think one thing and everybody else thinks the other,I suppose I must be wrong,it’s just hard going against your own ways of doing it. I don’t know what to do about this now?maybe it’s time to stop?
In response to RJ yes I have done what you said about losing all my gains in one trade, so you are dead right….when I started I was trading to much size,I have pulled the size down now I realise how it can runaway from you.
My Stops are mostly between 10-15 points rarely sometimes its 25. But I work out it based on the risk I commit to a trade. I always keep say for example £100 pounds risk on every trade, if the stop is 10 points then I put £10 pp if its 20 point stop then £5 pp and so on. For me it depends on the setup, candle formation and depending on probability of that trade.
I see RJ I’m presuming you use the 1% risk per trade rule,I think for me I would much prefer to say trade £3 per point and have a 33 point stop.i know if I use stops I need to give them plenty of room,like I said to Hugh a week or so back small stakes but wide stops,I’m struggling with this stop placement it’s my big area of conflicting opinions so I will need to find the middle ground…Thanks RJ.
Morning All,
RSI Trio Fast approaching on this pull back.
5830 area would the inflection point.
Still positive ..
Looking for 5837
Will change view on a close below 5824 – 5820
I’ll give it a punt short at 40 15 pt stop
Three shorts at 40, one for rsi looking for ~10, one for longer term holding, one for luck.
Not sure it’s sound ..
I’ve got one eye on the USD/CAD – that’s taking a hit lower.
Inverse to FTSE.
alright then, I’ll take +7 on the luck one and stop the other two at b/e.
out at 39 on one, still running the other stop 49
Chippy chop – Short 5834 …Stop 46
initial target about 5822
added a few at 39 – Stop 5849
Bloody Germans, old Draggie must have handed out some brown envelopes last night.
Stopped
I’m thinking it’s the $ .
Have a look at the USD/CAD.
Probably me going off on one **!! 🙂
Strong dollar/Europe equities + Chinese capital flight…
2+2?
LoL 🙂 Me going off on one !
It lost it’s momentum briefly.
No close below 5824 though.
I’ve moved this to 5830 now.
If anybody interested
seminar at 11 am
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1362920900933704193?utm_source=Forex+17K&utm_campaign=9d41d9cce3-Webinar_28_10_2015_02_11_non-openers&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_55c189a66b-9d41d9cce3-113448465
How you doing Paul ?
I think it will be 9740 on Dax for short.
Dax is well on its way to 9940 not today but in next two days. I’m holding my long from 580 hopefully doesn’t get stopped out.
It may easily do. Now it’s at 9740 now but there’s no sign of short. I closed +5, not worth the risk.
However I don’t rule out a possibility of some short later in the day. If Nick drew an arrow it may worth something. Atm my EMA are really against short as the huge impulse is in progress.
What would be nice is to see a pull back to 9670-9650 area to enter some long.
It is a possibility Jack, Dow will give more direction. Im looking to add to my position as well so a pull back would be good but not so much to stop me out 🙂
And +100 in four hours, you got to love it!
Enough already, yet another short this time at 870…showing +3 on the day so far despite being completely wrong lol
What’s this strange formation? A lower low??? Where’s my investopedia?
Took +10 on half, yeeehaa
Bit of art for you here tmfp…’cos I know you lav it 🙂
This is what I was using this morning – just couldn’t get it to print earlier!
http://ec.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10_2/display_chartimage.phtml?name=7eoc5l7jg8coa61w8h3tbbx2x&type=png&purpose=file
& the USD/CAD chart
http://ec.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10_2/display_chartimage.phtml?name=id6x1oy0zs3t4xpmzaprt2qyb&type=png&purpose=file
I expect a five star rating for both these by the way 🙂
Thanks Hugh, reminds me of my 70’s bedsit wallpaper. 🙂
Easy in hindsight isn”t it?
Not even one rsi long entry all morning after the base, 40 held like it does on trend up sessions, I should have spotted around 5830. With hindsight.
Still rockin’ on with my half stake 70 short, high of the day without a doubt #youwish
Probably get an oversold bounce off 50ish this visit, wouldn’t long it but may cover the short, otherwise b/e stop. Again.
Took the +20 and reshort at 64
and a bit more at 76
It’s actually quite difficult to follow in realtime on a 1 minute, especially when you get the drawbacks – just like we’re getting here 5860 – 5862. Longer time frame perhaps works a little better….(Larger Stops or more precise enteries to reduce the Stops)
3 Min version(s) here
http://ec.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10_2/display_chartimage.phtml?name=3yewpre3u3in4l7mlxehz5wqi&type=png&purpose=file
And yesterday’s as it what a bit of a bitch….
http://ec.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10_2/display_chartimage.phtml?name=svseer9cf4p663eiya3zyjjn6&type=png&purpose=file
Afternoon chaps, what on earth is going on here?! 100 point rally, that can’t be right.
My plan is still to wait but if they get DJ to 16,000 or FTSE to 5900 I’m going to start throwing some ammunition at it or both. It can’t be that cold in America that they’ve suddenly used up a gadzillion barrels of oil per day….can it?
Patience of a Saint, not! Short at 67
Fruitless task so far today being short mate, you are getting the measure of swings as good as anyone at the mo.
If it has been some Chinese money buying today in Europe equities and the $, I’d expect it to carry on this afternoon in the DOW, back into the 16000’s, how far anyone’s guess, but probably take us up for a look at 900 the way things are going.
Limit in to add at 900. The way I see it my max downside is 950 ish where upside is 750 ish. We’ll see but I don’t think we are wrong!
Chinese money…..According to something I read some while ago, the Chinese have been mopping up Oil during this downward spiral, which means 2 things – 1. They’ve got some expensive ones and 2. They haven’t got enough money to stop the fall!
Bugger….again, missed 900 by a whisker!
I think you’ll get a second chance soon mate.
Added at 900, for the record!
anstel says:
January 26, 2016 at 12:01 pm
“Everyone it telling me you use stops, thanks guys maybe My thinking is all wrong on this….”
anstel, it’s not time to stop, it’s time to think.
If your loss got to -100 and you are stopped on -100 and the trade goes to your direction (goes to b/e, then into profit).. – it doesn’t mean that the price was against you, it just reached where it was going. It could have been someone’s profit if one held in the opposite direction. So there’s no point to “hold a price” which is moving against you. A, yeah, you hope. But hope doesn’t turn price either, it only buys you time to hope and HOLD WHAT WOULD HAVE BEEN A WINNING TRADE FOR SOMEONE. But you’re holding it against you.
Stop loss is placed at that point at which you understand that your trade plan ceased to exist. In other words, if you enter after retracement you put stop loss above it, or above the previous high if you’re not sure if retracement hasn’t been complete yet and if the amount of points is not too large.
It is also useful to read blogs about stop losses to understand them better.
I wrote something before saying: you should be scared to lose more than your stop loss rather than losing stop loss itself.
Thanks Jack 2,I remember reading your post about stops and I thought it was very good. I’m finding the whole stop placement side of trading an area I can’t seem to decide on ..it’s a problem to me,everybody says place stops,it doesn’t sit right with me,it just doesn’t,I think the compromise for me is to trade small size with wide stops……it’s either that or Im gonna have to stop trading………I can’t go against my own ideas and be happy trading,and if I’m not enjoying myself I’m out of here.I don’t know,I just don’t,but when everyone is telling me to place stops I have to listen………???? Thanks everyone for your well meaning advise and experience.
Placing a stop is accepting you were wrong and putting a price on it.
Just like real life
🙂
It doesn’t sit right with me either. Do you know my battle with stop losses? I still forget to put them sometimes. But when you burn occasionally, you kind of remember the importance of them. At least now I know where they should be places, more or less. But after several years I understood that only this was a reason why I am not successful atm. I would be ahead right now if I sorted it earlier. But you have to do it, and I make myself do it.
Sometimes I place stop loss and I see the price creeping to it and I get quite agitated and even scream, but I hold my palms. In the end I say: just stuff yourself with my stop loss, greedy b.s. But it does help. And it turns, lol.
You also said: “If I’m not enjoying myself I’m out of here”
Who told you that trading is enjoyable? Without SL you feel like a punter, excited and it’s more enjoyable. But when you put SL and watch your trade, it’s actually quite boring. It’s a job.
Hey Anstel,Jack said it,although it depends a bit on the timeframe with me,so very short timeframe,riding momentum,indicator,whatever,makes a small numerical S/L easier to apply/accept,but I’m working on getting that short term thing right.”Stop loss is placed at that point at which you understand that your trade plan ceased to exist. “It is the opposite of waiting for confirmation to enter a trade,so the last surge on Dax was a buy over 20 not 4 to 17 or whatever the range was and,as with that entry stuff,with S/L’s watch that you arent in a place that someone might hunt in a popular timeframe,eg obvious S and R levels.Trade off indicators or Patterns and the point you are wrong is clear,so the S/L area is too.A triangle breaks out and the other side of it means it wasnt a valid indicator that time.The only danger is backing the trend,being wrong in,say,5mins from an indicator that failed and moving the S/L to a 15 min range or something,that sometimes works,but encourages you to risk more and more which wont work,so it’s bad trading.
Really it is just about the timeframe you are working I think,so if you start with a larger Timeframe then Hedging to trade opposite it in a shorter timeframe whilst it works is fine,that is a separate thing I think.
The way I see it and have done since I started trading is we are trading a market…….It goes up and down and with the best will in the world and as much as I try I can’t get the feel of the market right every time….By the same token with all the skill at technical analysis of some really top traders….they can’t get the feel of the market either…….it’s like watching the smoke coming out of a steamship,it only really tells you where it’s been.To find out where it’s going you have to ask the captain…….( it’s a quote from Larry Williams but it’s true in my mind). What we do know however is at some point the ship will come home…. Unless it sinks!!!! That’s why I prefer the idea of placing a hedge at the point where you might have put a stop and if you get it wrong the hedge will hold the loss by making a profit,and if it’s say 15 points below b/e when you see an indication that the market is turning and going to move in your original direction dump the hedge,obviously you can get stuck in a bear trap or bull trap but you have to be decisive,I’ve been doing this on the Dow with good results but because it’s unorthodox practice I just keep my mouth shut…….Who actually tells us to use stops,it’s on all the trading education videos,the company’s recommend it.the way I see it the more I’m told that the correct way of doing things by company’s and organisations is a certain way the more I look for reasons to do it the opposite way.You guys all mean well though and I thank you all for it .With the acception of a financial collapse……which is a very real possibility……but with that acception the way I see it it’s a market ,it goes up and down,that’s what it does,so keep it small and wait,it only costs 50p a night and you get another trip round the racecourse and another chance of a rosette.
Last comment for me: of course, nobody gets it right all the time. Yes, we know markets go up and down.
The whole point of a trading strategy is to minimise the effects of your mistakes. Whether you want to ‘hedge’ or stop is up to you, but don’t just sit there like a rabbit in the headlights, -100 on a trade which was only a +20er anyway, with crossing your fingers being the entirety of your ‘strategy’.
And the implication that stops are some sort of establishment conspiracy….keep it real.
It may go 1000 points into the opposite direction. It happened to me, then I learnt my lesson, I had to wait 4 years for that. But it happened. And it happens all the time. Look, only from 1st January this year Dow has moved 1500 points and somebody is still sitting, hedging. What for? It may drop now another 2000. Is your account that big?
OK, you want to learn on your experience, fair enough.
I think that’s really what trading actually is……..it’s waiting.
A comment for Jack when you are hedging you are not running anymore risk than you originally had,so it’s a way of making points in volatile markets with minimum risk.
I wouldnt disagree,just think that how it looks is a timeframe issue and that taking an entry from the 5min and off the 15 + are very different and that if they are long entries when the day trend is down and below all the major SMA’s then you need to be sure that the win rate and R/R over time is keeping you ahead and doing it better than a numerical S/L at 20 or anything else would with the same win rate.You can always get losses back.Once you know your stats that’s clear,so it makes losing 60 for every 100 you bank or whatever acceptable.Once you have a reliable win rate for a long run of trades you can see how to try adjusting what you do to increase your pay.What you can get away with is all about your entries and S/L’s are just the same process backwards.I think what you are doing is 15min + chart concept with an entry from a lower timeframe chart and at 15 min and up tech entries are a bit more reliable anyway,so no reason it shouldnt work and no reason to ignore tech entries and not give them space.Re Dow,that is a mkt with wider volatility,it’s expensive to experiment on,so worth trying what you are talking about on the Cac when it is trending and the Dax imo,also with ASX 200 you can experiment with a very low stake,but that has a clunky kind of movement that you might not like.It is pretty hard to see how ASX can get a sustained up turn though so that is a plus (subject to BOJ this week).
Yes WSF it’s really interesting,I like the hedgeing and I use the 15 min chart a lot your right,I have never traded the CAC.im playing around with this hedge theory of mine with the minimum stake,I was going to do it on a demo but I need to have money involved.this last couple of weeks I have had a lot of success hedging and I only got stuck in a bear trap once so overall I’m quids in,ironically the hedge I shut at a loss came right back into profit as well but I lost my nerve and thought it was an acceptable price to pay to not get stuck if it rallied strongly.sometimes if I have a long position over the weekend I will hedge that for security reasons after the Paris Events bit me as well.its all a learning process,tell you what you have to be really on your toes to get a good hedge entry to avoid getting stuck in jail without paying bail though.
Impressive recovery.
Pleased I had stops on the earlier positions 🙂
5892 Monthly Resistant Line coming up.
Good cos I added to my short there, which averaged me out at 77, which I just escaped at break even. And now we’re off to the moon again by the looks of it.
Doing a chippy and sitting on my hands for now.
Too difficult at the moment….
Off out for a bit…
Scalped 13 points 69-82 or something dax.
Nick, you still see this dropping from here as per your last arrow or has it gone too high now?
Back shorting again, 05 is the latest probably fruitless attempt, very tight on the st*p l*ss front
took 5, “picking up dimes from in front of a steamroller”
and again at 07, see if divergence still works
Although it could go +50 more in a trice. the DOW’s not looking exactly over enthusiastic at the mo (lol up 25 while I type, out for -3) Try again 20/25
the trick that gets played on a trending day, shows all signals to reverse as soon as you enter it just goes in the same direction like 20 points.
Instant +10 on half, cooking on gas now
You’re telling me, I’ve been shorting for over 100 points now today 🙂
Picked up a few dimes though on balance, had a bit of fun and one of these will stick for a few sooner or later.
It just got played on the Dow 🙂 All looked ready for a short and goes up 30 points typical.
Just an update on those two longs of mine closed the 65 long for 40 points and the 70 long for 35 points crap R/R I grant you but I’ve put points in the bag…..whether it was right or wrong from a txt book point of view I don’t know but I’m happy with that.
🙂 you could try trading it again on paper to see how it could have made more and what you would have done if this had gone like Aug and if it still works then it was right and so it’s safe to repeat it.
I could I suppose WSF but every situation is different,I think everyone is looking for the holy grail with systems and strategys and charts etc. to make it safe to trade,in reality I think we have to embrace risk and not be scared of it. I think tmfps RSI 10 is the best Keys to the sweet shop I have seen up to now but I really like hedging because it’s additional risk free. I think the Keys to trading are and in no particular order……Patience.,wait for the market to come to you …..emotional regulation…..very important when the pressures on……..Larry Williams has a great formula for it……to find your emotional limits. E = m c 2………your emotions are equal to your money in your account……x the number of contracts in the market…… You just have to find the sweet spot not too big in terms of position size. If it had gone like August I would have hedged it ………I think hedgeing is an important tool…… And lastly the thief in the night……don’t take profits too early…..but don’t let them run dry either.ive done that loads of times by being too greedy. I think if I had to say one secret to trading I would say………psychology. Controlling the emotions of fear and greed.
Just on a forward thinking note here,the A50 is around the 9000 mark approx,it’s in the realms of possibility that it could bounce up to 9300 I would say quite comfortable which combined with the fed data tomorrow could push the Dow up and the Ftse and Dax could follow suit.tmfp said if you think something say it…..so for what it’s worth that’s my thoughts on the next 18 hrs.
Cant see any of the comm economies getting out of their situations easily,but ASX 200 is 4989 with 100 odd points a day as a big day and closed last yr at 5350 odd,so for practicing stuff with low stakes it looks perfect,the exchange rate makes the min stake according to the mkt info only 24p,so not as exciting or profitable as Dow,but probably safer for experimenting.Cac is good for making money too and it closes,so you can walk away from open positions however they are structured.I was doing France a lot during the greek thing and it was good,cant remember why I stopped.
That ASX 200 could be perfect for practising WSF,if it works out at 24p a point that could be great.i have never looked at it to be honest,could use it as a low stakes practice indice to practice hedging thanks.You doing the graveyard shift tonight?
I’m going to see where the Dow is when it closes,feeling tired for a Tues.
Ok.
Enjoying this ride on the Dax..will we get 9940 today ?
You really have a great feel for the Dax RJ and it’s the hardest IMO.
I have taken another half of profit at 844 (264 points) and 1/4 remaining at b/e. It needs to break 850 for further upside.
I think it’s all the fed data out tomorrow,buy the rumour and all that.
Great trade – RJ.
Just looking at those entry candles at 580 – pins.
Impressive trade –
Thanks Hugh, just practicing the art of holding when its showing a profit. Works really well if you can handle the pressure of blue ink 🙂
The nice thing about holding a losing position is it makes holding a winner a piece of cake:0)
There is NO nice thing about holding a losing position 🙂
#lastword
I’m just a misguided eternal optimist tmfp :0) last word 2
When I indulge in trend trading I use a trailing stop sometimes, don’t particularly like them unless they’re fib based though
Thanks for advising against Short today 9740. That really helped. Yes I missed the morning rally (I had an important meeting today) but I got some points on the way.
I still think 16250 is in the script in the next day or so.
Why did you just sell your ftse long then lol? Love ya really anstel 🙂
I’ve got another one but don’t tell anyone,I’m getting enough sh@t today so keep it quiet :0)
And the MHH already, time flies and all that.
A battle between squeezed shorts and profit takers probably, so a bit choppy. Bulls would love a 5900+ close and they’ll probably get it.
Buy the dip?
Was that the dip then? B/e stop again on the other half I guess..
out at 18 and long 10 either way Didn’t short then bottom may as well buy the top
and out for un point
Another crazy day at the office, no doubt another one tomorrow.
Take it easy 🙂
Short 16130 target 15685. 40 point stop. Small stakes
Green army :0)
Derek Adams green and white barmy army.
It’s amazing what I learn on here, if I get asked in a pub quiz what colour the away kit is I can say purple now!
Lilac Anstel, not purple.
I stand corrected sir.
I’m doing alright though considering on Friday I thought you were Scottish lol.
Anyone sense a bull trap?
Hope it is Ravi, short on Dow from 16130 and have broken the cardinal sin of raising the stop level.
Oil not showing any sign of falling, up 1.5 Dollars a barrel today. Probably needs to start falling before a sell off starts.
Not yet ,with China later and fed tomorrow but I can feel the possibility of a short in my future tomorrow.
Oops sorry argyle I thought you were out at 170.
You could dump it now argyle for no loss
Sorry I’m not thinking ….your stop was 170 my apologies
No Anstel this is staying till 15685. Will be there by end of week or early next week. The rise in oil is technical not demand driven. As Nick says 25$ A barrel is on its way. When it does FTSE won’t be worth more than 5550. Then buy Oil and FTSE and wait.
Ok
http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/290806/ftse-100-recovers-early-thrashing
“Unfortunately, currently FTSE Futures need to better 5,930 to signal that a bottom is ‘in’ and, as a result, any rise is liable to fall short.”
Bet he thought that was a safe statement earlier 🙂
Quick top scalp for 15 points still got sweaty shorts from earlier. Like argyle, I think oil is a correction not the bottom, mind you can’t see 25 bucks.
Off to stuff my face, bangers and mash, food of champions.
Oil fallen by 1$ a barrel in last hour. Dow down 60 points since closing bell. Only one way this is going to go overnight and in the morning.
I think it’s more to do with Apple’s earnings. Dow futures are significantly off as Apple missed revenue and units sold estimates after closing bell.
Just woke up and had a look…… A50 is hovering just below 8700………it’s weaker than I thougt.Dow is down to 16043 to sell so considering how China has dropped its not holding up too badly…..Back to Bed
Just quickly to add …… the Dow has bounced up 35 pts in last few minutes,A50 bounced 65 pts Ftse at 5905 to sell.
Dax at 9804 to sell for RJ and Jack 2.
It’s bouncing hard…..Dow now at 16101 to sell Ftse 5915 to sell,Dax 9824 to sell…..A50 has only risen to 8750.