7th April 2017
Good morning. The U.S. launched a cruise missile attack against Syria after accusing Bashar al-Assad’s regime of using poison gas to kill scores of civilians, an act that drew international condemnation and that President Donald Trump called “‘an affront to humanity.” Markets reacted as you would expect with equities dropping and gold climbing, and of course we also have NFP later today at 13:30. Forecast is 180k versus 235k previously. If the Syria situation escalates into a full blown conflict then we will probably see Gold at the $1500 level fairly soon, as well as the 6500 on the FTSE 100!
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
For today I am watching 7329 for resistance where we have the 25ema on the daily chart. This is the first time this has been bearish since it went to a bullish state on the 7th December 2016. For support I am watching 7250. We have bounced off that a few times over the past few weeks, and if it breaks then we are likely to get a drop down to 7200 and lower in fairly short order. Which is probably why its being so heavily defended by the algo’s!
With the news of the missile strike already affecting the markets at 2am, we might see a bit of an initial rise on the FTSE 100 towards the 7329 resistance area. If we go above this then 7347 is the next area of note where we have a key fib level and is half way between R1 and R2. Should the bulls really go for it then the top of the Bianca channels are at 7368 and 7378. If NFP is considerably better than forecast then we might well pop higher.
I am thinking we will have a bit of buy the rumour sell the news as its NFP today. But please bear in mind that it will also be a bit of a freaky Friday – lower stakes are often a good plan so as not to undo all the profits from the week.
So simply watching to see if we get a rise to 7328 this morning, and also if we test 7250 again, if it breaks then its a short…
Ftse stronger than other indexes…but shows hidden selling as oil up 2% and £/$ down 0.5% ftse you be flying up…
Yes, ftse looking to breakout upwards. Failure to retest 7250 in the overnight drop is also a positive for the bull case.
Why NFP is at 12.30 but not at 13.30 as usual?
Are you sure it’s 12.30? Nothing happening.
Its at 13:30 Jack
Oh Thanks, cos I’m not getting it why it is so slow, doesn’t look like a news movement.
Any special plans for NFP? 🙂
I have no idea where it’ll go. I don’t like NFP and always feel unsure of direction. So I am not rushing to go in and wait if it drops below 12155 to catch short or rises above 12200 to catch long but the last is maybe not the best idea.
At the moment it looks like short has starting on Dax. Lots of supporting lines on top. Hopefully it is short.
Now it looks like long, I don’t know honestly.
Could be upthrust to kill shorts and a drop, that’s the hope.
Ha, it’s always the opposite to what you think. LOL
I wish Nick gave us some update if it’s going up or down, would be great. 🙂
I think at best 7330 area. That’s where the declining trend line on 4hr is. Sustained breakout above that is another leg up
Here’s a prediction of mine – market will close at 7330 area or 7250. Keeping everyone guessing what’s next. Suspect it will be 7330 😉
Sounds as a good idea. Looks like this short is wearing out.
Engine revving at resistance. Next hour should give some clues about direction hopefully
Reversal on dow and ftse. Short at 7331
No reversals, had enough today. I’m off.
Yes, think I went in a wee bit early. Would have held off if I was 15 mins more patient.
Lets see
Once again the data released supports the idea that interest rates will support stocks for the foreseeable future. Not sure the markets will hold onto these gains by close of business, but I see nothing to make me drop my longs. Looking to add to longs next week.
Price has certainly stalled. Have to watch how it goes nearer to close
Out for -10.
Have a good old weekend guys