UK GDP 2.2 | 25 point dividend | FTSE 100 Resistance 7311 7335 | Support 7271 7252

22nd February 2017

FTSE 100 Support 7280 7271 7266 7252 7247 7235 7225
FTSe 100 Resistance 7300 7301 7311 7338 7356 7375

Good morning. Another strange day on the FTSE 100 yesterday with the drop down on the poor HSBC results but finding support at the 7268 where we had the 10 day Raff and rising back to hover around 7290 for most of the day. All in all it was a pretty tight range 7268 to 7297. We might get a bit of a sideways day again today, with a kick up towards the bell as we have another large dividend today – 25 points – before a dip back down. The US was in a bullish mood again yesterday with the S&P hitting 2366 as its high, or a gain of 0.6%, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Russell 200 Index closing at all-time highs.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

The main thing to bear in mind today is that we have a large divi again, at 25 points. Last week didn’t see a massive divi hunt rise in the late afternoon, but there was a modest rise from 3pm till 4:30. We have UK GDP at 09:30, forecasted a 2.2%, and then at 7pm, the Fed minutes which traders will be watching to see if there are any further clues for a March rate rise (which is widely expected now).

For today I am expecting a slowly bullish day with a rise up towards 7311 with a generally flat sort of feel till later on, when the divi expectation livens things up. We have bearish 2 hour chart at the moment with resistance at 7300 with a coral line there, and we dropped off the Hull moving average at 7301 yesterday. The 30min chart is a bit of a mess to start with today with just that sideways action not giving a clear picture and lots of bunching of candles, moving averages, daily pivot etc as you can see below. It is however on a weak bull to start with as I write this. The bulls will be keen to close above 7310 at some point this week as it keeps the hope of 7360 alive, however they are not really able to follow the other markets up at the moment, with cable tempering the bullishness.

So, I am watching 7310 area quite closely, if the bulls break that then 7338 is the next area of note, while on the support side, 7266 and 7230 where we have the bottom of both the Raff channels. It will be nice if the FTSE 100 can get out of this nasty choppiness that its currently in!

41 Comments

  1. Morning Nick just wanted to mention the dividend info I posted yday……Yday dividend data.gave the figure I quoted yday,11.27 then they changed it to 12.5 and now it’s 24.81 in alignment with your data…..Sorry for any confusion but I could only go off the info I had….cheers

  3. With DOW being up yesterday, most people will be holding long of FTSE to get the 25 point dividend… I’m hoping for a 100 point drop… Cable back above 1.25

        2. Yes I saw 7302 this morning and then it vanished just as fast…..I’m just out of range….I misjudged the strength on Monday …..just one little error can make a big difference…..if I was scalping at this size I would have made a lot of trading tokens but alas I’m just keeping my washing machine in a job at the moment :0)….

          4. Ed Seykota has trading rules…..which are…

            A.cut loses
            B.ride winners
            C.Keep bets small
            D.follow the rules without question
            E.know when to break the rules

    3. In my strategy I have the paragraph saying, that losing trades cannot become winning trades because of the wrong entry. So it is better to come out and re-valuate or reduce the stake.

  8. Ok, so I’m long at av 7290 and I take swing trades, so holding isn’t an issue. Do any of you have experience of which is best to do. Hold on and take the dividend, or sell and buy back?

    1. It’s a tough call that Cowboy……the trend is up……it’s a big divi….but anything can happen…….gotta make your own mind up really….it could spit it’s dummy out over night…..who knows ?

  9. Stupid daily funding, they took extra 5 quid and my trade which finished at 16.32. Keep forgetting that.

  11. Ended up holding. Had a bit of an idea to run past you. 2k dividend. FTSE back at bottom end of the daily range. How about putting it towards an increased position? E.g. market at 75. 20 point stop x 100pp.

    1. No definitely no think what you could lose not what you could gain…..as tmfp says “there’s always another trade”…..we can’t win at trading with one trade it’s consistency over time…..bit like saving up….good luck mate…

  14. Out of long at 7307.3 for a loss of 3.7 pts……I closed at 309.3 but lost out to slippage in a fraction of a second……Dividend was attractive but I need to rest and the consequences could far out way the dividend going into weekend……Not my week,but I’ll be back ….. goodnight all…..

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