27th April 2017
Good morning. Apart from the little kick up at the close yesterday to 7300 as the divi hunters came in, it was a fairly lacklustre day. This was despite the tax cut plans announced in the US, which despite sounding great still have to be implemented and paid for. The FTSE 100 missed the support at 7250 and the main resistance level at 7330, and the S&P failed to break 2400, topping at 2398.5. US/North Korea tensions are still simmering away, though the latest rhetoric from the US is for a more diplomatic solution, after the “show of strength” from NK yesterday.
With the FTSE bulls failure to rise above 7300 it looks like we might be on for some downside over the next couple of sessions.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
I am thinking a bit of a rise and dip day today as it feels like there might be a bit of caution coming in after that rise earlier in the week. I thought the bulls might have managed to push to 7330 by the end yesterday but there were not particularly strong, and gold has climbed back from its low yesterday at 1260, having dropped off the 1267 resistance level we had. Its now back up at 1267. The 2 hour chart has now gone bearish with resistance at 7295, and the Bianca chart has 20 day resistance at 7336 still. The Raff channels are still around the 7320 level as well.
The ASX200 had a bit of a weak bullish day but has hit resistance and dropped off a little bit, and thats the pattern that I think we will follow today as well.
The bears will be keen to break 7240 as that will likely then lead to a test of 7200 and possibly lower.
So, watching 7300 area for resistance, possibly 7330 again, and then 7240 for support.
Nick you looking to buy at 7240…Trend is down…
More tempted to short the rallies so a little bounce off 7240 and then shorts around 7295 ideally. Might not get that high though?
Holding but looks weak
Morning chaps,well I have to confess I’m finding this really tricky at the moment…..this calls for some serious reflection on how ive seen the market behave before in my experience and then try and change my methods to take advantage……there’s plenty of head scratching goin on here good luck guys…..Grommit take me for a walk :0)
It is just an end of that rally, anstel. Support 7263 broken so now it is a pull back. Yesterday was an impulse, today: continuation. If the newly created sloping trend line would be broken there could be more long. For now it looks like we are in a shorting ground.
Dax chart looks more messy at the moment. I didn’t spot that drop at all. But tbh we are talking about a 10 point drop here! No, Dax nowadays is not the same as before.
Hi Jack thanks yeah I’m at a bit of a loss figuring out where we could go from here..only little thing I can see is potentially a double bottom on 5 min Ftse…….I think I will open a demo account and practice going short….good luck buddy…
Yes I just wanted to mention you about that double bottom and besides Nick’s large arrow still shows a potential for upthrust (long outburst). That’s what I see on Dax as well. Pivot is at 7284 but it may not get there as much, but the potential for some kind of long is still there. I don’t want to give you a hope but that’s what I would be thinking and tried to defend 7220-30 area for a possibly closing but this if it gets really bad. Basically 7270-7280 would be a blessing, I would close there if it gets there.
Thanks jack ..my breakeven is 87.5 and with the divi the.loss isn’t too bad…97.5 and I’m up on the trade ..see how we go…cheers.good luck..
I was talking about that little drop at 9.40. 20 points range on Dax is not serious. I need a cup of tea.
Prefer sell on FTSE due to GBP strength than DAX sell which is relatively speaking at a much higher level. First target today must be 7200 and take it from there. Sell signals all over stock markets. Better to edge in of course then add, although one could go all in with stop above yesterdays high for great potential risk-reward.
Anstel,Not sure which chart timeframe you look at. Would suggest you look at daily to see what’s happening now. Compare this with the peak in 2015 😉
Thanks Icarus,I looked at the Daily and it does look like a pullback is due…I tend to use the 3-5 and 15 mainly….but to be honest I don’t really base my trading on the charts….I try and interpret where it’s going by feel and what’s goin on geo politically……I know that probably sounds really stupid but I get the trades right over 70% of the time,where I’m now failing is the speed of reaction to the move…that last trade yday showed me a great gain at 4.30 but I can’t seem to get it closed out in time because I expect a slightly more extended move ….I’m close but no cigar… The Market from early Jan to mid March suited my reaction times….so I could trade size confidently now it’s much smaller size and more volatility but until I can sort out my speed of reaction to the market I’m going to find it harder….
There are some minor differences but broadly the same will repeat over and over and over again!
When’s 5500 Ftse due :0o
With the best will in the world you just never know where the next rally is coming from…
Well end of the year would be excellent: -)
Looks like Dax is trying to repeat yesterday’s pattern: long from support 12425 and then drop somewhere in the afternoon.
Im long gold and expect US stocks to sell off later. Roughly 70% chance of that.
Am long gold also for today at 1265
Hello chaps, hope you are having a better week than me? I am not liking this volatility at all. I much prefer tight little ranges – just ebb and flow and lots of scalping 🙂 Good luck to you all!
I don’t see any volatility, not on Dax anyway. 30-60 points range is not volatility. 100-150 points range is volatility for me.
Hi Jack,I think it probably depends how much experience you have,don’t forget we have been doing this a while and have seen a lot more… If you had been trading for a few weeks you probably would expect 30 pt ranges to be the norm….when I started it was like that 30 pt move in a day….did I get a rude awakening as I got more experience…Take it easy TB there’s so much to learn……
Posting here after a long time..hope you are all doing good..looking to short Dow 21020-30 with a wider stop at 21100.
Well the Dax looks happy enough …Dow seems ok…..but the Ftse doesn’t want to know………just like after the U.S. election….
Dumped it ….need to have a rethink back to last week again….