Good morning. Played out almost exactly as planned yesterday with the rise and dip, though the market must have read my trade plan as it missed the 2 automated orders (short at 6995 and long at 6915) by 4 points on both! Sods law. Anyway, having dropped off from the 6993 area where we had the 25ema on the daily it looks like we are in for a little bit of a dip still, maybe down to 6815. US retail sales figures yesterday came in flat, and the divi brought out a few buyers but not much. Been fairly flat overnight with the FTSE holding around 6930. The daily chart still looks a little bearish, though the bulls will be keen to defend any drop to 6893.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks declined after weaker-than-forecast U.S. retail sales fueled concern about growth in the world’s largest economy, strengthening the yen and sending Japanese shares lower.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1 percent to 152.45 as of 9:06 a.m. in Tokyo. Sales at U.S. retailers were little changed in April compared with expectations for a 0.2 percent gain in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid less than 0.1 percent Wednesday for a third day of losses.
“While U.S. growth is rebounding, it may not rebound as far and as fast as many investors had expected,” Russ Koesterich, global chief investment strategist at New York-based BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest asset manager, said on Bloomberg TV. “The Fed is likely to raise rates this fall.”
The yen gained 0.6 percent against the dollar Wednesday after the sales report. JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its forecast for second-quarter U.S. economic growth to 2 percent from 2.5 percent, with economist Michael Feroli citing a “failure of consumer spending to get out of the gates with any vigor in April.”
U.S. economic indicators have missed expectations since January, according to an index by Citigroup Inc. that measures data surprises relative to market expectations, suggesting the Federal Reserve isn’t getting any closer to raising rates.
Japan’s Topix index slipped 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 0.6 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to open.
China Shares
China’s Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.6 percent on Wednesday, halting the benchmark index’s biggest three-day rally since January, as energy and financial companies slumped after fixed-asset investment slowed to the weakest pace in more than 14 years in April and industrial output rose less than expected.
New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index dropped 0.2 percent. Reports showed the nation’s manufacturing growth slowed for a second month in April, while retail sales expanded 2.7 percent in the first quarter, beating economist estimates.
E-mini futures on the S&P 500 gained 0.1 percent today. [Ref]
FTSE Outlook
Todays pivot is 6948 and we also have a PRT resistance line near there; as such I think any rise might falter a bit here. The trend not he daily chart is down at the moment, but the bears won’t be fully in control until 6893 break as there is some decent support there. Below that the the bottom for he 2 Bianca channels at 6880 and 6845 are likely to be seen, certainly while the daily EMAs are negative thats a distinct possibility. As we have stayed fairly flat overnight we may get a little part up at the open or just before but it looks a bit 50/50. I think trying a short off the pivot and a long off the 6893 areas looks the best plays today, but the bulls will be keen to get that 30min chart bullish again as its looking a bit bearish at the moment. Resistance above the pivot is 6988 for the 25ema on the daily, with the top of the Bianca channels above that at 7034 and 7062. The Raff channels not he daily are pretty wide at the moment after last weeks volatility, so unlikely to touch those levels (7150 top and 6780 bottom) today. To start things off and why I think we may get an initial rise, the 10min chart looks to be trying for a bounce.
Good morning all.
Looks like my first target has already met
goldtrader says:
May 13, 2015 at 11:45 pm
This is how I intend to trade tomorrow FTSE
Short at or around 6941 target 6903 6858
4H Support at 6903
Second Support at 6843
Daily Support at 6763
==========================================
Secondly, If the FTSE breaks and sit above 6951 by 9am and depends on INDICATORS, I will go long at that price with a target to 6980 Weekly Resistance 7059 and Daily Resistance 7093 are my target.
But I prefer SHORT for tomorrow.
Don’t quite understand your “target being met” bit, mate… Surely your first target was to be short at 41 which hasn’t happened since your 11.45 pm post and then it went straight through your 03 support.
I know I clog Nick’s page up with my drivel, but I hope you’re not going to put your referral disclaimer on all your posts or it will be impossible to read.
Good Luck.
I do apologise for the link, and have sent a email to Nick to remove the url link.
I took the short at 7pm last night.
Thanks
Ive removed that link. 6941 short wouldn’t have triggered so no need to make out it did.
No hindsight trades here please. Post live entries as near enough to when you do them or don’t bother.
What was on that link?
I stand corrected, official FTSE opening apparently spiked to 41+, would loved to have been on a platform which gave that.
Second chance now too, I have a little short at 47, 10 point stop.
Morning Nick, do you have 11200 as fairly important DAX support?
82 held alright for the moment, interesting day coming up 🙂
11220 is S1 ont he daily, which has held so far
Dax Analysis
Todays pivot is 11407 for resistance,then 11460 above that. Higher up if the bulls pull it out of the hat, are 11523, 11624, 11712. Support is where we are as i write this to start off at 11322, with 11309, 11270, 11219, and then 11196 below that. 11196 is the bottom of the 10 day Raff so worth a long around this level. Also looks bearish today on the shorter time frame charts so short off the pivot and long off the 10 day Raff looks a decent play.
Thanks
Dear Nick
Please could you remove the link to my blogger link from the post of last night and this morning.
i accidentally put the link on my post and apologise for any inconvenience
Well the 6895 long has turned out well, just closed at 6948 and gone short 6947
Nice one, you and me both, but I got in at 85 lol (and out at 20 🙁 )
Looking to cover my 47 soon 20ish for a bounce
Out at 20 and a little long, now b/e stop
took 10
Nice, Im all out – half at 6922 and half 6930
Nice bash straight into the pivot
What the point of putting orders if they are always missed? If you spared a bit more points the orders could have been triggered. I mostly place trades manually. What the point to rely on orders? (for Nick) Sorry for mho.
I was out all day Jack so set up orders as not watching the screen
PS) they aren’t always missed. Had 2 set today, long at 6895 and short at 6947. Both taken, both made lots of lovely points
Never mind. I guess it’s just an illusion I got as over the years you perhaps mentioned them more often than the ones which were taken. Sorry it was somewhat silly to comment on that but couldn’t help.
Short 56 10 stop weird one this
took 7 lost my rythm here
I decided not to short Dow for time being. It looks rather bullish comparing to mates FTSE and Dax. It might be heading to 18200ish and may even break up.
Yes, I have been looking at the disconnect between DOW/FTSE recently.
I used to arbitrage a lot and am paper trading the diff at the mo. A bit difficult to get the ratios right, probably settle on 2.5:1, with a .5% regression to mean based on an average of 15:00 to 16:30 the previous day, when both markets are real trading.
Might get a bit busy to run it independently parallel to day trading, but I’ll maybe soon start closing positions in the other index and unwinding later, as a trial.
Gosh, that was simple. LOL
Yeah, reminded me of one of your long/short posts Jack 😉 lol
That’s what I thought too. We just like to complicate things, aren’t we?
I am short again at FTSE 6951 with a s/l at 7041 and target 6896
lets see how it goes
How long have you been trading?
Wide stop!
Yep, 90 points loss against 55 points win – not worth it.
Hello Jack2,
S/L doesn’t normally get hit as I usually average my stake with positions at supports and resistance level, when market turns against my positions…
Thank you
Oh, I know exactly what averaging is, it could cost dearly. What will happen if it actually reaches 7041 with all your averaging positions? Will you close or just hope it will go down eventually?
yeah a little wide with a small stake sizes, always try to breakeven with averaging the FTSE. I will add some more a d 6969 as the 4H RSI is still below 50%.
Short 60 10 pt stop
Out for b/e, still like the short side though but DAX is looking quite healthy
Trying another short @ 68
Still have in my head that the DOW will have a bit of a meltdown sometime this week, 18200 is reminding me of 7100 on the FTSE recently.
taken 14
I will try a short on dow at 18210 for a 18156 or laternatively will try a long from 18086
17920 has a nice sound to it 🙂
Would probably equate to another test of 6880 for us.
And short again at 76…..by the law of averages I’ll pick a top soon 🙂
Stop b/e after that mini fail, may be another push up towards the close, neither DOW nor DAX selling off from highs, just moving sideways.
well done mate, looks like the FTSE is closing at 6951 area
No cigar there GT, that was the push up that I thought was on the cards into the close, I just didn’t expect the dip first.
Overthought that, b*gger it, would have been a 100 pts for the day 🙁
Pip pip!
where is DOW heading any idea..
My system has a Extreme High for today at 18261, am thinking of taking a short from there
It’s heading where it’s always heading: up. I just don’t understand why people still trying to pick up the tops like profi and get caught up. It’s just no point, it will stop where it will stop. It could be 18550 next month who knows. But it should at least touch all time high 18282.5 and push higher. It’s not the first time I see people doing it here so I always ask the same question when I see someone trying to do the same: “How long have you been trading?” which you ignored by the way.
Last time I asked this question to somebody who was trying to short Dax and gave up in the end and lost money. It was just a month or so ago.
Thanks for your advice Jack2. I have dot aim at picking the top or bottom, I try to profit from the middle, few points here & there.
Good call on 18550, it could go further but we the have SELL in May coming soon, although, in the past years things has changed a little.
Well, of course I wish you all the luck, but be careful if you are not using stops. Averaging works if you are in certain range in which you decide to average, but if it goes beyond that it might get out of control.
To be honest I don’t care where the price is going any more. I trade using Price action and some indicators, so basically if I see set up I will trade. Today was a long set up but Nick’s arrows showed a huge arrow down. That put me off going long which I should have done (I did have a brief long just for 10 points)
Well done on your 10 points, although, any advice is good you should always follow your own strategy which presumably worked hard for, any advice is good but ultimately, all come down to you and how you manage our positions, always make sure I have 1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Support & Resistance at hands as my weapon in this business. I take small positions but build on it to profit.
I hope shorting Dow AT 246 is good idea?
Sold ftse long about 20 points ago when it seemed to be topping out. Was holding huge loss this morning. Got burned on the Dax too! Now short S&P at 2120.
Hi guys, what’s the thinking on whether the FTSE will fill the gap at 7025 tomorrow, before a significant drop?
well on my system, 4H support is at 6903 and 4H resistance is at 7059 the pivot BUY level is between 6941/6943 and currently the market is above the pivot level. Which indicate a BUY signal.
There is a resistance at 6993 and a support is at 6888.
On the hourly chart there is a trend line from 11 May’s HIGH – Today’s high and currently the FTSE is below that trend line
To make it more complicated for you – the RSI Daily, 4H, 1H & 30Min RSI is above 50% and seems positive
On the daily chart again RSI is above 50% there is a further trend line connecting the high of 27 April 11 May and to 6988 and if you connect bottom of 15 Dec 2014 00.00 HRS and the bottom of 7 May 2015 its gives a nice triangle –
On 13 may 2015 a doji was born but today’s candle has failed to close above or below the doji, looking at the candles, it apprears that 14 May’s market made an attempt to close below the doji but thats failed and instead the market closed a couple of points below the high of the doji. Which has made the doji a inside bar formation, usually a doji inside bar is a strong signal to whichever side the maket closes within 3 sessions.
any push to the update may temporarily freeze at 7079 where the Weekly resistance line is according to my system.
My plan will be a long at 6941 to target 6993
Alternatively, a short below 6938 target 6903
What I can see now is through the market is heading towards 6941 on the hourly chart – i will put a BUY limit at 6941 and see how it goes.
Sorry for the lengthy analysis, hope everyone find it useful, as always, please do your own research! Its my personal opinion and I take no responsibility for any losses (but don’t mind a bit of profit sharing lol)
Gold is doing my headings……….