Trading help – Support 6666, 6650, 6630, 6580 Resistance 6695, 6712, 6725, 6747, 6780

Good morning, I hope you had a good weekend. Well that was worth having the Greek referendum last weekend as this weekend they are subjected to further austerity demands and we still have no deal. European leaders gave Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras a straightforward choice: ditch his principles or quit the euro.

Greece Latest
Tsipras was presented with a laundry list of unfinished business from Greece’s previous bailouts at an emergency summit that stretched in its 14th hour by 5:59 a.m. Monday in Brussels. Euro-area chiefs gave Tsipras three days to enact their main demands to keep alive chances of adding bailout funds of as much as 86 billion euros ($96 billion) to earlier commitments of 240 billion euros.

With Greece running out of money and its banks shut the past two weeks, the gathering was billed as the country’s last chance to stay in the euro. Tsipras, who says he wants to keep Greece in the currency union, has been in financial limbo since his government missed a payment to the International Monetary Fund and allowed its second rescue package to lapse on June 30.

“The situation is extremely difficult if you consider the economic situation in Greece and the worsening in the last few months, but what has been lost also in terms of trust and reliability,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional index on course for a third day of gains, as investors weighed negotiations between European leaders and Greece.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent to 141.63 as of 9:10 a.m. in Tokyo after dropping 3.7 percent last week. E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreated 0.5 percent, while Japan’s Topix index added 1.1 percent as the yen pared earlier gains.

Euro-area leaders presented Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras with a laundry list of unfinished business from previous bailouts he’d pilloried in opposition and during six turbulent months in office.

“Investors have taken the view for a long time that some sort of deal would happen in Greece, and that still appears to be on the table,” John Calverley, head of global thematic research at Standard Chartered Bank, told Bloomberg TV. “China is far more important. The government has already taken significant measures and we’ll have to see how it plays out this week.”

China reports trade data after two days of gains in the Shanghai Composite Index, where about half of companies were halted following a recent selloff. Even after an 11 percent two-day rebound, the benchmark equity gauge is down 25 percent since June 12.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.2 percent, as did New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index. South Korea’s Kospi index climbed 0.2 percent. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction for trading help
FTSE 100 Prediction for trading help

Fairly positive start to the FTSE helped by a positive Asia session on the hope that a deal is going to be done at some point. On the ASX, after an initial drop it rallied back and I think the FTSE will follow a similar pattern – mainly as we are testing the top of the daily channels as I write this. We have 6695 (top of 10 day Bianca) 6712 (top of 20 day Bianca) and 6707 (top of 20 day Raff) as well as the monthly pivot at 6691. So, for today I am thinking that we have an initial dip off the daily channels, mostly likely down to the daily pivot at 6666, though we do have the 6650 level as support just below that. At the moment the moving averages are bullish on both the 10 and 30min charts so I have a slight bullish bias as I am writing this, and we did have a decent Asia session.

So, looking to go long on any initial dip from the 6680 area, at around the 6650 support area, and we may see 6666 daily pivot just about hold. Support below 6650 is at 6630 and then 6588 though I do expect 6650 to hold this morning. Some Greece news thats positive will easily push us through those daily channel resistance lines, but for the moment we have a fairly tight range between support and them. Which one will break first…..

51 Comments

  1. Stopped my overnight 6670 short at b/e after missing the 30 target by one. 🙁
    If there is a deal, I wonder how Tsipras is going to sell it to an electorate who voted nearly 2:1 against only a week ago? Greek politics have driven mad better men than me.
    Technically we’ve made new highs, filled the late June gap, hit 50% retracement and broken the downtrend if we close 6700+.
    No idea what’s next, scalping only for me today.

      1. I quite liked the theory that Tsipras was expecting to lose it, so there would have to be another election which would buy some more time.
        Trying to work out politicians’ motives is the path to madness.

        Just closing an RSI long from 10 atm @ 26 and shorting at 30ish.

  2. In the next stage I’d expect the Greek parliament and people to voice anger at the terms being imposed. These have aroused a degree of resentment which could threaten eventual ‘resolution’.

      1. Yes, good stuff tmfp — the conduct of Germany and cohorts vis-à-vis Greece might well influence the outcome of our promised referendum!

        1. The crucial difference is that we’re not trapped in the Euro.
          German policy seems totally focussed on maintaining their trade surplus and internalising it, so a weaker Euro resulting from political crises with Greece etc. would suit them down to the ground.

    1. Wouldn’t argue that that Hugh, got a little 11 long myself, but just a question re stop; why bang on the morning’s low and not a few under it?

  5. Just looking at the DOW –
    Close Friday 17760 -17777 – NOW 17875. (+115 Points.

    17875 is a GAP fill 26th June

    Possible retracement
    17848 – 17818 – 17789 Stop 17907 – Tgt s Calculated using 3 to 1

    Just throwing this in the mix !!

            1. Went in at 28 as well with a stop at 36. Didn’t really do much did it so out for a handful.

  7. Although this bouncing off 6730 is fun and profitable, I think it may come to an end with a strong DOW which doesn’t really have much until a bit of resistance around 17915.
    If we hold 10/20 for the next hour, it may be a good long opportunity for later, with a stop under the 05 low.

    1. DOW 17860 is proving solid just at the moment …
      Next GAP I have above is 17942-17958 (June 26th).
      So take your pick – 17780 or 17942.. (DOW 17870 at the mo).

      Off out for a bit…

        1. A bit overcooked to get properly through this time, but a bit of consolidation could give us a set up for a strong close.

  9. hate Germany. took longs and it wasn’t going and going. Only now was out with modest profit. Good it went eventually otherwise it would be bad, only 33 points was a profit here.

      1. It’s a bit annoying. Since 13.00 Dow was climbing but Dax was actually going down. That created tension on my longs.

      2. Nick – yes probably LoL ! – I guess… I’m thinking that I half expect the upper range 6740 + to be explored at some stage this afternoon …if only to give people the opportunity to square off.

  11. Just caught up with the news that the Greek parliament has approved the swingeing bailout terms. All very quiet considering. But there’s some way to go — the likes of Estonia could still throw a spanner in the works.

    1. LOL Followed an out-of-date link. As I understand it, Greek parliament has to pass terms by Wed. 15. 😀

  14. Hi all, using stochastic on 1 min, 10 and 30min charts, but do I need to have individual settings for each chart or does the default settings of 5 3 3 on IG charts do the trick in these time frames? Any suggestions would be appreciated.

    1. Coombsy — The default setting I have for the stochastic in ProRealTime is 14, 3, 5. That seems to be fine in all timeframes.

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