Trade levels, help with trading and spread betting, support, resistance, prediction

Support 6075 6060 6039 6032 6007
Resistance 6104 6120 6130 6188 6266

Good morning. A very volatile day but within quite a tight range (during the session) showing quite a struggle between bulls and bears. Having opened above 6150 the FT100 fell back and tested the 6100 area before moving up throughout the afternoon to hit 6175. This appeared to look like the start of a nice rally for the next few days however prices dropped sharply very near the close and continued to fall after hours. This seemed to revolve around commodity and oil prices which were stronger in early afternoon but then turned around sharply later in the day. Slightly frustratingly it just missed the 6091 long order on the drop, then miss the 6180 short order after the rise. From 6175 it fell back to hit an overnight low of 6050.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, with the benchmark index set to extend a two-month low, as the yen’s biggest gain in three months weighed on Japanese exporters and health-care shares declined.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.3 percent to 129.67 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, poised for its lowest close since Oct. 6, as health-care and consumer shares led losses. Japan’s Topix index dropped 0.8 percent after the yen jumped 1.2 percent against the dollar on Wednesday, the most since Sept. 1. The regional equity measure is on course for its worst week since September, fueled by a rout in commodities and concern about decelerating Chinese growth, just days before the Federal Reserve decides whether to raise U.S. interest rates for the first time since 2006.

“If you’ve got cash you’re better off hanging on to it and seeing how this plays out,” said Don Williams, Sydney-based chief investment officer at Platypus Asset Management Ltd. “It’s going to get more difficult into the next calendar year and earnings growth is waning. We’re pretty circumspect.”

U.S. crude eventually extended losses on Wednesday, closing down 0.9 percent at $37.16 a barrel after earlier rising as much as 4 percent. It climbed 0.7 percent to $37.40 per barrel today. The dollar fell for the first time in four days on Wednesday as the commodity selloff moderated, boosting the currencies of some resource-exporting nations and the yen.

Regional Gauges
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.8 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd. rose 2.4 percent, paring this year’s drop to 36 percent.

South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.1 percent, with the Bank of Korea widely forecast to maintain its record-low key interest rate Thursday.

New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index retreated 0.4 percent and the nation’s dollar jumped after the central bank cut its key interest rate and said the record-low level should enable it to meet its inflation target.

Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.5 percent in most recent trading, while contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index declined 1.1 percent. Chinese stocks fell for a fifth day in Hong Kong on Wednesday after data showed mainland producer prices slid for a 45th month and the central bank cut the yuan’s reference rate to the weakest level in four years.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.3 percent. The underlying equity gauge fell 0.8 percent on Wednesday, reversing an earlier advance as technology shares retreated. Traders see a 78 percent chance the Fed will raise rates next week. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

That was a pretty bearish fall from the 6175 yesterday just before the bell, which is a bit of a kick in the teeth for the bulls as it looked like there might be a possibility of some upside. That said, we have bounced quite well from the overnight low at 6050. We have the bottom of the 10 day Bianca at 6039 for today so if we do drop again then there is the possibility we get a decent double bottom bounce from that area. The charts are all still favouring downside looking at the moving averages and trend lines, so it will be up to the bulls as to how well they can make the support levels work today. There is a narrow 30min channel to start with, with support at 6080 and resistance at 6205. So, if the bulls can hold that 6080 level initially then it might not be as bearish as everything is thinking. Its worth a long from this area I feel. We have had 5 down days in a row now and the market will, I imagine be keen not to break 6000, if for no other reason than the headlines going into Christmas will be “FTSE drops below 6000 for the first time since September” alongside “UK interest rates to rise after Yellen increases”. Nothing like spooking the masses which they may want to avoid.

59 Comments

  1. Morning.
    Nearly the end of the week again all ready, then Tuesday the Fed, so I’d think that people will start positioning themselves today and tomorrow for that. Loose hand longs and technical shorts probably responsible for this week’s losses, so feels a bit oversold now.
    I can’t see how a stronger interest bearing dollar can be bullish for commodities or indices with high oil and other mineral bias.
    6100ish just holding, like 10500 DAX and 17400 DOW, at the mo so I’m playing long off the dips with tight stops this morning with >6125/30 the first hurdle.
    Big downtrend on DAX best seen on 4hr, ~10700 close would kill that.

    1. Morning,think I’ll go to the GYm, come back after the BOE/US jobs,feels like half the day is gone already & this is an opportunity to pretend I am my own Boss for a couple of hours 🙂 Have a good morning.

      1. Yeah, forgot about BofE at noon, thanks.
        Will Carney’s ego surprise us with a rise?
        Might try a +- 30 play on that.

  3. Morning all, did manage to get some less expensive ones last night (no point in calling them cheaper until they are actually cheap). Seems to be having a rest after (during!) the Santa slap.

    1. Despite the DAX looking good, we’re not showing much interest, could still bungee through 16 and onwards but it’s hard work atm. Stop to 04 give it another little while.

          1. DAX now the laggard, @12 we’re right back on our little uptrend line from 02, so b/e stop.
            DAX bounce off 610?

          3. Well, that’s my 3 x 1 min closes below 8 so I should stop it out, but waiting for the rsi bounce for the time being, as DAX held 10 I’m not seeing to much more than my original 04 stop, which I should have left alone.

            Having said all that, out for +2 lol.

          4. Hi RJ, well DAX has been higher lowing all morning, that was the last support level around 10.22 before the recent high, that’s all.
            If it goes, I’d be looking for 600/590 straight away, but then it’s a short term top and the bear pressure takes over.

            Edit: et voila….

          6. Nice.
            I don’t know if you’re a trendline man, but there’s a descending DAX one on the 1min currently around 15, maybe a profit preserving stop level, but yeah, let it run till the blue ink pressure becomes too much.
            GL.

    1. Well, it may start going (down) but it’d better wait for a proper signal. Don’t like picking the tops.

    1. I did look at your trio this time before asking. But you see, they come out everywhere: at 9.30 it was some kind, not much at 8.24. Now there was trio again. Tricky to know which one to take.
      I did have a short before 10.00am following Nick’s arrow-advice but got out +8.

      1. 9.30 and 8.24 are not trios. It has to be solid candles either side and a doji in between them lower than the two solid candles. If you compare the last two trios I mentioned yesterday plus today you will see that pattern.

        1. The other thing, I will take it everytime I see it. It won’t be successful all the time but over a series of trades and with a good R/R it is profitable. I wasn’t sure this time because I was thinking it would go to 660 but it was just my thinking, what I saw on the chart was different so took it.

        2. Thanks a lot. These 3 trios match perfectly. Now I get what the trick is (I learned about candles a bit but didn’t get deep into at that time).
          You see, my entry into this would be at 10614 at 11.13, much later than you did with less risk. Well done, mate, great job.

  8. Missed the break of 04 for a short but still don’t see collapso collapso this morning, a long off 90 12 either way, keeping an eye on 550/60 holding on the DAX.

    1. I appear to be a bit optimistic with my targets, just missing the 12, once again holding for the mo and probably end up stopping near b/e.
      Tuesday knackered me out, I feel like I’ve got a hangover. Maybe man flu.

  11. If the DAX breaks 590 the high from half hour ago, it will also probably take out the downtrend from 10.49 and if we follow there could be 10 in it to 15.
    Lot of if’s.

    Bad trading but a long for the break at 03, immediate 6pt stop.

          1. Trying too hard, overtrading.
            DAX breaking trendline, out for a couple.
            Time for a walk and get some energy for later.

      2. Lol, right first time…unless the Yanks go crazy, ‘the only way is up’ as the song used to go. Well, a look at 6025 maybe.
        Below 04/590 neutral again.

          4. To be honest, I’m thinking about giving tomorrow a miss Senu.
            I made enough Tuesday to see me through to Christmas but it really exhausted me, I’m looking at the numbers and they’re not making any sense. And I’m not having any fun.
            We’ll see.
            Cheers 🙂

  15. That was the lowest cash FTSE close since the end of September.
    Both times we hit 5900 previously, we had been around 6090 within the previous 48 hours.

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