Theresa May Speech 11:45 | FTSE 100 Resistance 7335 | Support 7282 | Bears turn now

17th January 2017

FTSE 100 Support 7307 7297 7292 7282 7274 7215 7184 7159
FTSE 100 Resistance 7334 7336 7349 7358 7369 7371

Good morning. Well its all eyes on Teresa May today as she sets out the Brexit plan in her speech later today. The thought of that and the US returning from the holiday yesterdays has already seen a slight dip in futures prices, and a flight into the safer ones – gold has risen back above $1200. Theresa May is likely to say that the U.K. is likely to pull out of the EU’s single market for goods and services and seek a completely new trading relationship with the bloc. After months of pressure to provide a detailed blueprint for Brexit, the prime minister’s office is billing Tuesday’s speech as her completed — and final — plan for the negotiations. On Monday night, May’s office said she will announce 12 key objectives for the negotiations, which are likely to include gaining full control over immigration, restoring power over lawmaking to the U.K. Parliament, and ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice over British laws.

Yesterdays short at 7358 worked out well with that fast drop to 7326 before rising back then staying flat for most of the day. We will most likely see more volatility today but the charts are all looking fairly bearish to start with. Shorting the rallies would be a decent play today I am thinking, especially around the 7350 area.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

For today I am thinking we might get an inverted V shape day, buy the rumour, sell the rally if you will. We don’t actually know what time the speech by Teresa May is likely to be, but there is some UK consumer news out at 0930 as well. I have gone for 2 shorts so maybe fade in, so can do smaller stakes and place bets as/if it rises past the initial resistance at 7335. If it breaks above 7358 then its probably going to get higher so flip to long around 7366.

Todays action will depend on how the market reacts to this speech, and initial thoughts are that it will be about a clean break, which the market and business may not be so keen on. if the bears get going on then we could well be on for the bottom of the 20 day Raff at 7284, then we have 7215 below that. I am still looking for a dip down to the 25ema on the daily at 7159 now for a swing long entry.

The daily RSI hit 91 yesterday but with this overnight pullback has dropped back to 82, still overbought though. Yesterday was the first day we closed down after a run of 14 consecutive positive closes.

Initially this morning we are on support from the 200ema on the 30min at 7310 so we may well see the bulls push up from here initially. The ASX200 was fairly lacklustre during their Tuesday session, slowly drifting down, so we may well have a bit of weakness creeping into the FTSE 100 as well.