Support 6960, 6935, 6918, 6909, 6790 Resistance 6989, 7001, 7015, 7090, 7172

Good morning. Well the bulls failed to break back within the 10day daily channel yesterday, with the resistance at 7030 – it started off with the rise to attempt it, but then stalled, pottered about all day, then fell at the end, dragged down by US weakness (or maybe the news that one of the One Direction members was leaving!). I mentioned the 25ema on daily as support at some point soon, thats 6909 for today, a level that we might well head towards if the bears can break initial support at 6960. The Greek situation continues to rumble on in the background too, with the latest being that the Greek government will not receive €1.2bn (£883m) in European rescue funds after officials ruled the Leftist government had no legal claims on the cash. Athens requested the return of money it said was erroneously handed to creditors from Greece’s own bank recapitalisation fund, the Hellenic Financial Stability Facility (HFSF).

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks retreated from an almost eight-month high, following a slump in U.S. equities, as materials and consumer shares led losses.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.6 percent to 148.20 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure rose Wednesday to the highest close since July 30, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell the most in 11 months and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sank 1.5 percent as a selloff in semiconductor shares spread to the broader market. The Asian gauge climbed 8.2 percent this year through yesterday, bringing valuations to 15 times estimated earnings, near the highest since 2010. Still, that compares with 17.4 times for the S&P 500.

“Wall Street is struggling to add to its recent record high and it looks like the upward momentum is starting to show signs of fatigue,” said Matthew Sherwood, head of investment markets research in Sydney at Perpetual Ltd., which manages about $21 billion. “Asia has an advantage over the U.S. as Asia has cheaper valuations. What’s weighing on Asia is the performance of the Chinese economy, which is facing some growth road blocks.”

The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.8 percent on Wednesday, ending a 10-day rally that was the longest such streak since 1992, amid concern the slowing economy is hurting earnings growth. A report on Tuesday showed a Chinese manufacturing gauge fell to an 11-month low in March, suggesting more stimulus may be needed to bolster factories in the world’s second-largest economy.

Japan’s Topix index sank 0.7 percent today, as did South Korea’s Kospi index. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 1.2 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slid 0.6 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to open.

U.S. Slump
E-mini futures on the S&P 500 added 0.1 percent. The Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.4 percent Wednesday, the most since April 2014. The S&P 500 has now gone 26 days without posting gains in back-to-back sessions, the longest stretch since 1994, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The European Central Bank approved an increase of more than 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) in the emergency funds available to Greek lenders, two people familiar with the decision said Wednesday. Greece has until Monday to show how it will follow through on reform commitments after the euro area ruled out speedy access to aid funds, three officials said following a conference call of finance ministry deputies. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We are on a fairly key level as I write this, 6960 and if this holds then we could well get a push up to 7000 to test the bottom of the 10 day channel again. As per yesterday, the bulls need to break back into this channel to push higher, though the live charts pivot is also at 7003 (IG is 6989 after that after hours sell off) so might have a job on their hands. Below 6960, sees the next support at 6935, 6920, and the 25ema on the daily at 6909. There is a PRT line at 6893 so a stop just below this on a 6909 long would be prudent. However, if the bulls have a go early on, and they do seem to have more strength in the morning at the moment, before the US drags things down, then a rise to 7000, and possibly 7015. Above this has 7090 and an unlikely for today 7172 as the levels to watch. This initial support at 6960 is also coming from the 10ema on the daily, though the bulls will have to be quick out the block as everything looks pretty bearish (tight stops on a long from here!). I’m going to be optimistic and go for 6960 holding today for a push back to 7000, but if it breaks that support switch to short pretty quickly to target 6930 or lower.

38 Comments

    1. Yep, once that 6960 broke then 6909 was looking pretty likely, despite what some said yesterday about it rocketing up today

      1. Or a nasty loss on hold, we will see! My broker does not charge Swaps on a short so thought I would leave it and see if I can ride it out or at least close on a 6850ish dip ……….

  6. Great site, very informative, and I visit every day as I’m a keen FTSE and Dow Trader.

    I have to say I disagree with today’s outlook, (and the vast majority of posters going long!) at least in the short term.

    I can’t see it gaining much traction (even though it’s trending upwards slowly at the time of typing this), and I personally think we will still see 6870’s (or lower) today.

    2. Thanks jetbusters, glad you like the site. I can see bounce here maybe to 6950, but if the bounce turns into a rally (unlikely at the moment I think) then we could rise quite steadily for April.

    3. Tell me about it. I disagree all the time. To go long while short trend is in progress – I don’t see any reason for that apart from a wish to part with some more cash. In time you will learn to ignore other people’s trades and thoughts. Just scroll it down.
      It doesn’t make sense, people have their strategies and trade short, long term with different targets. There’s no point to even look at their trades. If you are a learner, yes, you can learn here and even try subscription to Nick. But generally decisions should be yours and you need to develop your own strategy: what you do step by step.
      All I read on this site is Nick’s article with what news are coming and what happened. Cos it helps, sometimes you don’t know what’s gonna happen, look here and ba… NFP day today and I forgot. That helps.
      Also I look at Nick’s arrows, now I started looking at them at the end of the day just to criticize or appraise. I will say the truth about it any time. Generally he gets the right moves while the markets are moving steady into one direction: he predicts bounces well. Normally it is a bounce off the Pivot. When the trend is changing it gets trickier but he still manages. But after that…. he may miss a major fall or rise. Normally fall.
      The problem with Nick, he loves longs, for him longs prevail in his trades. If it’s going long he will predict longs, when it’s going down he will still draw a surprising long arrow which will not work. He loves longs. He never predicts big falls or big risers, just something in between. That’s what I make of Nick’s strategy. Of course he can explain it to you himself.
      At the moment Dow is trickling up. So the task is to wait for this long to break to go short if opp presents itself. It could be today, or tomorrow.

        1. Just to clarify, i prefer shorts as it falls faster than it rises, that is why I flip to short straight away if a stop level gets hit on a long – it will fall down to the next support level, and probably further. Sounds like you don’t have a strategy at all? Mine is moving averages and S&R levels. If i enter at a recognised level then I can have a tight stop. Using them means I don’t trade on trending days as my trades usually fails as the stops are hit. If the stop is hit, then reverse. I don’t always get it right, but then no one does. If they say they do then they are lying.

          1. I do have a strategy, Nick. Indicators and step by step guide. I just don’t want to open it here. It’s not what you do 100% but everybody does their own style.
            But yes, thanks for clarifying it to me. I didn’t know you preferred shorts. It was just my notice of your long inclination for the past year, and of course you are right, we are in a general long trend.
            I know they fall faster and often to the next level. That’s what I use sometimes as a target, when I am lucky of course to catch a move. Nobody gets it right all the time, 100% agree.

        1. Guess thats the problem with posting free analysis – everyone is quick to criticise but not to post their plan of action before the market opens.

          1. I agree Nick, you are brave to do so. However it’s in people’s nature to criticise. And if I step sometimes the line I am sorry I didn’t mean anything against your trading or analyses. Please don’t take it to heart. If we wouldn’t share our thoughts there would be no improvement and progress.

      3. I think that is a bit harsh Jack. Let’s be honest, we all are very different in the way we trade and our views generally- sometimes we get it right and sometimes we don’t, markets are in the main unpredictable. I do not trade like Nick (his approach is far more professional) but the reason I value what he does is because he uses learnt methodology and tends to trade with caution which manages risk. I research many analyst sites before deciding to subscribe here and would highly recommend …… the bottom line is don’t be a sheep, make up your mind using the information you have and what YOU know or believe….

        1. P.S – that was another reason I like this site, the difference of opinion should be embraced! – especially the “lets all diss Argyle, now lets all praise Argyle” comments over the past few months. Listen to every view and make up your own mind, that’s what it is all about

          1. Exactly. Its a hard thing we are doing, so we need constructive comments and posts. Not egos and bashing.

  9. My personal strategy combines technical, fundamental and sentimental analysis, with a variable “weighting” to each type, but I do tend to factor sentimental analysis into my trades more heavily than some.

    trading on the Dow also helps My trading on the FTSE, and for anyone starting out, Id recommend at least watching this market as well.

  10. The plane crash might be weighing down FTSE as well. It was apparently a deliberate crash.

  13. Yep I had expected it to drop through 6890 by now… (My “take profit” point for the day was set to 6873)

    But the longer its holding, the more I’m thinking I’ll pull out at the 6900 mark and bag the 30 points.

    If it doesn’t break by around 3:30pm then as the Dragons say, “I’m out”

  15. Dow/daily has now smashed down through SMA 20, 50 and 100. Downswing has loads of scope to develop — ≈ 17200 a not unlikely destination on that basis.

  18. Ftse always is slow and sulky! When everything was tanking yesterday and I was short I thought it was showing too much healthy support so closed my short with a small loss. What a belting day I’ve had! Ha! The good thing is with these violent swings is that it allows great entry and exit points.

Comments are closed.