Support 6879, 6860, 6818, 6805 Resistance 6907, 6915, 6937, 6950, 7123

Good morning. Well the bulls were out in force with the first support at 6820 holding in the end, and not managing to reach that 6803 level unfortunately. The bulls then ran things right up to 6900, with a close just below, fuelled by hope that Greece will resolve its impasse with creditors. As I mentioned yesterday I am sure they will. Meanwhile, UK inflation dropped to a record low. Prices, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), rose by just 0.3pc in the year to January, from 0.5pc in December, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The FTSE now stands just 32 points from its closing record of 6,930.2, which was reached on the final trading day of 1999 at the height of the dotcom bubble. It is also nearing the intraday record of 6,950.6 touched in that same trading session more than 15 years ago. When everyone is greedy be fearful………

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Japanese stocks climbed, extending the benchmark index’s more than seven-year high, while Asian bonds fell amid speculation Greece will resolve its impasse with creditors. Crude oil retreated and copper futures rose.

The Topix index gained 1.2 percent by 9:18 a.m. in Tokyo, rising a third day to fuel a 0.4 percent increase in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed following the U.S. gauge’s advance to a record. Yields on Australian, New Zealand and Japanese 10-year debt climbed at least one basis point as gold held losses. Oil halted a three-day rally with data Thursday forecast to show U.S. crude stockpiles rose a sixth week. Copper futures added 0.2 percent after a rout in base metals, while platinum rallied.

The Bank of Japan reports on monetary policy Wednesday, and minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting are due, with Asian markets from mainland China to South Korea closed for Lunar New Year holidays. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ government was said to be working on a request to extend the nation’s loan agreement by six months, after talks earlier this week with euro-area finance chiefs failed. Stocks in Shanghai went into the week-long holiday capping a seven-day surge.

“Most market participants assume that, unlike last time, even in the worst case scenario the problems in Greece won’t lead to a breakdown in the European financial system,” Hiroichi Nishi, an equities manager at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo, said by phone. “These assumptions are already being priced into the market.” [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Looking at the Bianca channels we are currently around the top of the 10 day, having nudged above it yesterday, at 6907, with the top of the 20 day not far away at 6937 – a level that is probably worth a short from. The bottom of the 10 day is at 6818 and the 20 day at 6805, so there isn’t a massive range currently with those channels, so I expect we will see a break out one way or the other soon to widen them up again. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a bit of a dip soon, as we are probably experiencing a bit of buy the rumour, sell the news taking place. Initial support today is at the pivot at 6880, with 6870 below that. If the bulls can break 6915 then I expect we will get the top of that 20 day at 6937. Above that is 6973 – top of the 20 day Raff, with the 10 day at 6944.

60 Comments

  1. Nick you said “As I mentioned yesterday I am sure they will.”

    I agree too, but usually in these cases, the decision has already been factored into the market, so am I right in saying historically this means there won’t be a huge surge after the decision is confirmed as everyone knew it anyway? More likely a sell off?

  3. Yes Senu my order is set as got a busy morning am using 60% of my max stake on this, think it will hit and maybe even touch 11020 today… Even if greece has ask for a extension ecb will still put reform on it which Greece will reject.

  5. Closed Senu 10965 have place another order at 11000 same stake 60% this will get swallowed up market is pushing higher today

  6. What’s the plan with you guys short at 88? I’m certainly not disagreeing with it, just wondering if and where you will stop out if this unexpected strength continues?

    1. A lot of people are going to be fooled by the media hype at the moment “FTSE AT ALL TIME HIGH” BUY BUY

      Then it’s all going to come crashing down.

  8. 150 point min stop distance on FTSE with IG and 100 on DOW. When it’s like that, does it mean they expect a big move? I don’t understand why they increase it in any case?

    2. You’re looking at the guaranteed stop of 150. IG do change their non guaranteed min stop depending on how volatile the market is, from 4 to about 12 normally.

  10. Good day all new and regular traders on here. Long time since I`ve been on here but hibernation season is over and preparing to short these ridiculous highs.
    Had a good run last year hopefully can continue into this year.

    Funny how many people predicted that this year would be the `drop`or `correction` year but this strong start contradicts that. DAX already up 1400 since the beginning of the year Will be an interesting year for sure.

    GL all.

    2. Hi Ahwab — Good to hear from you. Hope the course is going well — Do I remember correctly?
      FTSE/1 hr. — Growth has peaked for the moment, so some pause now. But no sign yet of a plunge to 6840, let alone 6600. 😀

      1. Thanks Jim, workload is mounting hence the lack of time but this my hobby =), and yes being a bear is all about being opportunistic however momentum as it is on the bulls side so not worth the risk.

      2. Don’t get your fingers burnt when it does. As sure as night follows day, this is only going one way. DOWN. Then the comeback to support the election campaign will commence. Firstly though 6500 to 6600 is needed.

  15. Hello all. Could someone shed some light on how the divi works. I know you’ve got to pay it when shorting. I’m using capitol spreads. divi was taken last thurs at 20 past midnight. Am i right in thinking you only pay it if you’ve got a short open going into thursday? what about if you open a short on the thursday, say at 6 in the evening, do you still pay it then? Thanks all.

    1. I don’t trade with Capital Spreads – I use FXCM. They take their rollover charge after the 21.00 close. Any shorts on even if they are placed after the cash close of 16.30 is subject to the divi. I guess the same may be true with Capital Spreads.

        1. tell me about it. me too, broke my rule yesterday, wasn’t happy, it’s all flu can’t get over it.

  19. Interest rate rise in UK now expected earlier than previously expected. Strong job data has pushed pound up on expectation of interest rate rise. Current FTSE prediction for end of Feb 6560 According to Faber Hallem

  22. Euro injections likely to be delayed till Greece situation sorted. Any attempt to operate money printing with a Greek exit will lead to massive devaluation which is not acceptable to Deutschland.

    1. With Spain and Italy awaiting the Greek outcome, I wouldn’t be surprised if in the short term monetary policy was tightened by ECB not loosened. German finance minister has already mentioned a suspension of QE to support Euro in the current situation. If that occurs expect Dax back to 9000 in days

      1. Thanks for updates. Any dips will likely be short and fast, best thing is positioning yourself to scalp a few hundred pips and get out.

      2. Will Draghi be deterred? Doubt whether German qualms will actually affect the ECB QE programme — despite their blustering.

  23. Hi Senu not been watching much today… Dax is a crazy one but still think it’s going to push that 11000 so only a short order still in place. At the moment best to sit on sideline

    2. Good start Ahwab. but shouldn’t have closed it. 🙂 i too had an idea to short @ 980, didn’t do it 🙁

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