Good morning. Think that yesterday was the first day I haven’t have an order take in a very long time. After that initial rise to 6850 we stayed around that area the whole day as we await Greek news once again, though it looks quite positive at the moment that an agreement will be reached. I must admit, I don’t mind being on the sidelines too much while things are up in the air, and sometimes with trading I have found thats a good place to be!
Greece
Euro-area finance ministers will meet for the third time in a week on Wednesday to try to secure an agreement to avert a default in Greece.
With a week to go before the country’s bailout expires, a deal appeared within reach after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras signaled he was ready to end a bitter five-month standoff and reach agreement with creditors to unlock aid. While hurdles remain — including votes in the German and Greek parliaments, and figuring out how to pay the International Monetary Fund — analysts say a solution will be found.
“We have now seen enough progress for the finishing line to have become visible,” Erik Nielsen, a Unicredit SpA economist in London, wrote in a note to clients. “Failure from here is difficult to envisage. This means that various liquidity measures will be employed, as needed, until it’s all signed off — and the risk of arrears has significantly declined.”
Tsipras will fly into Brussels Wednesday to meet with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and two top European Union officials to discuss further steps, an EU official said.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian shares rose for a fifth day as Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average headed for its highest close in more than 18 years.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent to 150.15 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The Nikkei 225 increased 0.4 percent, poised for the highest close since December 1996. The measure has climbed 20 percent this year. European and U.S. equities extended gains on Tuesday as investors weighed economic data for clues on the timing of higher interest rates amid optimism that a deal on Greek aid is within reach.
“The Japanese economy is improving and corporate earnings are doing well,” Hiroichi Nishi, a manager at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo, said by phone. “As monetary policy in the U.S. moves toward normalization, we’ll have moderate rate hikes. We’ll continue to have to watch the situation in Greece carefully, but within the wait-and-see mood there’s increasing hope that they’ll come to an agreement.”
E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added less than 0.1 percent after the underlying measure advanced 0.1 percent on Tuesday. Purchases of new homes climbed in May to a 546,000 annualized pace, the strongest since February 2008, according to Commerce Department data. Another report from the agency showed orders placed with factories for business equipment rose last month for just the second time this year.
The chances are about 50-50 that the U.S. economy will improve enough for the central bank to boost borrowing costs in September, said Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, who expects policy makers to move again in December.
Greek Meeting
In Greece, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is seeking to shore up support at home for proposals aimed at ending the indebted nation’s five-month standoff with creditors. Euro-area finance ministers meet Wednesday to try to secure an agreement to prevent Greece from defaulting. Analysts say a solution will be found. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.2 percent on Tuesday.
Japan’s Topix index added 0.5 percent Wednesday. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.3 percent, as did New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index.
Markets in Hong Kong and China are yet to open. The Shanghai Composite Index posted its biggest intraday rebound in eight years on Tuesday.
“Markets have now focused back on what they were focusing on prior to real concerns developing about Greece, and that is the adjustment for the potential for higher interest rates,” said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst in Sydney at CMC Markets. Despite the prospects for higher interest rates in the U.S., “equity markets have decided that bond yields are going to go up, but not enough to really do a lot of damage to the growth prospects or valuations at this stage.” [Ref]
FTSE Outlook
Though we are testing the top of the daily Raffs on both he FTSE and the Dax there is a palpable sense of relief that a Greek deal might finally be reached and Greece will stay in the Eurozone. I think if they left then it wouldn’t bode well for the future of the Eurozone. I expect we will get a similar day to yesterday with a rise and then tread water whilst we await confirmed news. We have the pivot at 6838 which we are at as I write this but despite the 30min chart going bearish overnight and also showing resistance at this 6838 there hasn’t been much bearish activity – bears done want to be caught on the wrong side of a rise from news. There is a pretty decent 30min channel in play, the top of which is at 6885ish and tallies with the top of the 10 day Bianca at 6873 – this area might get the bears interested if we rose there today. There is a bit of weak resistance at 6843 just above the pivot though I don’t think its strong enough to stop any early rise, though it will be interesting to see if the 20 day Raff at 6850 caps it initially. Above that we are looking at a trip to 6900 really, with resistance at 6933 and 6950. Support wise, the bottom for he 30 min channel and 200ema are at 6790, whilst a back test of the 20day Bianca at 6810 is possible, having broken above that channel recently. News regarding the Greek deal will also have an effect as it starts to be released. Stay nimble!
dax has stopped shooting
Got a little 72 short atm, Nick’s 73 resistance might hold for a while.
Don’t expect any fireworks today.
Im on it 🙂
Out at 40
WTF happened there? Somebody shoot Draghi?
Get in. Out at 41. Can alway rely on the greeks
Greek Govt Official: PM Tsipras Said Creditors Did Not Accept Proposals
Tweet saying that PM Tsipras said creditors did not accept proposals … here we go again
Might get to fill those gaps below now …
Hello ZZ you should have a theme song “Gapman, Gapman, Gapmaan” (sung to the Batman theme) 🙂
You mean under 6775?
(stupid qs) Are gaps the difference between closing and the following open price? In this case isn’t the only significant gap between fri and mon. How would you go about filling them? Sorry new to all of this and trying to get an understanding, thanks
1) Yes.
2) When a fast move happens and price gaps up (or down). the market hates a vacuum. Profit taking and others, fading the jump/fall, will tend to push the price back towards the start of the gap. This is what is known as filling the gap.
This is not a general rule. sometimes the market just flies away.
However, because gaps are well known as areas of interest to traders, the jump off points of even very old gaps are quite tradable and also quite useful as targets when the move eventually reverses.
If you use data from the actual exchange trading times i.e. 0800-1630 for the FTSE, then there are gaps which you obviously won’t see on a 24/7 index chart.
Personally I treat out of hours prices with caution as they can reflect the platform’s own book more than the underlying real market, but you can get bargains/good selling opportunities too.
The main gap I’d target is the cash high on Friday which was 6759. Monday’s cash low was 6770. (By cash I mean the price between 8.00am and 16.30pm). This is a ‘key’ gap that should get filled. BUT I can’t rule out that we don’t go to the 6900s first before it comes back down. The gap will get ‘filled’ when the price comes back down to 6759. I’m also expecting to see 6695 as well sometime (Friday night’s after hours closing price). We should also see 6950 (June 3rd closing price sometime as well.)
thanks for the info
Hasn’t held badly, longed on the 2nd visit to 40, coming out now at 54 and short for a retest
What about this retest of 6840. I don’t think i’ll risk a long there
Out at 38 letting dust settle for 10 mins
short at 60 10 either way
Took 10
Not a great pivot fan but it held all right
is there another “greek” speech at noon to cause some more turmoil?!
Probably, they love talking.
A good break of 60 could mean another look at the highs, timings right, little spec long stop 52
stop to 56
Not working, out b/e
Anyone using IG and short term trading might want to take advantage of their guaranteed stops, it costs an extra pip but is only a minimum 10 points atm.
I do manual stops but it’s handy as a back up in case of silliness.
For those looking for a longer term horizon – it’s worth taking a look at this article by Tom McClellan: Major Market Peak in August – Bear Market into 2016.
http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/tom-mcclellan-major-market-peak-in_23.html
If the above link asks for log-in details then you can also access it via McVerry Report page: http://mcverryreport.com/
I respect Tom McLellan’s analysis which isn’t the usual scaremongering c**p
Food for thought … though he does say the signal didn’t work in 2013. (The signal is for the S&P but my guess is it could apply to many indexes.)
So, here we are for the third time today, 38/40….will it hold?
Indicators on the floor, no friends, got to be worth a buy lol.
Long at 40, 8 point stop
Nice little gap on the 3 min at 62 as a potential target. Probably get out before though.
Lol, yeah at 42 if it doesn’t get a move on.
Actually, I have one eye on 60ish, dependent on our American cousins of course.
S&P is below closing price, so might drag us up momentarily
Couldn’t resist taking 10 🙂
Not very impressed with this continuing very far… short at 53 6 pt stop
grind and pop higher like at 11.30-12.00?
stopped but still liking the short side soon into the close only 2 pt divi
what is the gap? as I understand it you see 62 as the resistance on the 3 min chart?
Set IG or Intertrader chart to 3 min time-frame. You should see a small gap at about 62. DOESN’T HAVE TO FILL though – sorry for shouting, but was worth taking 10 points as tmfp and I did from 40. I’m not trading for it, but the market ‘might’ get there.
Sorry I’m missing something. I got the chat open, all I see was that it fluctuated around that price at noon. Are you saying that is todays live trading resistance?
I’ll post a chart later tonight about it. Got to do some other stuff now.
I think ZZ means 12.24-12.27 there was a .5 gap between the candles.
That’s pretty hardcore gap filling lol, and it’s still open, we only hit 61.5 just now.
Hi Milka, tmfp is correct. I’ve attached a 3-minute chart showing the gap between the red lines. It was a good example of the gap not filling, but acting as resistance. Nevertheless it was good for a few points from the low. Do not be tempted to trade gaps on trending days – the market will leave you behind and they are only one indicator – to be used in conjunction with rsi, emas and all the rest – and with a stop in case it moves against you. Intra-day they work best when the market is trading in a range. I trade them on 2,3,5,15 minute and higher timeframes. (The higher the timeframe the more chance of it being filled.)
http://s172.photobucket.com/user/zigzagger2/media/FTSE%2024.6.15_zps9aesdutk.png.html
Hi zigzagger
Thank you very much for the info. Very grateful. I shall have a goog look at this
Mad half hour coming up.
Despite it being divi day looking for weakness so a short at 55 10 point stop
not really happening instant stop at be
and out for 6 whole points
cheers!
Looking better Si. Now to time the exit for me. The uncertainty on Greece could be sorted at any time so risky to hold but Dow below 18,000 makes me think of an exit at 2094 for me as a target
Yes, I keep wondering whether to get out now or continue holding in the hope of another 200 points lower on DOW…
We have had an element of relief rally already, summer, US rates, sell the news, next Greek deadline etc all headwinds here and I’m a bull!