Support 6750, 6730, 6710, 6690 Resistance 6798, 6823, 6848, 6872, 6900

Good morning. Hope you had a good weekend. The news is all about the left bias Syriza party winning the Greek election and the ramifications for them staying in the Euro. Markets reacted with a fall, though the Dax has only shed 200 or so from Friday high. Could be a busy day for Euro forex traders! Apart from Greece the weekend news was fairly low key in terms of things that will effect the FTSE, with news from the ECB on Thursday is being digested with their 1.2bn QE program.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
The euro slipped with U.S. equity-index futures, while Treasuries rallied as Greek voters handed victory to a party that’s pledged to renegotiate the terms of an international bailout. Asian stocks dropped with crude oil and industrial metals.

The 19-nation euro dropped 0.3 percent to $1.1172 by 2 p.m. in Tokyo, and touched a more-than 11-year low. The yield on 30-year Treasuries fell to a record. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures sank 0.6 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) lost 0.4 percent. U.S. crude declined 1.2 percent and nickel slid 1.9 percent in London. China’s yuan headed for its biggest two-day drop since 2008 versus the dollar.

Greece’s Syriza won a more decisive victory than polls predicted, coming within two seats of an absolute majority with most votes counted. Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras has pledged to secure a writedown of the nation’s debt and end austerity measures, policies that outgoing Prime Minister Antonis Samaras warned could trigger an “accidental” exit from the euro. Germany’s Ifo Business Expectations survey is due, while fighting in Ukraine spread to the port city of Mariupol.

“There is certainly a bias to be risk averse,” said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG Markets Ltd. in Melbourne, wrote in a note to clients. “With a painful period likely for markets as they digest and obsess over the new Greek government’s negotiations with Eurozone officials, it’s hard to see too much positivity toward the single currency.”

Exit Risk
Tsipras, 40, has pledged to keep the nation within the single currency area as he negotiates a writedown of Greek debt and eases budget constraints that were imposed in return for aid after the country’s economic collapse. The current round of funding expires on Feb. 28 and talks with the so-called troika – – the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank — for its renewal have stalled since September amid demands for further belt tightening.

Addressing supporters in central Athens Sunday night, Tsipras said Greece is putting austerity behind it. The Syriza government’s priority will be to restore the “lost dignity” of the Greek people and there will be “neither a catastrophic collapse nor will continued kowtowing be accepted.”

Germany’s Finance Ministry said in a statement that Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble’s position was unchanged after the election result and “the agreements reached with Greece remain valid.” Finance ministers from the euro area are due to discuss Greece and its bailout in Brussels on Monday.

The euro retreated 7.4 percent versus the dollar this year through Friday, the biggest decline among 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The ECB last week pledged to pump 1.1 trillion euros ($1.2 trillion) into the region’s economy to stave off deflation and ignite growth.

BOJ Options
The euro sank as much as 1.4 percent to a more-than 16-month low of 130.15 yen today. Japan’s currency climbed 0.1 percent to 117.64 per dollar, after gaining 0.6 percent on Friday. Exports from Asia’s second-largest economy grew more than economists expected in December, data today showed.

The joint currency’s slide is putting pressure on China’s yuan, which today rose through 7 per euro for the first time since 2001. Europe as a bloc is the biggest trading partner for the world’s second-largest economy, where exports made up 26 percent of gross domestic product at the end of 2013, according to the World Bank.

Treasuries Rally
The yuan’s two-day drop of as much as 0.8 percent pushed it to a record 1.89 percent discount to the central bank’s reference rate. It sank as low as 6.2569 per dollar as the People’s Bank of China cut its daily fixing by 0.07 percent to 6.1384 a dollar, the lowest since Dec. 4. The spot rate rate is allowed to diverge a maximum 2 percent from the fixing.

The U.S. 30-year yield declined three basis points to 2.339 percent, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 3 percent bond due in November 2044 rose 25/32, or $7.81 per $1,000 face amount, to 114 4/32. The yield was as low as 2.3336 percent.

Benchmark 10-year Treasuries advanced, with yields slipping as much as four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 1.76 percent. The rate on similar maturity Japanese government bonds fluctuated between 0.215 and 0.23 percent.

“There’s uncertainty regarding the Greek problem,” said Hiroki Shimazu, the senior market economist in Tokyo at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc., a unit of Japan’s second-largest publicly traded bank. “That will help the bullish Treasury market, a flight to quality.”

The Aussie lost 0.4 percent to 78.83 U.S. cents and touched 78.55, its weakest intraday level since July 2009. The currency’s slump is being fueled by bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will need to cut interest rates to a fresh record low amid the ECB’s quantitative easing program. The Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut rates last week.

U.S. Stocks
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 0.6 percent and those on the Nasdaq 100 Index fell 0.5 percent. The S&P 500 lost 0.6 percent on Friday in New York, paring a weekly gain to 1.6 percent.

Copper dropped 1.9 percent in London after closing Jan. 23 at the lowest since July 2009. Nickel lost as much as 2.1 percent. The Bloomberg Commodity Index slid 0.6 percent.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $45.03 a barrel after settling Jan. 23 at its lowest price since March 2009. Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, rose 7.4 percent from last year to end December at 383.5 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute said in a monthly report.

U.S. oil erased gains spurred by the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia on Jan. 23 after his successor said policies won’t change in the world’s largest crude exporting nation. Brent crude was down 0.9 percent to $48.33 per barrel.[Ref]

FTSE Outlook

With the overnight drop since the futures markets opened, I am expecting a rise initially towards the pivot area at 6823 (and Fridays close 6832). However, the Greek election result will certainly rattle the Eurozone as it means that they are firmly against their imposed austerity and loan obligations – a bit of a headache for Germany and the the rest of the Eurozone. As such I have planned for a fairly straightforward rise to there and then a dip. There is an outside chance that the bulls can take it further to test the 6872 top of the 20 day Bianca level but I don’t think so, especially with the S&P dipping off the top of the 20 day Raff join Friday at 2065ish (now 2040). If the FTSE does dip from that pivot area then a break of 6798 again will likely lead to the bottom of that 30minute channel around 6750, and the next support below that is 6730 and 6710. The bottom of the 10 day Bianca is at 6690 – quite possible that we test this line today or tomorrow. If we do then the immediate uptrend that everyone was so bullish about last week is broken.

Resistance wise today, above the 6823 area we have 6850, 6875ish (top of that 30min channel) and 6900 (PRT resistance line).