Support 6730, 6724, 6718, 6716, 6700 Resistance 6767, 6774, 6789, 6826

Good morning. It all happened at the open yesterday with the dip to the pivot and then a rise, unfortunately stopping just short of the 6774 shorting area. The US is closed today for Thanksgiving, so the US markets are going to be quiet, which will probably knock on to a quiet session for us, then tomorrow is a half day as well. The bulls have struggled to make much headway this week, but neither have the bears with prices staying in a pretty narrow band around the 6740 area. The Bianca 10 day channel has levelled off a bit (todays channel top lower than yesterdays) so we could be starting to rollover for a bit of bearishness. Needs a catalyst though….. oil?! An increase in US jobless claims didn’t do much yesterday though. I’d still like us to test the top of the Bianca channels before a dip, so a rise to 6789 today….

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Most Asian stocks fell as Japanese shares retreated on a stronger yen and a drop in oil weighed on energy companies.

About three shares declined for every two that gained on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP), which was little changed at 141.34 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.3 percent to a fresh record yesterday ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday as investors weighed economic data.

“In the medium-term, things are still moving positively in most economies, but growth is slower universally,” said Angus Gluskie, managing director at White Funds Management in Sydney, which oversees about $550 million. “You want to be in the markets, but you don’t expect a spectacular return.”

Japan’s Topix (TPX) index slid 0.3 percent as the yen strengthened for a third day to trade at 117.64 per dollar. South Korea’s Kospi index climbed 0.5 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.2 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slipped 0.1 percent. Markets in Hong Kong and China have yet to open.

The Asia-Pacific measure rebounded 5.7 percent from an Oct. 17 low through yesterday as the Bank of Japan added stimulus, China cut interest rates and speculation grew the European Central Bank will take more stimulus measures.

U.S. consumer confidence climbed to a more than seven-year high in November as Americans’ views of their financial well-being improved heading into the holiday shopping season. A separate report showed consumer spending climbed in October at the same pace as incomes, showing households are staying within their means as the holiday-shopping season begins.

U.S. Data
Orders for U.S. business equipment such as machinery and electrical gear unexpectedly declined in October. Other data showed jobless claims increased by 21,000 to 313,000 in the week ended Nov. 22, the highest since early September, from 292,000 in the prior period. New homes in the U.S. sold at a slower pace than forecast last month.

Oil futures closed at the lowest level in more than four years amid skepticism OPEC ministers will cut supply. A Bloomberg News survey showed 20 analysts were evenly divided on the decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.1 percent in their most recent trading session, and contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 0.3 percent. [ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We the daily pivot at 6730 today so initial support there, and if the bulls can move the price above 6751 today then I am thinking we should get a rise at least to yesterdays high at 6767, and maybe the top of the 10 day Bianca at 6789. I think a short around that area could pay offs its also the mid point of the 20 day Raff, and the top of the 30minute channel. This week is traditionally bullish, and even some bad US job data yesterday didn’t get the bears out of the cave. I think a long off the pivot at 6730 with a stop at 6718, just below the 6724 support should be ok, as if that breaks then the bottom of the Bianca’s around 6716 and then a lower 6700 are more than likely. Choice is to either build up a long at 6730 and add at 6716, or cut the 6730 and then reenter lower.

81 Comments

  2. Hi Nick
    The software has not signalled anything new. Still same signals from yesterday.
    Could I ask you – what price level would you consider a bearish stance?
    Thanks

    1. lol senu. but i WILL get out of my longs friday/monday either close those them or trail stop. Next two weeks we could some dip.

    1. Had my short order in @50 but missed by .2! I’m sure i’ll get another chance. Sitting here frustrated at the moment though.

  6. Yes, thanks, no idea how FTSE went so low this morning, bought @26, @20, @15, I know may be bad idea to average down, but I was feeling this was a bargain, sold now @40…nice morning to start 🙂

      1. yes, agree Senu, had same stop loss for all positions, so didn’t change that, which meant stop was getting closer and closer, ie less risk with each new position. Also with Bianca bottom around 6716, that was my last entry level. BUT have to agree because it worked, its becomes an addiction, and then true one day it will go other way and big losses. (I need to stop doing this!)

        1. It’s very hard to do so until you burn heavily, and even then it’s not enough, memories fade. however i wish you luck to overcome this problem.

      1. Now do you think they will go for record 10,050 ish now and then down few days, before new all time high, or straight to the sky…like DOW?

  8. FYI – from Capitalspread news letter:
    “Mario Draghi and Jens Weideman will be speaking today and there is some cautious optimism building up before the open that they will be singing from the same dovish hymn book as their colleague Vitor Constancio, who dropped some very big hints about sovereign QE in 2015 yesterday”

    Any idea what time they speak?

      1. All priced in now? I think people are getting fed up with them just bloody speaking and want action

    1. Hi mali, to answer your question in my view, you can sell FTSE with that second green line below in the chart as stop

    2. Ok, I would have started buying now@24, but wont, as I wont average down, will be patient…and wait for lower entry….

  13. Running system on 100 ticks timeframe this morning so signals relatively short-term. Got a premature sell — 6735/09:17. FTSE now back down to ≈ 6725. Will let this run I think and look out for a buy.

  14. Yes, please, my overall feeling is today and tomorrow will be higher than 6730, I doubt any major sell off will start without our US partners…

  16. FTSE — Beginning to look like buy again. Signals in the IG/ProRealTime setup are actually seriously delayed after the trigger point has passed — another way of stacking the cards.

    1. Just got a nice new buy following a useless sell. BUY 9984/14:40; notified 14:45. Is Draghi talking; it’s jumping around.

    1. I had a DAX short at 9990, until 2pm as wasn’t hit, removed it, and just few min ago we got that spike, so missed again…

  24. Bloody spread. Even worse when the actual market does reach your order but you still don’t deal?! And both times we’ve come shooting down from 50..
    I’m not bitter…

  25. One thing for sure, with lower fuel costs I am saving at the pump, which has resulted in more spare cash for me, now depends how consumer decides to use this cash…

  26. My RSI trading is doing very well last couple of days 🙂 The old favourites are the best. (apart from when it’s trending lol).

    1. Which platform tmfp? Yet another way of stacking the deck! 😀 You’d think the FCA would take an interest in potential abuse.

      1. That’s IG Jim.
        I try NEVER to forget I’m dealing with a bookie, not the real thing.
        Some of their stop hunting is shameless.

        1. naw, if i short now DAX will break that 10k just to spite me, if i start trading i`m gonna take a leaf out of your book and scalp =)

      1. can expect 10k+ tomorrow – going long from 9974 (a paper trade), made 3 paper trades today with the best being DAX 8:55 rise caught 40 pips lol. Too bad it isn`t real money!

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