Good morning. Well those longs worked out well yesterday morning but the bulls failed to break the 6751 area (glad i closed most there!). In fact the bears took control at that point and we have had a 6705 overnight low, bearish despite the US being closed. Black Friday seems to be everywhere and being mentioned all over the place now, so half day int he US trading wise, ending about 6pm out time. In case your wondering why its called Black Friday, traditionally it was the first day of the year when retailers moved into profit, having been in the red all year. Anyway, today the Bianca channel bottoms have moved a bit lower so that rate of climb is definitely slowing; the 10 day Raff has levelled off a bit too. Early December dip maybe? Oil continuing to decline after Opec said yesterday they weren’t going to cut production, could trigger a few jitters.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
The yen tumbled toward a seven-year low and two-year Japanese government bond yields slid below zero after data showed household spending fell and inflation slowed.
The yen headed for a monthly loss of at least 1.6 percent against all its 16 major peers amid speculation the Bank of Japan will keep expanding stimulus further. The euro dropped for a second day versus the dollar before a report forecast to show the region’s inflation matched the slowest pace since 2009. The Aussie fell and the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar extended losses after OPEC members left the output target unchanged amid oil’s slump into a bear market.
“As dollar buying continues on the back of falling oil prices, the yen is getting sold on higher stocks with an extra boost from the CPI,” said Kengo Suzuki, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “The inflation numbers could stoke expectations for further BOJ easing.”
The yen tumbled 0.5 percent to 118.31 per dollar as of 1:42 p.m. in Tokyo, approaching the seven-year low of 118.98 reached last week. The Japanese currency fell 0.4 percent to 147.27 per euro. The euro declined 0.2 percent to $1.2448.
The yield on two-year Japanese sovereign debt dropped one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to minus 0.005 percent.
Inflation Outlook
The BOJ’s key price gauge increased 2.9 percent in October from a year earlier, today’s data showed, equivalent to a 0.9 percent gain when the effects of April’s tax bump are excluded. Retail sales dropped 1.4 percent from September, more than a 0.5 percent decline forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
In Europe, inflation probably slowed to 0.3 percent this month, according to economists in a separate Bloomberg survey before today’s report. That would match the rate in August and September, which was the lowest since October 2009.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major counterparts, rose 0.3 percent to 1,102.84, on track for its highest close since March 2009. It has gained 0.3 percent this week.
“The U.S. dollar remains strong,” said Imre Speizer, a markets strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Auckland, adding that sentiment toward the yen remains bearish. “The data coming out of the euro zone continues to be weak, and points to more quantitative easing from the ECB.”
Commodity currencies continued their decline after OPEC took no action to ease a global oil-supply glut amid oil’s tumble into a bear market this year.
Australia’s dollar slid 0.5 percent to 85.00 U.S. cents. The krone weakened 0.3 percent to 6.9491 per dollar, after tumbling 1.4 percent yesterday. Canada’s loonie fell 0.2 percent to C$1.1349 per U.S. dollar, adding to yesterday’s 0.7 percent drop. [ref]
FTSE Outlook
Does appear to be weakening and just testing the bottom of both the 20 day Bianca at 6717 and the 20 day Raff at 6700. 10 days are at 6709 Bianca and 6656 Raff. We have swung below the pivot for today so that is now resistance at 6729, and looks a decent shorting area as the 30min also has some PRT resistance lines there, including a declining channel. With he bottom of the daily channels being repeatedly tested and the bulls failing to pull away from those levels does make you think that they might be breaking soon. If the 6700 level breaks then i expect the 10 day raff channel bottom at 6656 and 25ema at 6647 are likely to be hit. Am looking to try a short off the pivot today, but as its Friday and a half day in the US, just go small stakes. If the bulls do push past the pivot then the next resistance is the 6751 level followed by 6767, 6785 and 6800. Top of the 20 day Bianca at 6832, though I would be very surprised if we got that today. Stranger things have happened though!
Good MOrning all.. RC congrats to your system, 2nd target is done 🙂
Senu, could you repeat those targets plz
Short 6765, Targets 6730, 6688 – RC
Hi Ahwab, I am in profit with my dax paper trade 🙂
And going against the herd has paid off! Got myself short of 3 after yesterday. Highest sale 6765 lowest buy 6680.
That’s good 🙂
Is this going to 6656? I have order st 6660
Do we have FTSE buy signal anyone?
small long at @71, and another buy order @64, I doubt it will go that low today, usually market doesn’t crash on these days and expect US to maintain flat…
very good one mali. did u had a buy signal there or any support?
Sorry don’t have a complex model or so, just using IG charts, and pivots, found support levels @92@73 today, just luckily got @71, after my alert. Now not sure how high we will go today, any targets?
73 is S3, below that all those mentioned above by Nick should be visited.
I’m making 65-35 (long @6665 short @6735)
Hi lawrence, was your order taken? Hope yesterday doesn’t get repeated 🙂
Looks like FTSE struggling, no move up at all, Nick any thoughts of plans?
I think too risky to short now?
Yep, that’s crashing. And supposed to be going long as everybody was predicting on Black Friday. But I think that’s why it’s called Black as it doesn’t sound something positive.
However I wonder if 6672 holds, it’s S3 after all.
nope, it doesnt
Yes, I was hopping it would hold….but gone below that, no support at all today
BTW, yesterday I was watching DOW jump up to 17860ish, with Holiday down there, was it manipulation to remove any sorters out there? and today they would have got their targets? Any thoughts?
Anyway if any models produces a buy signal plz let us know…GLA
RC’s short has paid off with patience – Well done!
Short @ 6680
just closed my morning long @79, as you went short 🙂
lol.. I may be wrong also.. have stop @ 95
Went short here too- aiming for it to hit 6650- is this a realistic target ?
Time to short DOW?
tempted to short ftse and hold for couple of weeks.
and spx at 70
Ravi, have you started shorting yet?
Yep short 6777, limit 6737, doing this on a Friday with the weekend rate is going to hurt a little, but feeling confident to hit by early next week.
My PPP is very high too, compared to what I normally do
6677 you mean? Are you not getting into swing trade positions yet?
Sorry yes replace all 67 with 66*!!
Walmart highest ever spending on Thanksgiving – are US consumers spending more?
Sam, have you shorted FTSE and SPX?
yup, ftse at 81, stop b/e.
stopped 🙁
Oh! That was too fast 🙁
Dax is still flat. Jim have you got any signals? Thanks
For DAX pivot is around 9959, support 9925, resistant 9998 today from my IG chart, but I have no position at the moment.
I have paper trade short from 72, since yesterday
I took 9pnts from my morning long, now everyone seems shorting from 80ish level today, but I am waiting for closer to Pivot at 6730, or at least resistance level at 6695ish, however I am very nervous about holding over the weekend in general…
dow picking up, bit nervous on my FTSE short
stopped 🙁 , very bad entry
yes, I had plan to close my long around @95, but being honest emotions kicked in and reading everyone shorting made me nervous, and I closed at @79, but shows how important to have pre-planned actions of entry and exit etc could have easily gone other way…
Wow that was fast to 6695, didn’t expect it so fast…I suspect US is pushing everything up…now I think I will wait for US open, and with low trade volume things can swing, be careful today…GLA
true, thinking of shorting at the close.
Senu,
RC gave the T3-6671.
How arfe you doing Senu?
Hi youhooi, after long time. I am fine.. ups and downs in trading ,, and u?
May be I didn’t remember that 6671
I am on Skype with him and RC told me T3. if you want pls give me yout skype.
RC we need your new signals when they are produced…plz
yes please 🙂
FTSE and DAX going North & South
anyone shorting here? went short @ 08
FTSE recovered all morning losses almost, dam feel more gutted closing my long @79….
Senu
Why u short?
with that resistance @ 09
came out for couple of pts 🙂
Senu you still short @09?
Nice paper trade on the DAX Senu, almost hit my 10000 mark though. Exactly the same scenario as last black friday with a dip and rise. Expecting the rise to continue today. Might short DOW just before 2pp tonight for a short into next week, last year it had a nice gap down after black friday – worth a shot with a stop @ 17900
cheers mate 🙂
Both DAX & DOW, above pivot levels again, hence more bullish again it think, no positions
and with limited US trading, wonder how afternoon turns out…
Senu long @65 didn’t get hit. Not too annoyed today. I should have just hit the button at 70 but after this week i’m happy to not trade today and go into the weekend level.
just a coincidence, didn’t see ur ,msg.
Lawrence, did u get into this long?
Mlawrence01 – do you plan to add any shorts today?
Only if it hits my price Mali. Happy to sit on the sidelines until then. Hope everyone’s had a good day?
short would be an emotional trade atm
when u avoid, it goes well, but when u get in, it goes against 🙁
looks like the right one atm
Normally, I will wait till 3:00-3:05
that’s right, paradox
Sam, kind request, please let me know when u place any order in SPX. Thanks
US open totally different from Europe, pushing up
strange how S&P is down -7.5 though as opposed to DOW almost at b/e
as usual mali, last 3 weeks same story
yes, should have trusted our US traders to push all us up…
Yes, S&P & DOW trading in different direction, due to manipulation by computers today, be aware – I guess best to avoid today
It was a nice trading day, loosing my concentration because of this unwanted dax trade 🙁
Senu,
Did you hold anything on FTSE?
nothing, net loss -10 pts in FTSE . just being sidelines. Looking at dax, showing some weakness or going to spike at close?
Does anybody what time markets close? I know markets closing early.
I hope you meant US markets. 6PM
Short 14 stop 20
Does all trading close today for DAX,FTSE, DOW at 6pm?
lol.. dow trade only half day today. others normal.
mali, you made the right entry today.. GL
thanks Senu, I am sure you can all sense, I am still learning! But I must say to everyone here providing signals – Many thanks!
Everyone have a good weekend.
Been so busy today and only just realised i’ve had the wrong price in all day?! Anyways gone short @25.
I did the same thing for DOW, was looking to short at 17892, but had it as 17992, just realised 🙁
I was suspecting all day, low real trading and FTSE & DAX all pushed up at close…
managed a quick FTSE short at @31 for 7pnts, too quick to write here
🙂
Don’t want to hold over weekend, but I think next 2 wks will be different…
dax racing back to 10k
My gut feeling is that, it will go above that anytime next week, at least during afterhours trades…
yes.. i am expecting today itself
I’m ready to load up my shorts as it does
is SPX dragging now?
SPX @ S1, Sam are u trading on it?
Lawrence, I also took that FTSE short bit higher, closed for 15 pts 🙂
Well done Senu :)!
Making 95-45 myself. Maybe a bit ambitious :/
dow closing in few mins, FTSE may see some recovery after that…
Think i’ll wait till Monday. If i it goes up Monday morning that’s fine i’ve got that short and will only short again above it. If it does fall further then even better.
have a nice weekend…bye 🙂
dow 18000, dax 10000, FTSE 6800, SPX 2100 all undone.. dip started now.. will they be done by santa rally?
High Chaps
Signal sell 6686 T1 = 6634
Cheers RC