Support 6711, 6707, 6700, 6690, 6670 Resistance 6738, 6744, 6760, 6780, 6790, 6811

Good morning. Well yesterday was a bit lacklustre, with not much happening, and when he long off the pivot finally took, did nothing much, then dipped. Annoying! Apart from hitting the pivot, no other significant levels were hit so it was a bit of a non day really, makes a change as Mondays have been a bit choppy recently. Treading water before something major maybe? It is Thanksgiving week of course in the US, which is traditionally bullish, and as you have probably seen, culminates in Black Friday – when everyone goes shopping.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark gauge heading for a three-day advance, as consumer and industrial shares climbed as Japanese stocks rallied after a holiday.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added 0.1 percent to 140.62 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix (TPX) index climbed 0.7 percent after the yen dropped 0.4 percent versus the dollar yesterday.

“More monetary policy easing in China and Europe are helping the market,” said Stephen Halmarick, Sydney-based head of investment markets research at Colonial First State Global Asset Management, which oversees about $150 billion. “Government policy actions are going to be supportive for risk assets like equities.”

South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 0.8 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slid 0.6 percent.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The underlying equity measure advanced 0.3 percent yesterday, extending a record high after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi pledged to raise inflation as fast as possible and China unexpectedly cut interest rates last week. Reports today may show the U.S. economy grew at a slower rate in the third quarter than first estimated, while consumer confidence probably climbed in November.

Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index were little changed in their most recent trading session. Singapore’s third-quarter economic growth rose an annualized 3.1 percent, beating estimates for a 1.5 percent boost, before markets open in the city-state.

The People’s Bank of China from Nov. 22 lowered the one-year lending rate by 40 basis points to 5.6 percent and the one-year saving rate 25 basis points to 2.75 percent, and increased the ceiling for deposit rates. The one-year lending rate will be 5.35 percent in the second quarter of 2015 and the one-year deposit rate will be 2.5 percent, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Todays pivot is 6738, but i can see an initial rise to just past that at 6744 where we have the declining T3 coral line on the 30min (which is now red). If we get a little dip from there then I expect support to be found at the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel around 6711 (the 20 day is 6707), and if this area holds then we could use that as a spring board for a push higher early this week. Below here the next support is 6690 (bottom of the Raffs) then 6670, though looking at the 30minute chart and the rising daily trends you would think that the bulls have the upper hand at the moment. Above the 6744 level then the top of the 10 day Bianca is 6780, then the 20 day at 6811, levels that would likely get tested on a push higher.

As long as the 30minute channel holds then we should follow the arrows, though it is noted that the 10 day Bianca channel is narrowing (just a 70 point range) so we will most likely get a breakout at some point soon. Bullish for the moment, but I am still expecting a dip down before a year end rally, looking at 2030 S&P support now for any larger dip.

56 Comments

  6. I’m sitting short at 42 and a bit bored, hoping for a retest of today’s low and was thinking about oil. It seems to me that any agreement from OPEC to cut production would be bullish for two reasons
    1) It would potentially increase inflation, which the central banks want
    2) The FTSE 100 is 17% oil companies, which would benefit from a price rise.
    What do you think?

  7. What do you think positive US GDP will have on markets? I think an already bullish market might get a small boost to upside…ie momentum continue…

    2. RC How’s it going?! I’m not doing too bad. Still cross with China… How are you trading?
      Senu i’m always short…

  10. Senu ,Lawrence

    Thats good to hear.
    Yes thanks, the software signals have been great.
    You guys Long or Short today ?
    Suppose all of you guys are waiting to Short from 6760 !

        1. Hey, 15 points is great, I took just 5 on my 42 short, then resold @45 and just bought 50% back on Dow @95, so sort of locked in.

  12. Hi Nick
    Good to hear. Market is sitting on a sell. Signal short at 6733
    Targetting 6703 & 6693

  14. Hold on to shorts for weeks. Go long for the day and this happens… Life of a trader aye… Just closed my one left @56 so level now level.

  18. Guys let me share something, I just went long at FTSE@6713, with tight stop at 6707 few min before close. Now CityIndex spiked me out, and we all know where FTSE is now…. can anyone explain sensibly why I lost this trade…:-(

        2. I had no stop, I usually use one automatically but not for a closing time trade, as Senu says.
          I actually tried to buy more at 04 but IG wouldn’t play. The market at the close can be artificially extreme and I was watching the Dow and Dax doing absolutely nothing as we plummetted, so was quite happy without a stop.
          I must admit I was only looking for 10 points or so, 25 in 10 minutes made my day.
          Not to rub it in 😉

    1. Senu
      I have not been here for ages so I’ll explain some of the things i have found the core components of the software
      The most beneficial thing about the Software Signals have been the following:-
      1. The Signal gives the Direction where the move is going to take place
      2. T1 – T2 – T3 – are the targets to look for, in a vast majority of the cases – T2 is reached – or atleast between T1 – T2
      3. But in 90% cases – T1 – will be reached.
      4. Once you know the Signal – A Stop I have found to be really just a mental comfort – rather than a practical option
      5. Its the ” worry-free ” nature – that i have found the best – from the software
      So to answer your question – Sure it did not get to T2 / T3. But 7633 to 6705
      – Not bad.
      Look at the Chart at 3.15. What direction was the market going to go ?
      Personally – I had No Clue. & That really is what its all about.

      1. Senu
        Software is indicating otherwise – So watch 6760 & the T1 / T2 / T3
        Software gave today.
        They are not necessarily what will be indicated tommorow.
        But be careful with your “drifting – Theory ” – Software wanted
        me to pass this on to you, for your kind comments earlier !!!

        Senu says:
        November 25, 2014 at 4:30 pm

        good call RC 🙂
        Reply

        RentalCollection says:
        November 25, 2014 at 4:32 pm

        I’ll pass it on to the software !!

  24. Not bad senu, shorted ftse at 40 and had trail stop. Made few points, made about 100 points on WTI short. I still have order to long ftse from 6700.

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