Support 6703, 6655, 6634, 6623 Resistance 6743, 6799, 6817, 6855

Good morning. Well that was a great rise yesterday with the 6658 long, which has actually continued again this morning to 6743 (where we have resistance from the 200ema on 30min) as the French Economic Minster has said that Greece has to stay in the Eurozone. “Stocks will recover once people refocus on improving fundamentals without distractions fogging up the picture,” said Michael Woischneck, an equity manager at Lampe Asset Management GmbH in Dusseldorf, Germany. He helps oversee about $7 billion. “We can contain any fallout from Greece, especially for Spain, Ireland and Portugal.” We also have all eyes on the Fed later for clues about interest rates.

Fed Meeting
Investors are also watching for cues on the timing of a U.S. rate increase, with Federal Reserve officials ending a two-day meeting today, and news out at 7pm this evening. While policy makers are expected to leave rates unchanged this month, some improving economic reports have stoked concern the Fed will go ahead with raising them later this year. A release yesterday showed housing starts in May capped the best back-to-back readings since 2007.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose for the first time in three days, following U.S. shares higher, as investors awaited a Federal Reserve decision on U.S. monetary policy.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.2 percent to 146.63 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure slipped 1.2 percent in the previous two days as European policy makers urged Greece to make the concessions needed to unlock bailout aid ahead of Thursday’s meeting of euro-area finance ministers.

The Fed concludes its two-day policy meeting Wednesday, amid speculation mixed U.S. economic data and the deadlock over Greece may complicate the central bank’s drive to increase interest rates. Greece’s prime minister accused the International Monetary Fund of “criminal” responsibility for the indebted nation’s situation.

“Yellen is unlikely to come across as overly hawkish given the Greek situation,” said Shane Oliver, the head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. in Sydney, which manages about $124 billion. “The markets had become a bit oversold. The bull market is still alive and well.”

Japan’s Topix index added 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.3 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slid 0.1 percent.

Futures on the Hang Seng Index rose 0.3 percent in most recent trading, while contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 0.4 percent.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed after the underlying gauge advanced 0.6 percent on Tuesday.

The Fed meets as data continue to show uneven gains in the U.S. economy after a first-quarter slowdown. Traders are now putting odds of a September rate hike at 47 percent, down from 53 percent as recently as Friday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Fed Chair Janet Yellen may provide further clues at a press conference Wednesday. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

For the moment I am inclined to be bullish. We have had a decent bounce off the 6658 yesterday which was the bottom of the 20 day channel, and the 30min era’s are still bullish. I have gone for a dip from this 6743 area which hit just as I started the analysis, as that is the 200ema on the 30min, with a dip down to the pivot at 6703. This area looks a good entry for a long as we also have the T3 coral line there to act as support and will be the first touch since the trend turned to green on that. Ideally we will get another decent rise, and a target area would be 6799, where we have the top of the 10 day Bianca. Will take a lot of good news I think for a +100 day today but you never know with Greece rumbling on and the Fed later. The bulls market is alive and well (despite everyone panicking on Monday! The daily RSI is still only at 31 after that rise yesterday so there is still potential for a decent rise.

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92 Comments

  1. Morning.
    Was looking at a buy the dips day, so let’s see how the pivot holds, long at 03 10 pt stop, looking for 20+.
    Might get a bit of local upside if the 0930 jobs figures are good, which they probably will be now that IDS’s sanctioning Stasi have a free hand.

    1. 03 roughly lining up with 11000 on the DAX, which is supposed to be a bit of support, not so?

      1. only half estimated reduction, not a lot of effect, stop to b/e don’t really want it any more unless we can kick on a bit smartish.

      1. 50 points already, very nice, what are you looking for, 11200 ish?
        We seem to be chugging gently up…

    1. I know, fired all my bullets too early 🙁
      Might have an exhaustion move to ~80 for a long again for me.

      1. Still thinking dip and rise today, S&P still climbing. Maybe FTSE just gone a bit lower than expected

        1. i think there is a declining trend line in S&P and DOW from all time highs acting as resistance probably at 2100 and 18050 area. FTSE is yet to close that gap, rest of the indices seems to have.

        2. “Maybe FTSE just gone a bit lower than expected”
          Lol, yes you could put it like that.

          Somebody quoted 72% of IG customers long FTSE recently. Would that be the same 72% that lose money?
          😉

    1. At first long looked like a good idea so I was scalping long on Dax. Now it’s gloomy. Seeing FTSE daily it doesn’t inspire me to scalp longs at the moment. I will wait.

      1. I know what you’re saying, Jack, but the DAX has basically held 11000 while we have lost 30 points+ which was quite suprising for me as they seem to have initiated our weakness recently.

  4. Sometimes when it feels and looks bad it’s time for a long. Although I’m 50 points down at the moment. I remember being short S&P at 2125 and riding that peak. Felt like it was going to 2200. Same here I feel. 6500 looks close so expect 6800!

  8. If it wasn’t for EMA on 10min I would go long on Dax. MACD is suspicious but may show tandem if pivot holds (Dax).

    1. I left Dow with regret. 4 points per spread out of open hours is too much to bear. Dax offers smaller spread. Testing new strategy.

      1. 54 trades today so far and total 74.44 pounds. Don’t know in points, but if you take 1 lot each trade 0.65pence so it may average to 114.5 points today. It was quite exciting but I got really tired now. All trades are longs, started at 9.11 and finished pretty much now. I will take the rest of the day off to figure out what just happened.

          1. Yes, tiring, plus I don’t feel well today myself but yesterday I had a good run and gained 40 pounds so decided to carry on today while I am at it and if I lost them I would have stopped.

      2. Jack,
        I trade the DOW with GKFX during both Globex hours and regular trading hours. The spread on my broker’s MT4 platform is 2 points at all times and the minimum stake is only 10 pence per point.

        Regards,

        KJK

        1. fireworks with FOMC – usually explodes up and then comes back down to where it started from, but I’ll probably be out before.

      2. From the Guarniad: Over in Athens reports are coming in that EU commission president Jean-Claude Juncker is poised to propose a new compromise, in a bid to end the stalemate between Greece and its lenders.

        The new proposal is expected to be sent to Athens in the coming hours with well-placed sources not ruling out the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras having telephone contact with Juncker this evening.

    1. Brave shout Senu, not much in the way of pullbacks since 70 really, what’s your target?

        1. micro-resistance from this morning. What’s the bet we’re going to close at 6710 for a third day?

        2. I like your style 🙂
          I will add my huge selling pressure at 97, that will tip the balance.

          1. Yes, looks like just a hiccup in an inexorable grind upwards, should have longed at 97 for a few.
            I don’t trust it though, neither DAX nor DOW are very impressive, DAX trying to stay back over 11000 and DOW not really broken 940.
            Too much assumption about, makes it vulnerable to a sharp dip for me.

      1. me too, I actually went long @ 72 and came out 83, shouldn’t have closed it too earlier..

    1. eh …? oh you want higher? Yeah this could go to 6720-40 this evening with FOMC fireworks. Bet we come back down again tomorrow or Friday.

      1. Had a neutral day today. Took long at 6701 this morning stop was below yesterday’s low. The size of the dip took me by surprise (like many others I guess). Closed at 6710 for a measly 9 points. Oh well, at least it wasn’t a loss.

          1. The one time my system gave me a flashing light today was to sell at 16, 45 minutes ago, and I didn’t because was drinking the bull Kool Aid.

            So, is 80 a pre FOMC long?

  18. 6666.6……ominous, especially the interpretation that the Number of the Beast referred to the rise of a supranational currency.
    Anyone ever traded off Biblical references?

  19. An extra E1.1b in credit = 2 point bounce lol
    oops rally over.
    I would so like to short this but I haven’t got the b*lls.

      1. LOL

        Would’ve taken 10 🙂
        I’m just thinking about what a mess IG’s platform will be in in the morning when they GREXIT.

        1. Yeah only managed 10 points on that bounce off the pivot. Be glad when the Greek junk is out the way! Actually glad to just do the one trade and make some points really!

        2. Oooh, a bit harsh BB, his 6655 support’s holding like a good ‘un.
          You still comfy with your long?

          1. Must be a turning point coming up. The haters are back. bet the iii forum is getting filled with bile too

        3. By the way, BB and Argyle are one and the same as per the image below – same IP address. I did the decent thing and redacted your email (probably fake) address though. Play nice or don’t play at all.
          http://prntscr.com/7i2y1t

  20. The knives rain down and I’m not under the shelter… Out on the open with my palms out

  21. Should be a good bounce at 7pm if interest rate decision is as expected. All that money needs to go somewhere. Watch the Dow rocket.

        1. Got ejected out of Argyle once as a youth. Raises smiles when I repeat the tale now!!!

  23. Anyway before my departure, FTSE climbing back up. Can see 6700 by open in morning. Big rise tomorrow.

  24. Yes Nick, Derek Adams. Ticked every box for us. Young but with a track record and brings on youth players. Need to get back to championship level asap. Same as Pompey do.

  25. Had to hang around to sell that, now get back down to low 70’s please, I’ve got dinner at 8.

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