Support 6692 6671 6657 6655 6627 Resistance 6698 6740 6766 6897

Good morning. Overnight we have had a little bit of a bounce with the moving averages on the 10 and 30min turning a bit bullish. Maybe I was a bit early with that long yesterday and worries over China and tech results int he US scared the bulls a bit more than was necessary. If the 6660 holds as the low we could resume the uptrend for the rest of this week, and 6671 is the bottom of the 10 day Raff now. Earnings season in the US is seeing a mixed back with some missing and some beating. Feels like a buy the dip day today so far.

Greece
Greece passed a second bundle of policy measures demanded by the country’s European creditors as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras urged lawmakers to stop the country being forced out of the euro. Tsipras won the support of at least 151 lawmakers in a televised, public vote in the 300-seat parliament in Athens for a bill that will simplify court decisions and transpose European rules on failing banks.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose as a rally in Japanese equities countered a decline in mining shares amid a deepening commodities rout.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1 percent to 143.76 as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo. A gauge of commodities returned to a 13-year low, with a rout that started in gold infecting other metals, oil and farm products. The Nasdaq Composite Index slumped on Wednesday by the most in two weeks as disappointing results from Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Yahoo! Inc. rippled through technology stocks.

“There’s a fear the world economy is slowing and that’s why commodities from iron ore to oil, gold and silver are all going down,” Jim Bianco, Chicago-based president of Bianco Research LLC, told Bloomberg Television. “This has been a ho-hum earnings season.”

Japan’s Topix index gained 0.6 percent while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to open.

South Korea’s Kospi index slipped 0.1 percent. The country’s economic growth slowed in the second quarter as the outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome damped consumer spending in an economy that’s already struggling with weak sentiment and an export slump.

Rate Cut
New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slid 0.2 percent. The nation’s central bank cut interest rates for a second time in six weeks and said further easing will likely be needed to stoke inflation as growth slows.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland companies traded in Hong Kong dropped 1.2 percent on Wednesday, bringing this month’s losses to 9.6 percent, the worst performer among 93 global benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg, as the bull market in mainland equities ended. The Hang Seng Index slid 1 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.2 percent.

International investors have soured on Chinese stocks as the nation’s government took unprecedented steps to arrest a rout that erased almost $4 trillion of value. While the measures helped support share prices, critics say intervention undermines the country’s pledge to increase the role of markets in the world’s second-largest economy.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.2 percent. The U.S. equity benchmark index retreated 0.2 percent on Wednesday. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Todays pivot is 6698 so we have a bit of resistance here, but I have a feeling we will break through this morning as there is a bit of bullish momentum building looking at the moving averages. The crossed to bull on the 30min chart in the early hours, so we could well get an initial run towards 6720, and ultimately a rise above the 200ema at 6740ish. We shall have to see if there bulls have any/enough power to break through that for a final push too the top of the 30min channel. Support wise, we have the 10 day Bianca at 6671 so a good place to buy into any dip at this level, with 6661, 6655 and 6627 as supports below this. Looking at the S&P the 10ema at 2110 held pretty well yesterday meaning it hasn’t dipped and tested the 25ema as yet. The 10 day Raff lines up with that level so any dip to 2103 is worth a long.

77 Comments

  1. Morning.
    My bear is pretty much awake now so I took advantage of 6710 first thing and have laid quite a big medium term short there, stop 6760, first target yesterday’s lows, ultimately 6400’s.

    Was also a nice scalping short, I don’t really know why we were that high anyway, just covered and longed at 75 for 10 and a possible short 90/95.

    1. Noooo! The last time you went in long-term short the market shot up! 🙂 I’m personally a bit dubious how low we’ll go with FOMC next Weds. US markets often seem to rise into FOMC which may slow down this pull back, though I’m still looking for 6600.

      1. Oooo unfair ZZ, last time I turned down +120 points, moved my stop to b/e too early and then missed out on +200 which I would probably have taken.
        I don’t expect it to meltdown this time, but we’ll see what we see.

        1. Fair point. Actually I’m pleased – the more people who are shorting the greater the chance I’ll get my 6600 (maybe).

          1. I don’t expect my £50 will make much difference lol.
            What we need to do is convince Argyle to short, with his firepower he can move mountains 🙂

  2. Morning tmfp I closed that long last night at 82.1 just regained 19.6pts but it’s a good start

    2. Nick’s arrows are for today Jack, my short is for a week or two.
      He may well be right, the 10 day Bianca’s holding ok atm.
      What’s your thinking for the medium term, up or down from here?

      1. Fuf, you scared me, mate. I thought it was going to crash. It looks a bit bullish. Thanks for advise.

        1. We’re all shining our homemade torches in a dark room looking for the door marker “Profit” Jack 🙂

        2. Thanks, got what I needed 25 points from Dax with my methods. There was a green line on a chart so I hoped for a bounce of that.

          1. IG’s Beauchamp has 11601 as pretty important resistance Jack, as our DAX man do you agree with that?

          2. I didn’t watch markets for a week or so, only occasional trades based on momentum, I was very busy and today is the odd day trading before a holiday.

    1. Too true.
      I’ve tacked the last hour of pre market onto my trading day, can be a bit hairy but at least stuff happens.

  7. I don’t have any idea which way to trade today,It just seems very nervous, think I will sit this out for a while.

  8. Well, if 78’s all it can manage for a bounce it’s a pretty poor show, so short 76 10 point stop looking for new lows.

  9. Bearish Pattern on the DOW as it rejected 17854 …
    See if 17838 holds…
    I know I keep bangin’ on about these gaps ! but there is one below
    17776 area from 10 July

    1. A fill of that would be nice Hugh, possibly correspond with a test of our lows from yesterday.

      1. Think we’re on our way …
        FTSE 6652 was yesterdays low – any buyers there i wonder ?

        1. – RSI Trio – but not using 6655 about – but these are hit & miss in trending markets

        2. Couldn’t help myself ! Went Short just on that break – will have to go again if it goes to 68 on the RSI

          5. Popped a Long on at 6660 – Closed at 65 just to recover some of it…
            Really thought this might have taken a leg lower but just looking at the RSI 31 on 1min – nice divergent signal ..always easier in hindsight.

  10. Does anybody else here feel a bit of a muppet trying to “read” 7 – 10 point movements ?

    1. It’s not the size of the moves for me Jim, it’s the periods of inactivity in between that make the rsi oversensitive.
      The 1min 10 can go from oversold to overbought in six points. You just have to hope you make enough X6 points to pay for the breakout one.

  11. I know we’re all nice and busy, but it’s Sweepstake Time again soon.
    Usual rules £10 to charity for worst guess, cut off 16.00.

    2. Tricky one today, amazing to think we were here nearly exactly yesterday.

      I think I’ll go the same again 6666

    3. And Senu wins by a country mile, well done mate, our local Leukaemia Hospice is a tenner better off
      🙂

      1. Target 75 I think the Dow will push it up after 4.30 just a hunch no fancy technical stuff

          1. Lol, Rule number 1 of stops is: never move your stop.
            (But we all do it occasionally)
            GL.

    1. May take a breather but I think we’re on our way to 6600 tonight/tomorrow morning. 55 point after hours move maybe?

          2. Need S&P and DJ to pull up a little bit to get some positive chart patterns > 2106 & >17760

  20. 6624….looking cheap for the morning?
    Taken out another third of my notverylongterm short lol.
    Giving it back at 50+.

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