Good morning. Well here we are, ECB announcement day. Was yesterdays news of 50bn Euro a month a leak, just testing the water to see the reaction, or a move to pump it higher so if it drops, it drops from higher up? So cynical! It certainly got the bulls in a frenzy anyway, with a rise through 6700 and an overnight high of 6740. The ECB all kicks off with the rate decision at 12:45, then Draghi’s press conference at 13:30. Prices likely to be jumpy around that time! We could get a rise this morning the top of the 10 day Bianca around 6772, and both the Raffs are heading upwards now, with the strength this week. Support is at the pivot initially, 6692.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell even amid speculation the European Central Bank will boost stimulus through a sovereign-bond purchase program under the quantitative-easing strategy.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) lost 0.1 percent to 134.46 as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyobefore markets open in China and Hong Kong. An ECB Executive Board proposal calls for as much as $1.3 trillion in asset purchases through the end of 2016, according to two euro-area central-bank officials who have seen the document. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.5 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.6 percent to extend a seven-year high yesterday.
“I’m not convinced that even a 1 trillion euro package will be enough to save the euro area,” said Matthew Sherwood, Sydney-based head of investment markets research at Perpetual Ltd., which has about $21 billion in funds under management. “It may be the case that this process has dragged on so long it’s mostly factored into financial market prices.”
Japan’s Topix index slid 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.5 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index added 0.2 percent after yesterday closing at a record high.
The ECB proposal could still be changed significantly, the people said, asking not to be identified as it is confidential. Purchases won’t start before March 1, one of the people said. The central bank will announce its policy decision today.
China Rebound
China’s Shanghai Composite Index jumped 4.7 percent yesterday, the biggest advance since October 2009. The gauge plunged by the most in six years on Monday as the nation’s biggest brokerages were suspended from adding margin-trading accounts.
China’s world-beating stock rally is over, according to the latest Bloomberg Global Poll. Some 58 percent of the survey’s 481 respondents said the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) will either decline or remain little changed over the next six months after a 55 percent advance since June. China’s economic growth slowed to its weakest pace in 24 years and a real-estate developer’s failure to meet an interest payment is raising the specter of a pickup in debt defaults.
Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed after the underlying measure advanced for a third day yesterday. Profit at S&P 500 companies probably climbed 0.8 percent in the final three months of 2014, analysts predicted, down from an October estimate of 8.1 percent. [Ref]
FTSE Outlook
Tricky one to call today really as its going to be so news focussed. Support is at the pivot 6695 and there is the bottom of the 30 minute channel at 6680ish. On the upside, we have the 10 day Bianca channel top at 6772 so may see a bit of profit taking on long there if its hit prior to the ECB news. They could announce anything really, so sometimes its best to keep your powder dry. I have plotted the arrows for a dip off that 30min channel around 6755, down towards the pivot and then another round of buying. I am 50% confident in todays arrows just so you know! I will try a long at the pivot area 6695 stop 6680 and see what happens. That said, we have some PRT resistance on the daily around 6750, and the rsi(10) is at 70 so a little overbought at the moment – they might well want to slow this rise down a bit, so support below the pivot is at 6655 and 6635. 6600 for a bit of round number support.
Morning more dip buying b4 the news?
The rumour has been bought so, do you sell the news?
Here’s my guess, up to around 6800 then down to 6500, probably not all today lol.
Difficult times for a short term fader trader like me, I think I’ll just get the popcorn out and watch this one.
Judging by the swings yesterday afternoon cash preservation might be a decent trade until it all settles down.
So, a £3.5 billion miss on UK monthly deficit is worth barely 20 points off the FTSE??
Crazy.
Closed short, I feel this will be more bullish today but I will sit today out to much risk.
Nick, you still holding your short @ 50? I didn’t close mine. 🙁
Looks like there is a chance to now
I missed again glenw. was away for a meeting. 🙁
There could be a small sell off within the next hour before the QE perhaps?
I also get called into meetings can be frustrating sometimes a nice surprise when I return sometimes not.
Seems all markets are sitting on their hands till later
FTSE/15 mins. — System short from 04:45; long from 08:15. Current gains just off their peak at the moment.
04:45/11602; 08:15/11579
Apologies; above refers to EURUSD‼
Have you placed any trades Jim?
Too late this morning. 😀
me stopped 🙂
Not much move in DAX, anyone long in DAX?
Too High to buy at these levels now b4 ecb
What do you think will happen once the announcement is made later?
Vigorous “tick” from Nick. Kind of expected to be volatile.
Freezing here.
When is the announcement?
13:30pm
Thank you, Senu. Appreciated. Are you going to trade THIS?
It’s already long since 12.10ish. But it could “tick” down, scary.
announcement 12.45 press conference 1.30
Oh. look Dax.
Perfect long on Dow.
I am not trading Jack,
Good decision, me too.
may be small short if it goes to 6795
smokingaces, are you still with your dax short taken last week?
Does anyone know what this means? I was long on DAX and tried to sell at 12:45 and had this in my IG history “Unable to process, contingent order in process. Then I got stopped out but I was trying to sell 30 points up seems unfair, I have checked the tick history and it spiked before it dropped.
After talking with IG I got stopped before I put the sale, but looking at the ticket history it doesn’t make sense. Its not big enough loss to stress about just frustrating.
Hi Senu nope took profit on that then jump back in yesterday and took good profit on that big drop am waiting but will jump in again but only a small short as its a gamble today
up up there it goes..
very bad luck, i cancelled my order @ 95 ..errrrrrrrrrr
Order hit short dax 10400!
Good work 😀
Very unexpected. I was monitoring paper long. That was totally shocking.
These moves seem massive but they don’t direct you anywhere. EMA are still quite bullish.
Back where we started at 1.30, hopfully now the US will lead the way this afternoon
To me shorting the Dax at 10400 was a safe option, even if it went higher the market are still waiting on Greece election anyway that was a fast 100 points going to sit and watch now. Try and get back in at 10400 this afternoon
Nice one 🙂
smoking, with that 1.1 number, do you still think it will fall?
Thanks smokingaces great tip
Nick impressed me with his arrows today. As I said he is writing arrows for Dow, compare it for interest. Keep up.
Tricky day to trade though.
Senu jump back in at 10410 will hold now for Greek election results where I think we will see a drop, also think on a longer scale QE will make little difference to Europe its F@@k no matter how they try to play it.
celebrations going on 🙂