Support 6681, 6677, 6672, 6641, 6601 Resistance 6690, 6714, 6746, 6787

Good morning. Well so much for saying I didn’t think 6641 would get hit but I am very glad that I put the long from there in the trade plan! The initial long off the pivot failed so hopefully you managed to change to a short when the stop got hit which recouped that stop out. The US were really not in the mood to see the indices lower, with a continual rise from the off yesterday, and the S&P is now back testing 2056 – an interesting resistance level though. The Bianca charts have updated now, and are showing resistance at 6746 and 6787, with support virtually were we are around 6680 on all 3 channels. Rochester by election has seen another UKIP MP in another blow to the establishment. The GE next year should be interesting…

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rallied, with the regional index paring its weekly retreat, after a report thatChina’s central bank injected funds, while crude oil climbed a second day. Japan’s yen rose for the first time in seven days as Finance Minister Taro Aso said its decline has been too fast.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP)climbed 0.3 percent by 2:28 p.m. in Tokyo. Chinese shares rose after Market News International reported that the People’s Bank of China offered 50 billion yuan ($8.17 billion) of short-term funds to ease a shortage of cash in the financial system. The yen added 0.3 percent to 117.82 per dollar, paring its biggest five-week loss since 1995. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed. Oil in New York added 0.6 percent and is heading for its first weekly gain since September.

Asian equities retreated this week as data showed the region’s two largest economies struggling, with Japan falling back into recession and Chinese factory activity at a six-month low. The yen is the worst-performing major currency versus the dollar this month after Japan’s central bank boosted record stimulus and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shelved plans for a sales-tax increase. Analysts polled by Bloomberg are split on if Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members will cut supply on Nov. 27

“The dollar has gone up so quickly, close enough to the next big round number to encourage profit taking, but it still feels like it’s in a rising trend since Oct. 31,” Greg Gibbs, the head of Asia-Pacific markets strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Singapore. “The market will search for the right levels to buy again. It’s purely technical, unrelated to any economic news.”

Dollar Gains
The Hang Seng Index added 0.3 percent, paring its drop since Nov. 14 to 2.8 percent, with a gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong climbing 0.3 percent. The benchmark index’s biggest weekly loss since March coincided with the launch of a trading link between the southern city’s bourse and its counterpart in Shanghai.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.6 percent as all five industry groups advanced. The gauge 17 percent this year as funds flowed into Chinese equities ahead of an the link with Hong Kong, which started Nov. 17. The program allows a net 23.5 billion yuan of daily cross-border purchases.

Stock buying through the exchange link slowed again today. Global investors used up 8.2 percent of their 13 billion yuan daily quota of Shanghai shares through the link. Mainland traders utilized 1.1 percent of the 10.5 billion yuan quota for Hong Kong equities.

Topix Swings
Japan’s Topix index fluctuated and is heading for its first weekly decline since Oct. 24. Eighteen of the 33 industry groups on the gauge advanced today. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average, the best-performing major index this quarter among 24 developed nations monitored by Bloomberg, is down 1 percent this week.

Abe will dissolve the lower house of parliament today for the vote to be held in mid-December. His cabinet will resign as part of procedures required in advance of the election.

The dollar rose to 118.98 yen yesterday, the strongest level since Aug. 9, 2007. That took gains to more than 11 percent since the close on Oct. 17, the last time the U.S. currency finished a week lower against the yen.

The greenback has benefited from a U.S. economy that’s strengthened enough for the Federal Reserve to end its dollar-debasing bond-buying program and consider the timing of its first interest-rate increase since 2006. That contrasts with Japan and the euro region, where officials are battling deflation with further stimulus policies amid record-low interest rates.

The euro rose 0.1 percent t0 $1.2554 today and the won was little changed at 1,114.76 after finishing at the weakest level since Aug. 28, 2013, yesterday.

Crude Rebound

Oil futures advanced as much as 0.8 percent in London and 1.3 percent in New York. West Texas Intermediate crude contracts fell 30 percent from a closing high on June 20 through yesterday and traded at $76.24 a barrel today.

Half of the 20 analysts surveyed this week by Bloomberg forecast OPEC will cut supply at its Vienna meeting to stem a plunge in prices while the other half expect no change. In the seven years since the surveys began, it’s the first time participants were evenly split. The only episode that created a similar debate was the OPEC meeting in late 2007, when crude was soaring to a record.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Will we get the usual Friday shenanigans? Todays pivot is 6672, and we are sitting on resistance at 6690 as I write this so suspect that we may get a little dip to that before another rise. I am not sure how much higher the S&P will go in this leg and if that starts to dip then the FTSE will surely follow – it will be interesting though as its currently sitting on the Bianca channel supports so that would suggest some more upside. Above 6690 the next resistance level is 6712, with 6750 and then the Bianca channels above that. I have a feeling today might be a bit bullish as it hasn’t really given up those gains from yesterday as yet, so any dips to support would be good long entries. As mentioned the Bianca channels are showing support here at 6680, whilst yesterdays low at 6641 is below that. If that breaks then 6600 is next. I don’t think we will see those 2 lower supports today. A short off the top of the Bianca channels at 6746, then 6787 would be worth a go though. Can it add 100 points today? It is option exert today so will get a little choppy at 10:10ish.

88 Comments

  3. Great arrows Nick. What about the rest of the day :p?!

    I’m drawing them down for my own state of mind…

  7. Europe still moving up, after Draghi speech and no action…
    FTSE moving down…what are we expecting of US markets? Twist and moving down at open?
    Amazing how Draghi spoke and market accros jumps up 1%+, that’s a lot of money! Anyway wonder how US will react to speech and no action and still dooming economy…

  9. Interesting spike on Dow, what’s funny I was actually thinking to go long a minute before that. Interesting what caused it.

    1. Things like that, if you have a trade on wrong side, it just blows you out, that’s this weeks taking gone :-(, didn’t expect that

  13. goodness me! just came out of that short from 6705 at 6700 before that spike. By the time i set my order for long ftse shot up.

  15. It’s very tough as a trader….you can not predict a news like that…we have facts showing global economy in shit…UK ministers speech etc and then you have central bankers pumping money into the market for more asset bubble…but volatility has increased and today has become very very bullish, yesterday feared if 6641 would hold, and today we are 6740…are maybe moving higher now…
    Do you think today will continue bullish when US open or possible afternoon pull back? 🙁

    1. US is doing ok, rest of the world is in shit. I was expecting SPX profit taking at 2060/70 range doesnt look like its going to happen anytime soon, at the most pullback to pivot and back up this afternoon. Next week, Thursday off and Black Friday rally because US retail sales will do good. Week after next, all set for santa rally (everyone on the planet spends for xmas/holiday season so good business) SPX 2100 + year end. I dont think there is enough time for decent pullback or sell off. May be worth a gamble to long now and hold on untill year end 🙂

  16. They’ve gone into a recession and started QE i think cutting interest rates was always next on the list? The band is getting stretched it’s got to break soon?
    I haven’t a clue about the yanks. They’re idiots… I can’t imagine they’d wake up to see the market all the way up here and not have a slight pull back. That being said:
    “China’s so-called “exports” are really for American companies for American consumers.” So if everything is now cheaper for them to make then this will also be good news for the states? Could it already be ‘priced in’ by the time they wake up though?
    Could i also be over analysing…. Must remember it’s more important to know what to do not what the market will do.

  17. One thing though, after 5 years of boost from governments “medicine”, the world economy “patient” is not ready to leave hospital to manage themselves, and instead need new boost “new medicine”, as conditions are worsening….
    If I was the relative “market” would not be so happy suddenly…
    “My overall view”

  18. Well what a mess this world is getting into… This all stems from 2008 with the sub prime mortgage now 2014 and the mess is still there and getting bigger america and to a degree uk have stable there ecomnies and have a more solid base to build on, but Europe is in the shit Japan in recession now China feels the need too drop interest rate to create growth. This is all going to end bad pumping money into economy’s and burning your currency against other major currencies don’t work just create more bubble some where else, can’t see much of any pull back this year but can’t buy into this madness.

          1. Be careful…although option expiry…still so bullish…its unbelievable…The more US stretches the bigger the fall, back to trend lines, because no clue how high this will go maybe wait on side-line until stocks drop below certain level for confirmation?

  21. I don’t know, bulls have bruised me today and scared of US 🙁
    Futures are so much up, however I did hear on Bloomberg once last week, that institution would like to take some longs off the table once S&P in the 2070-2075 region. Futures hit 2070 today, so not sure…but rally since yesterday DOW 17600 and now 17850…could go up to 18000…so soon…
    Anyway I will watch for a bit…but GLA

  22. Dutch gold repatriation and others why now ?
    yanks are holding 52% of the worlds gold and wont give it back. why ?

    1. i went with 4 times my usual stakes and out for just 3 points profit – too risky. Will wait for US open to see if SPX dips to pivot.

  28. higher it goes the harder it is to buy and with the lack of pull backs playing the short side doesnt work.. this is pure madness

  29. Gold Repatriation Stunner: Dutch Central Bank Secretly Withdrew 122 Tons Of Gold From The New York Fed. some thing is a brewin !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  31. Too many divergent signals to short or buy….rather stay out I think.
    For now the Bulls have gone mad….DOW up up up up one-way continues…hence won’t short..or..buy.

  36. Yes Senu short of 7. Made 100 points this week even when being a bear in this market! So not too bad. All of that profit is obviously being eaten away now though… Let’s see what 2.30 brings

  38. I’m so glad I closed all my shorts 17650 a couple of days ago. I sensed it would go higher. Even if it went down it wouldn’t matter to me as the pain being on the top, that feeling prevailed (my max was 17734 when I said I had enough). Cos when you are on top you don’t know what to do. When it starts lowering you imagine all sorts that it’s the start of a major drop or something. But it’s all illusion. This is to Mlawrence01. I don’t know how long you are short but I don’t want you to feel pain in the end. It’s not worth it, the pain. Being stopped is the end of pain by the way and you will even feel happy of a loss, although it sound a paradox, but it’s true.
    So basically, if you still can afford, you can hold of course, but if it still doesn’t break support on the next melt down it may go even higher, it’s a trend which nobody knows when it ends. Maybe the end is close as we’ve waited for so long, but maybe not. Is it worth risking for just MAYBE?

      1. I want this dow to close in red now.. idiot. irritated me throughtout last night and I booked a big loss this morning. grrr

  45. Bloody spread could have done with those 20 points!

    Safe to say i’m not having Chinese tonight…

  47. Looks like i missed high of the day due to broker! Next price would have been 45-95 so would have just closed for 30 points. Grrrr.

    1. Hi Jim
      Need some help from you, I am trying to do a backtest setup on a MA in pro realtime. How do I set up the signal to buy/sell signal on the colour change on the MA? I am not using a cross over signal just hoping to set it up on the colour change on the MA.
      Thanks for any help

  50. Haha Jim

    Smiling a little perhaps but a long way to go. Has been a rollercoaster but do think we will finish higher from here at year end so 6800 – 6900 looks distinctively possible if not higher. I bought a 7000 Dec call at 6p a few weeks ago when the FTSE was around 6300. So anything above 7006 at 19th Dec would be nice but not that likely.

    Was expecting 1 dip in November but although we have had some small daily falls we haven’t seen one on a weekly basis as we have been up 3 or 4 weeks in a row now.

    GLA

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