Support 6601, 6563 Resistance 6624, 6633, 6659, 6666, 6726

Good morning. The 6590 FTSE support area held well yesterday and there was a bit of movement in the end, mainly triggers by Greece calling snap elections. The bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel is 6601 today and I think this will hold, for a push to 6633 (yesterdays close). If the bulls can break this then we should get a fairly decent climb, probably to hit 6660 today, if not higher.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell amid shrinking volumes, with the regional index heading for its first annual drop since 2011. The euro declined to a two-year low and crude retreated, while palm oil climbed for a ninth day.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) lost 0.7 percent at 2:46 p.m. in Tokyo, extending this year’s retreat to 2.8 percent. A gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong sank 1.2 percent, while trading on Japanese, Korean and Indian bourses was more than 20 percent lower than the 30-day average. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.1 percent. The euro slipped 0.2 percent and crude traded near a five-year low. Palm oil headed for the longest stretch of gains in a decade on flooding in Malaysia.

The dollar-denominated Asia Pacific stock gauge has lagged behind equity rallies in the U.S. and Europe this year as the Bloomberg JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index (ADXY) headed for its biggest annual retreat since 2008. Data this week is projected to show China’s official gauge of manufacturing industries fell to a more than two-year low in December.

“With the holidays coming up, investors are wanting to sell out of some positions to limit any risk of bad news coming out while the market is closed,” said Takashi Aoki, a Tokyo-based money manager at Mizuho Asset Management Co., which oversees about 3.96 trillion yen ($32.9 billion). “It has a big effect because turnover is so low.”

Topix Falls
Japan’s Topix (TPX) lost 0.9 percent on the nation’s last day of trading this year, trimming its 2014 gain to 8.4 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 1 percent and the Korean Kospi retreated 0.6 percent. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index headed for its biggest retreat since Dec. 9, while the Shanghai Composite Index of yuan-denominated shares rose 0.2 percent.

The mainland measure has climbed 50 percent this year, posting the biggest gain among 71 benchmark equity indexes tracked by Bloomberg worldwide. The S&P 500 has gained 13 percent, set for a third straight annual advance, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index is up 4.9 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index of developed and emerging markets has gained 3.1 percent.

Weakening currencies have eroded returns on Asian equities for dollar-based investors this year. The yen has depreciated 13 percent against the greenback, while the Malaysian ringgit fell 6.5 percent and the Korean won retreated 4.5 percent. The Bloomberg JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index has dropped 3.1 percent and is trading near the weakest level since 2010.

Greek Election
The euro slipped to $1.2127, the lowest since July 2012. Three-year bond yields in Greece rose above 12 percent yesterday and the country’s stock gauge slid as much as 11 percent. Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras will ask for a general election to be held on Jan. 25, a few weeks before the nation’s 240 billion euro ($292 billion) bailout expires.

“The Greek economy is headed towards disaster like a car crash in slow motion,” Michael McCarthy, the chief markets strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, wrote in an e-mail. “But the damage is likely to be limited to Greece itself and a few adventurous investors.”

Palm oil contracts for March delivery rose as much as 0.8 percent to 2,305 ringgit ($658) a metric ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives in Kuala Lumpur.

Rubber Rallies
The heavy rains that flooded parts of Malaysia over the past two weeks will continue for at least another week, risking disruption to the palm oil harvest, Commodity Weather Group forecast yesterday. The ringgit slipped 0.2 percent against the dollar as Malaysia evacuated more than 200,000 people as of yesterday.

The downpours also hurt rubber supplies from Thailand, which borders Malaysia. Rubber for June delivery gained for a fourth day, rising as much as 3.5 percent on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange to the highest level for most-active contract since Aug. 1.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8 percent to $53.19, heading for the lowest close since May 2009. Prices have tumbled 46 percent this year as the biggest U.S. oil output in about 30 years collides with slowing global demand and OPEC’s refusal to reduce production levels.

U.S. government bonds held gains from yesterday, when the yield on the 10-year note fell by the most in almost two weeks. Rates were at 2.195 percent today, the lowest in a week. Yields have fallen about 84 basis points, or 0.84 percentage point, this year for the biggest drop since 2011.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

I am kind of expecting 6601 to hold today, and of it does then we should get a rise to 6633 (yesterdays close) this morning, with the pivot at 6624 resistance just prior to that. Above that the next resistance levels of note are 6659, 6666 and then the top of the 20 day Bianca at 6726.

Support wise, below the 6601 area we are looking at the 25ema on the daily at 6563.

3 Comments

  1. Fibonacci 23.6% @ around 6.536. 50% @ 6400.

    Might get a small end of year/start of year bounce to 6650 or just below off the 6.536. Which is an August low and October high. If the 23.6% breaks. 6400 looking likely. My thoughts just from fib anyway!

    But Im still new to this world though! Could be completely wrong!

    Regards,

    John

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