Support 6419 6410 6404 6390 6370 6344 Resistance 6455 6479 6484 6515 6520

Good morning. Definitely saw a lot of buy the rumour sell the news yesterday as the Fed releases their rate news. Frustratingly for those on IG the long order at 6356 was missed by half a point (lowest buy was 6356.5), as it bounced off the 6356 figure perfectly to rise for the rest of the session to a high at 6450 before the Fed news. Spike down and then rise again on that. I expect you saw it all but the general gist was no rate rise this month, possibly December though, and they also removed reference to global economy and financial events as a restraint for the future. Which probably means they want to raise rates but can’t at the moment.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

  • Officials say they’re considering a move at `next’ Fed meeting
  • S&P 500 climbs 1.2% amid rally in banks, energy shares

Most Asian stocks rose, with the benchmark gauge resuming its October rally, after the Federal Reserve signaled it’s prepared to raise interest rates as soon as December.

More than two shares climbed for each that retreated on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which gained less than 0.1 percent to 135.33 as of 9:04 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure surged 9.3 percent in October through Wednesday, on course for its best month since May 2009, as China cut interest rates and European officials signaled a willingness to add to stimulus. The Fed left borrowing costs unchanged Wednesday as it pivoted toward a December increase, betting that further job gains will lead to higher inflation over time and allow the central bank to close an unprecedented era of near-zero rates.

“The confidence expressed in the U.S. economy appeared to outweigh the negatives,” said Michael McCarthy, Sydney-based chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia Pacific Pty. “If the current conditions are maintained, zero interest rates are off the table this year.”

Japan’s Topix index climbed 0.7 percent after the yen weakened 0.5 percent against the dollar on Wednesday. Economists are divided on whether the Bank of Japan will add to stimulus on Friday.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.1 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index rose 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.4 percent.

The Federal Open Market Committee dropped a reference to global risks in a statement released Wednesday in Washington. The Fed’s hawkish tone caught some investors off-guard. Only last month officials seemed concerned that slowing growth abroad could delay progress toward attaining higher inflation, which Fed-watchers viewed as a warning that liftoff might get pushed into 2016.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.1 percent. The underlying gauge climbed 1.2 percent on Wednesday to the highest since Aug. 18 as banks and energy companies advanced. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

After the Feds rather hawkish tone last night we will probably see a bit of an initial dip with some profits being banked after the recent run up from the 6000 area. However, there is fairly good support at the 6410 area so this area could well be worth a little long, especially if we dip just below the daily pivot at 6419. If the bulls do find their support today then a push up to yesterdays high at 6455 looks likely, and with the 10 day Bianca at 6479 thats the next logical resistance area. I have plotted the arrow to stall at 6455 but be mindful of that possible pop higher as it would tie in with that 10min channel quite nicely. The Raffs have converged at the 6520 area so if we see this it would make a decent swing short level. With the rise yesterday the 2 hour chart has also now gone bullish again, flagging support at 6421, which is why I think any initial dip may well find some support. That said, the bulls won’t have it all their own way and with he dow hitting the 17750 level we could still get a leg down early November.

25 Comments

      1. Hi Senu,bad results from Shell obviously,and bad results from Barclays and Samsung so I think we should get some downside on Dow from here,good luck and enjoy some time out.

          1. Morning Nick,i still think 6500 is on the cards for the Ftse at some point,the relationship between the Dow and Dax and the Ftse suggests to me the Ftse has some potential for some gains but I don’t have all your technical experience to back it up,it’s just my feel for it really.

            1. If this 10 day channel at 6370 holds for support then we might well get it. Yesterday was a pump and dump by the look of it

  1. Well played Anstel, we went in long early at 6411, and stopped 6395, glad there are stops….now looks like down day all day? Typical pump late yesterday and now dump? Tricky markets, but GLA

      1. Morning.The Japanese wont add to QE tomorrow if they think the Fed might raise rates,or think people think the Fed might raise,because they wont have to.I think that is the logic.Yellen is being Lucy with the Football and we are all Charlie Brown. 🙂

          1. Not really Senu,I think the Ftse has upside potential that’s all,the Dow on the other hand was overly extended in my view.Sometimes conventional logic is why people fail don’t you think?

    1. We still havent got up through the pre Aug Trend line,but seems a bit positive to me and the day after Yellen is usually a down one anyway and tomorrow is Jpn..It seems like it might be above 400 later tonight to me at the moment.

Comments are closed.