Good morning. My first short at 6414 didn’t really work out yesterday, however, shorting from the 6455 area did, as did the 2113 level on the S&P so all in all it wasn’t too bad. The markets are pretty choppy at the moment and feel like they are not sure if they want to go up or down! Yellen again mentioned a December rate rise during her speech yesterday, though the question being asked in some quarters is if the US economy is strong enough to support the rise. However, with an ADP figure of 182k yesterday data would suggest that is. I am sure that data releases through the rest of November are going to be closely watched. With regard to the FTSE yesterday, supermarkets rose on the back of good Marks and Spencer results while house builders fell due to fears of interest rate rises. Initially commodity shares were strong but fell back after concerns of global commodities demand.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Most Asian stocks advanced after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen boosted the dollar against the yen, spurring equity gains in Tokyo.
Two stocks rose for each that fell on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which added 0.1 percent to 134.92 as of 9:09 a.m. in Tokyo. The Topix index climbed 0.9 percent. U.S. shares slid on Wednesday and the greenback strengthened after Yellen, speaking before the House Financial Services Committee, said an improving economy has set the stage for a December interest-rate increase if reports continue to assure policy makers that inflation will accelerate over time. Companies in the U.S. added 182,000 workers to payrolls in October, signaling steady improvement, figures released by ADP Research Institute showed.
“Sentiment towards a December hike is alive and well after Yellen’s comments,” Cameron Bagrie, chief economist in Wellington at ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd., wrote in a note to clients. “The Fed needs to move for credibility reasons and start nudging markets away from the cheap money sugar pill.”
Following Yellen’s remarks, Fed Bank of New York President William Dudley said at press briefing he “completely” agrees with Yellen that December is “a live possibility” for liftoff on rates. Investors are also waiting to hear from Vice Chair Stanley Fischer. Traders now price in a 58 percent chance the central bank will increase rates at its December meeting.
South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index sank 1.1 percent. New Zealand’s S&P NZX 50 Index slid 0.2 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to start trading.
China Stocks
China’s stocks rose the most in seven weeks on Wednesday, led by financial and technology companies, after the government unveiled its five-year plan to bolster the economy and investors speculated on the start of a trading link between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 4.3 percent, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland companies in Hong Kong jumped 2.7 percent.
Annual growth should be no less than 6.5 percent in the next five years to realize the goal to double 2010 gross domestic product and per capita income by 2020, President Xi Jinping said late Tuesday, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. China will also seek to increase the yuan’s convertibility in an orderly manner by 2020 and change the way it manages currency policy, according to the five-year plan.
E-mini futures on the S&P 500 lost less than 0.1 percent. [Bloomberg]
FTSE Outlook
The 10minute chart is bullish to start with and overnight the FTSE has managed to hold onto its gains made yesterday, with 6405 showing as I write this. We have the daily pivot at 6412 as the first resistance level for the bulls with 6430 and 6440 above that. I am thinking that we will see an initial rise to those upper levels before more downside. The bulls were not able to break 6460 yesterday and the S&P wasn’t able to crack on above the all time highs. So, while the charts (2hr, daily) are bullish, I am cautiously so, and still think shorts off the rallies are a decent strategy. 6440 is the top of the 10 day Bianca with 6471 for the 20 above that. The 10 day channel tops are slightly lower each day which is why I think shorting the rallies should pay off. We have the UK interest rate decision at 12pm today, I expect once again to show no change, and US jobs data and continuing claims at 13:30.NFP tomorrow should also provide clues as to the possible rate rise in December (forecast is 180k).
Back to the FTSE and the 30min 200ema is at 6393 and has provided support when tested recently, however, if it continues to be tested then I expect it will break soon. If so then a decline to 6325 looks likely.
Morning, Groundhog Day.
140 point range in 2 weeks….the break of 6385 triggered a sell sign from PIA (yeah, I know), but that seems to be the level we have to break now (and are having difficulty doing atm) or logic dictates a look at 6325ish, as per Nick says.
managed to grab some losses back from yesterday. 6325 – cant see it at the moment
No, not without outside help.
That could come in the shape of the DOW or the Carneyval. The way these Central *ankers are itching to do something in order to prove their indispensability nauseates me.
They remind me of Bishops dressed in gold, or witch doctors casting spells.
I’m still seeing 85 as a bit important, we’ve just broken it to 96 and pulled back to it, bounce or break will see the trend through till the DOW imo.
DAX obviously has instructions not to go down, but any weakness will be magnified here.
Central *ankers – legal manipulation? The DAX has that feel which impacts FTSE I sense
tmfp are you 10 either side of 85?
I hype longed at 72 what a genius 🙂 although only took +15, restraining myself from shorting at 95/00 atm
Looking to short at 15/20 on this move
and short a little at 20, more at 30 and see how we go…
think I might wait until they bring those 18k DOW caps out!
Cowardy custard lol !
Yes I know what you mean, this isn’t a move, more a revaluation, hence the sideways action for the last half hour.
I’m comfortable with the small short atm, would be nice if the DAX could have another go at 940, might shake some loose hands.
Pretty quiet again though, makes things very bitty and rhythm less.
took +15 but 940 DOW is under pressure, a little rally, reshort then 920 on DAX and 395 here, I reckon, sounds like a plan 🙂
I need to avoid that wind as I’ve been getting wet recently!
Sure, just because it’s in a narrow range doesn’t make entries any easier, keep an eye on the good old rsi though.
The DAX is reading my script anyway, but my 08 reshort isn’t exactly over performing.
C’mon let’s see those 300’s again..
Morning,It all looks a bit bullish at the moment.I have a Dax long with a stop at 10741 and the way that was missed earlier surprised me.Squint at a day chart and an 11500 limit order looks worthwhile.Just hope the day isnt about the grandstanding of Carney and his nauseating “Super Thursday” quest for attention.
Probably will be!
Why FTSE had such a surge?
Presumably because BoE saying nice things, not changing interest rate etc. Jack.
Whatever happens, you got to laugh.
Gov of BoE says economy is slow, deflating, and has made his previous projections look embarrassing, so we go up 50 points…..
FTSE looking strong again
Lol yeah, it does when it goes up……. 😉
You got anything going on atm, anstel?
I’m long from 383 and 406
I’m long Dow 901 small as well.i think a push up towards NFP.
Hey Tmfp I’ve got a new name for you :0)
waiting…..
Yogi …… The worlds favourite bear :0)
Smarter than the av-er-age bear :0)
Lol.
I was looking back over the last six months, believe it or not, 53% of my profitable trades (more than +5) were longs.
Does that make me a smart bear? 🙂
That’s surprised me to be honest,but before the Greek crisis it was generally more robust so maybe longs would have been more favourably overall.
Yes Yogi, I would say it does make you a smart bear………….:0) lol
So, what do we expect from the DOW opening?
Modestly up, around 17900 and then what?
Recent support at 17840ish and resistance at 17980, which gets tested first?
980 hopefully before 840
Wut? You actually longed something?
for entry! didnt see you was short so please ignore
Lol, you had me worried for a mo mate!
Covered the short, waiting to see which way they jump, aware also that ~95 is a 50% retrace of today’s low/high.
in at 400
out for 12
Looking good
My thoughts about 85 importance appear meaningless, just took +8 off an rsi long 77/85 and looking for a short.
85 short?
These posts are coming up very slowly, your “out for 12” wasn’t there, sorry..
Covered and long at 70 for a bounce and another short
Making a right hash of this 🙁
Out of that for nowt and trying again long 58, not saying the sellings over but my timings to pot
Out of that dubious long for +8 don’t know which way the MHH is going to jump
6325?
After hours or tmrw maybe, DOW’s broken its 3 hour uptrend at 820, add pre NFP jitters and there’s space for more downside.
A sell into a closing rally here might work, 80/90..
That’s utterly weird. I opened my terminal on spreadex and then realised that the trade was opened on Dax from 12.50 short £1… but I didn’t open any trades, as far as I remember. The last trade was FTSE long, but I never even tried Dax short today, and it was short. Luckily it was in profit so I closed it for 20 points. But it’s very weird. Maybe THEY just wanted to help me? But if I didn’t open the platform today, who knows where it would be.
However some strange things happened earlier, the platform was down for some time and when it was on I tired some trade on Dax and trade was rejected. Maybe it’s one of those suddenly reappeared? Well, gladly it wasn’t a loss.
Father Christmas came early Jack 🙂
You know, I regret I didn’t open a bit later… now for example. LOL It would be 40 points right now.
I definitely remember I tried Dax long at the price of 10937 and 12.07, that is when it was rejected. I definitely didn’t try any shorts afterwards. mm..
Covered my 08 short for +10, wary of the DOW hearing Carney’s magic QE word.
Short today, long tomorrow. It’s life.
What you thinking anstel?
I’m thinking why didn’t I take profit at 20 and get in again at 60.being greedy I planned for 40.
Sure. Apart from the last ECB rally, those press conference spikes rarely last, sell the news really.
GL.
Thanks tmfp I need to be able to trade like driving a car,instinctively,instead of being mentally involved if that makes sense,still I have a lot of rough edges to smooth but he who never makes a mistake never makes anything,good luck.
A pretty calm MHH after all.
Important 24 hours coming up, out of the two recent range limits, a test of the lower one looks likeliest.
There’s been an intense PR job by all the Central banks this week and it isn’t working at the mo.
Catch you tmrw.
Like Jack 2 says though it leaves plenty of room for some buying running up to NFP. I need to be happy with smaller price movements,I need to enter and exit the market more like when I’m scalping for 3s and 5s.
Short dow 875, 25 pt stop
out for 35 pts. not moving 🙁