Support 6389 6360 6276 Resistance 6419 6442 6474 6519

Good morning. The big news yesterday was the ECB press conference where, after leaving rates unchanged, further stimulus was mentioned yet again to keep things growing. “The degree of monetary-policy accommodation will need to be reviewed at our December meeting when new macroeconomic projections will be available,” Draghi said. “We want to be vigilant, as people used to say in the old times.” Draghi’s predecessor Jean-Claude Trichet used the phrase “vigilant” to warn of upcoming changes in policy. The 19-nation region’s woes include a global economic slowdown that is weighing on overseas sales, and a currency appreciation that’s putting downward pressure on inflation. Consumer prices fell in September and while that is largely due to a drop in energy costs, there’s concern that the declines may become entrenched. The FTSE climbed to the 6400 level where a short got a few points with a dip to 6380, before an overnight rise to 6430. Earlier in the day the automated trades ended up being stopped at breakeven despite moving into profit initially.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, joining a global equities rally, after the European Central Bank signaled it may boost stimulus this year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5 percent to 134.48 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo.

The MSCI All-Country World Index of developed and emerging-market shares surged to a two-month high on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi said policymakers will re-examine the degree of stimulus in December, adding that the quantitative-easing program will continue until beyond September 2016 if needed.“Investors interpreted this as meaning a greatly increased chance of more policy support,” said Matthew Sherwood, head of investment strategy at Perpetual Ltd. in Sydney, which manages about $21 billion. “The good thing for central banks is that they have most investors so hooked on the stimulus drug that all they have to do is boost supply and the patient will be happy again.”

Japan’s Topix index climbed 1.7 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 2.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 1.1 percent and New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index added 0.7 percent.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.6 percent since the close of cash-market trading on Thursday. The underlying gauge advanced 1.7 percent Thursday.

After the market closed, Google parent Alphabet Inc. reported better-than-projected earnings amid stronger ad sales and while keeping expenses under control. It soared in extended trading, as did Amazon.com Inc. after the Internet commerce company’s quarterly sales topped analysts’ estimates.

Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 1.3 percent and contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index advanced 1.6 percent in most recent trading. Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index rose 1.3 percent in Singapore. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

Bianca trend channels for prediction help
Bianca trend channels for prediction help

Fairly decent rise overnight off the back of the Asia session to test 6432, and with he top of the rising 10min channel at 6425 we might test that again. The top of the 10 day Bianca channel for today is 6419 so I think a short at around this area might well pay off, as people look to crystallise some profits from yesterdays rise and going into the weekend. With the stimulus talk the worm has turned for the moment so we are all good, with the Chinese slow down forgotten about for the moment. If we do dip from here then i expect a test of the daily pivot initially at 6389, and then possibly as far as the 200ema on the 30min to 6362 area. If that holds then the bulls should be able to go for a push again towards 6400 to close out the week on a fairly positive note. So a fairly simple plan for today really, as its Friday and all!

74 Comments

  1. Morning,as all of us know when we trade slightly bigger position sizes when things go wrong,they go wrong quickly! We all know that gut wrenching feeling when we wake up the next morning to realise we have taken a hefty drawdown to our account.This is the time when giving up crosses our mind,but we have to learn from our experience ,evaluate it,and take steps to minimise it happening again. I would like to offer my encouragement to Jack 2 after yesterday’s events,we are all learning and how we react to failure will determine whether we make it as traders or not. Keep trying Jack,it’s not easy,Very best of Luck.

    1. +1.
      I know that stop losses piss a lot of us off, especially as we only remember the ones that trigger and then we are proved right after all, but I wouldn’t leave home without one, as they say.
      There’s always another trade.

    2. Tell me about that, as soon as I tried a next step in my stake this happened. I got back to the level of 24 August, it’s like a throwback to the past. I think I got a ride with fellows from Back to the Future film (missed 1 day though).
      The morning came early (normally I sleep longer, hate Draghi, he spoiled my sleep lol). Well I stopped that position. Was gutted when Dax opened like a mad beast but realised it’s all lost and no point to be in this pain: most important not to lose more % of my account (I’ve been there before and know what the price may do). Wish it opened where it closed but I closed 10627 with extra trade from 10645. -250 points I guess. But that’s the story. Now writing into my spread-betting diary asking myself the same question: why did I lose my awareness…

      1. No problem Jack, I have been there and it’s not a nice place to be but as someone very important to me told me,”We don’t learn by having a good time…..we learn by failing a bit” I just remember that and try to learn from it but I have made the same mistake 2 or 3 times again before I realised that the problem was me :0) best of luck Jack.get back in the saddle minimum size when you see fit and try to get some confidence back.

  2. After the Lord Mayor’s Show feeling about today, although FTSE is the only one still to make new highs on this recovery from the lows.
    Will we have a go at 6454 today?
    With the other two DAX and DOW, both in clear air but overbought it’s a tricky one. I’m just going to play rsi scalping @ 1:1+, don’t want to spoil a reasonably good week so far, currently short at 21 10 either way after making a bit on the long side from 6404 earlier.
    I may be a bear but I’m not blind.
    GL.

    1. Stopped and turned round, to the moon! (Not really, just grabbed my 10 back and neutral now).
      DAX on a real mission, 90+ on 1 min rsi but doesn’t care.

  3. I’m just doing some scalping myself around my long position.I think the FTSE should at some point quite soon push up close to 6500 so I’m holding my long position for potential upside,I’m about 25 points up at the moment,about 15 or so off its peak so far.

  4. Hey tmfp,could you tell me a couple of things please, what is the minimum position size for USD / JPY on I G and what is the spread? Thanks

  5. Morning tmfp , anstel
    – Been enjoying a bit of time off.
    Getting alot of alerts S&P DOW
    PRT Line at 6442 (Weekly)
    But feels all a bit * yawn*

        1. You got it..
          Frustrated with myself a bit this morning. I have on my pad in big letters – “Follow the my bias indicator”.
          Open Bias was S
          8:30 was L
          8:53 was F
          10:15 roughly L (App 6422)
          Bias Still L – although I’ve got a few Triple running.
          Will review bias 6442 – 6435

    1. Felt like having some time off – so I signed up to Nick’s service.
      I just put the orders in at 7 o’clock and then free to get on with other stuff.

      1. Yes it’s taking up all my time at the moment but it’s gives me a good feel for it I think. Im hoping to take more time out soon but at the moment I’m giving it 120 % :0)

        1. Sure Anstel – It’s good to put the time in – learn everything & digest.
          Also, it has as much to do with your own personal discipline as anything else…LoL – as I’ve demonstrated in my earlier post :-)!

      1. Hi Senu yes it’s the long side of that hedge from when we shorted at 6430 ish two weeks ago,I have been trading around the position,it’s doing quite nicely.

          1. Yes Senu, I think patience is the Key to trading and emotional regulation,I have pretty much made all the mistakes that we can make as traders and that’s my conclusion after experiencing the euphoria of winning positions and the gut wrenching feeling when we give it all back and then some. If we can stay calm and rational in our execution that’s the best we can do because even with all the technical analysis that we can use we have no control whatsoever on what the market does,very best of luck.

          2. Just to add Senu the dividend on Wednesday more than covered my finance charges for holding the position :0)

      1. Think it may have been on Proctor and Gamble results.

        Got a mind of it’s own today
        R3 6467
        Off out for a bit …

  13. Senu look at the Dow it’s 650 off its peak roughly , the FTSE is 650 off its peak roughly ,it’s going up in my opinion

  18. Yes but no ones expecting this to go up so I reckon it will do everyone’s fearful of it dropping !

    1. After my “delightful” morning with some Council employees and seeing what I have missed,I expect it’ll all grind to a halt now or it’ll be an afternoon of Spread Betting companies having computer problems.I predict that the next little trend will be Tues morning because I have another appointment with some other idiots then. 🙂

      1. Yes the computer problems are very unfortunate aren’t they,, they always seem to happen when there are big movements, and lots of calculations,you think they would upgrade their equipment,but I suppose it must be the expense of it.

  21. I mentioned “My Bias” earlier …which I should have stuck to !

    This has now switched to a Short Bias
    – as always nothing is ever that clear but
    this will change if we get a closes above 6475 -78 region
    & confirmed that it’s correct on a move lower from 6450

        1. Who’s the official adjudicator for this competition ? We could do with a non entrant,Senu ,tmfp,Hugh anyone

  23. Oh well, got stopped out on that spike, presumably cos Chinese interest rate cut.
    Makes me laugh (somewhat ruefully, as it cost me money) that interest rate cuts are seen as bullish.
    0% interest rates means no-one wants or needs the money, because the economy is sh*t. But equities go up…
    Keynes has been hijacked by the global economy neo-cons. He advocated low interest rates as a way of stimulating the consumption/employment nexus for the general good, not as a way of polarising wealth by state subsidy of the private sector through money printing for debt purchase.
    It will all end in tears, probably when I’m dead. In the meantime, BTD.

    Have a good weekend
    🙂

      2. 🙂 Have a good weekend,amazing how the day finished when I showed up with the smell of Govenment offices on me.Sorry about that.

  26. Just a final post from me for the week,just closed my long at 6467.1 for +62 points,enough is enough and it’s time to take my chips off the table and relax.Its been a great trade.Have a great weekend if any ones reading this,next week chaps :0)

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