Support 6368 6358 6351 6337 6245 6207 Resistance 6396 6442 6453 6511

Good morning. Those shorts all kicked in on FTSE, Dax and S&P first thing yesterday morning but after initially falling they felt like they didn’t want to drop too much further. Cutting and running (and banking) proved to be the right decision as the markets turned and stayed bullish for the rest of the day and into the evening, with the FTSE nearly reaching 6400 by the end of the US session. Somewhat surprisingly I must admit – there was more movement out of hours than during the session! The rise is mostly being fuelled by the thought that the Fed won’t be raising rates anytime soon and the China slow down seems to have been forgotten about – its always the same – just waves and cycles!

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks followed U.S. shares higher, with the regional benchmark index heading for a third straight weekly advance, as technology and financial companies led gains.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent to 134.53 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure is heading for a 0.9 percent increase this week. Global equities resumed their October rebound, with U.S. stocks rising to an eight-week high amid bank earnings and mounting speculation the Federal Reserve will put off raising interest rates until 2016. Investors don’t see better-than-even odds of rates increasing until March next year, with a 30 percent chance of liftoff by December.

“The Fed probably won’t move rates yet and that could help support the share markets,” Tony Farnham, a Sydney-based strategist at Patersons Securities, said by phone. “While the global economy isn’t taking off as people would like it to, it’s not as if we’re falling into a deep abyss. There are some spots in the global economy that are not so dire.”

Japan’s Topix index climbed 0.8 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.2 percent. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index rose 0.6 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 1.1 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to start trading.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.3 percent to the highest close since Aug. 21 on Thursday as a government move to reorganize the telecom industry raised speculation policy makers will accelerate reforms of state-owned companies to stem slowing economic growth. FTSE China A50 Index futures climbed 1.2 percent in most recent trading, while contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slipped 0.1 percent in Hong Kong.

New Loans
China’s broadest measure of new credit exceeded estimates in September, suggesting the government’s efforts to boost lending are gaining traction. Aggregate financing rose to 1.3 trillion yuan ($205 billion), from an originally reported 1.08 trillion yuan in August, according to a report from the People’s Bank of China. That exceeded the median estimate for 1.2 trillion yuan in a survey of economists.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent. The underlying gauge jumped 1.5 percent on Thursday to its highest close since Aug. 20 as bank shares rebounded amid Citigroup Inc.’s better-than-estimated results. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

All set for a weird Friday? After that bullish from nowhere we will either follow that 10minute channel for a push higher towards 6430, or of the support are at a 6360 breaks then back down again. Initially I am thinking that the 10minute channel is worth trading of, so long at around the 6370 area if we get an initial dip, followed by shorts at around the 6440 area. We are now nicely back within the Bianca channels having broken below in recent sessions so the bulls have the momentum at the moment. The daily pivot is 6358, and we have the 30min coral at 6351, so the bulls will be keen to hold this area, otherwise a dip to 6307 looks likely. Sorry that sounds a bit vague, but its a tricky one to call after those rises last night – and as its Friday expect the unexpected. I trade with smaller stakes on a Friday as I often find it quite an odd day – the week being wrapped up and positions being adjusted as well as less trading going on means it sometimes seems a bit erratic! Anyway, I think that the bulls have managed to wrestle control from the bears that were shorting the dow at 17150, so we may well get a push a bit higher on that towards 17250 before a leg down. Still confident of year end rallies at the moment.

65 Comments

  1. Morning.
    FTSE seems to be more comfortable up here than DAX this morning.
    Options expiry at 10.10ish this morning might spike us up to 400, whether it can hold that and develop further is the question. My perception is weakness can follow, but dip buying has been the way to go recently.
    Seems to be support as Nick says around 6350, with a target of 6453 previous high.

          1. Oh well bit of a damp squib, sometimes it works, some times it doesn’t
            took +12 overall and missed the short 🙁

  2. Morning All.
    Hugh thanks for the 3 charts last night,just seen them and I will put some time into them over the weekend.Definitely didnt feel like I was pursuing happiness on Thursday 🙂
    I think the Bullish or mildly Bullish day today is as likely as everyone else seems to think it is.Since it is Friday I can’t see a close being below 6373 today (200 sma on the Weekly) maybe some slightly bad news is good from the U.S at 2.15 and 3 to start their day.I suppose it is a wait for what happens closer to the trend line we had before the end of August ?

  3. Morning if I were to estimate the Ftse price later I would say 4450 – 4490 just a wild guess of where I think we are heading.Good luck everyone.

        1. Thanks WSF yes sometimes it’s very tempting to exit a trade when we get some blue numbers after taking some heat but I kept to my original plan and it yielded 109 points so now I’ve turned my attention back to the FTSE.Very best of Luck.

    1. Thanks,your exit is around a possible entry for me on the 3 min chart at 10.33 maybe that kind of conflict threw me.10.35 and 10.36 on the 1min look pinned by a horizontal 30sma with a horizontal 50 sma a couple of points above it so it looks like that was a good exit on the 1 min,but to me the 3 min looks very different.Not that I took the 3 min trade which now looks like 5 or 6 points best case or 0 worst case anyway.I think I can see why I had the conflict yesterday,I should have cleared some stuff from the Chart Profile and obviously I shouldnt have used normal position sizes to try something,that was just stupid.
      Appreciate you taking the time to post that.

  8. Since my CNA trade has drifted into profit and was up during the down part of yesterday I’m thinking about researching Gain Capital in the U.S (GCAP) basically I just realised they bought CityIndex last october and their chart seems to have found a base,nothing to do with Greece or platform glitches or slippage on transactions recently 🙂

      1. Hugh sorry,ticker CNA : Centrica : Director buys were 2.35,120’000 buys,crucially this is the Co’s first Scrip play,shares in lieu of Dividend.Election for that is November 5th at a price of 228.52,so that has me expecting a higher price around/before then(shareholders taking shares not cash),August gap close area maybe 2.55.Some other reasons I like it,but not a long term buy and hold anyway.
        https://www.centrica.com/investors/shareholder-centre/dividend-information

          2. Just when I see something interesting,mostly “BlueChips” if that means anything anymore.SB co’s dont promote it like they promote the faster stuff but is is safer and easier to fix stop losses with companies,usually 🙂

          3. Re BlueChips people who get “Lucky” with big wins in some Alternative Investment Mkt Co’s have had their accounts closed. The selection of companies is a lot smaller than it was with my provider now. They used to have wide spreads on co’s that went from 0.25p to 4.5p or whatever and back,stuff like the Gatwick oil Co U.K Oil and Gas,who moved the money of optimistic Dentists into the pockets of City Traders.The charts on those News driven “Pump and Dumps” are amazing for seeing money change hands.Lot of people who believed RNS’s and the BBC News in that case.

    1. Hey custard, I made a joke about you the other day
      “What’s furry and yellow?”

      Long 70 for bounce

  14. Back again, if I told you what I’d been doing, you wouldn’t believe me so I won’t.
    The drift down continued then, nice little channel on the 5min and it’s getting on for DOW time.
    Haven’t a clue what it’ll do tbh, hasn’t really broken the tuesday high of 17172 and run out of steam since getting back in the 17000’s.
    Usual early run up I suppose, if it takes us to 6400 again will a short be in order or is it upupandaway Friday??

          1. out for a couple we seem to have ignored that DOW weakness and I’m not in the mood flashing lights no action

  16. We neither want to go down or up apparently one more shortside punt and that’s it for me @80 6 pt stop

          2. I don’t see any Armageddon (word of the week) stuff today, quiet end to the week maybe.
            Lows are holding both here and U.S.
            50 would fit on an exhaustion candle with a test of 17130. I’d want it to turn round quick though

          5. Thought it was a bridge too far…
            That’s it from me this week I think, a good one finishing off with a cheap lesson about over confidence, can’t be bad.

  17. Well my profit for the day is my profit for the week,so I’m off before I damage it 🙂 Have a good Weekend everyone.

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