Support 6286 6274 6270 6243 Resistance 6327 6331 6342 6354 6453

Good morning. Yesterday it appeared the markets would move higher in the morning and push up towards 6350 however after the FT100 opened it was soon clear things were turning negative. Once 6300 had been broken a couple of times to the downside then it was one way traffic until 6250 with the markets managing a minor rally near the close to 6275. It appears the main catalysts were fears of the Portugese banking system together with remaining fears of a US interest rate rise in December and therefore a stronger dollar. So the sectors to suffer most were commodities (which always seem to suffer on a strengthening dollar) and domestically supermarkets on ever decreasing margin worries. Some strength has appeared overnight with a retest of the 6300 area, and support forming at 6293 to start the day. Will we rise to the 10 day Bianca at 6354?

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fluctuated, with the regional benchmark index trading near the lowest since mid-October, as investors awaited a spate of Chinese data for clues on the extent of the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

About the same number of shares gained and fell on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which added 0.1 percent to 132.87 as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge closed at its lowest since Oct. 14 on Tuesday as slower-than-forecast inflation increased concern demand is weakening in the Chinese economy. Wednesday’s reports include data on retail sales, factory production and fixed-asset investment.

“China slowing is a trend,” Jack Ablin, Chicago-based chief investment officer at BMP Harris Bank, said on Bloomberg TV. Even if household spending replaces infrastructure investment, it has a smaller economic impact, he said. “That in itself is going lead to slowing so we’re going to have to reframe how the world views China.”

Japan’s Topix index was little changed and South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.1 percent. New Zealand’s S&P NZX 50 Index added 0.2 percent, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.3 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to start trading, while those in Singapore and Malaysia reopen after Tuesday’s holiday.

Chinese shares in Hong Kong fell on Tuesday, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index sliding 1.8 percent. The mainland’s consumer-price index rose 1.3 percent in October, official data showed, compared with the 1.5 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The report was the latest to show monetary easing failing to arrest a deepening economic slowdown, after exports declined for a fourth month in October and factory gauges signaled the nation’s manufacturing still hasn’t bottomed out amid faltering global demand.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.1 percent. The underlying measure gained 0.2 percent on Tuesday as health-care and consumer shares rose after equities’ steepest decline in six weeks. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We have the daily pivot at 6286 for today and I think we may see a bit of support here for a push towards 6354, the 10 day Bianca channel top area. As I write the moving averages are bullish on the 10 and 30 min, and if we do get a rise today then the 2 hour could change from bear to bull as well. That said, the daily chart is just turning bearish, with the 10ema moving below the 25ema, so unless the bulls break the 6355 area, I won’t be getting too excited that a year end rally is starting just yet. We also have a declining 30min channel with resistance at 6325 which could put the breaks on any rise first thing. Below the pivot sees support at 6275 and then 6255 area again, yesterday low area and also the bottom of that declining 30minute channel.

80 Comments

    1. Morning,Inflation Reprt Hearings ?
      Hugh yesterdays long limit didnt trigger overnight due to the spread and I wimped out at 07.37 🙂

    2. Morning Senu, yes I’ve been reading his pre speech interview, glad I haven’t had breakfast yet or it would be on the floor. 🙂

  3. What a difference a day makes eh? Not a seller in sight..
    The top of my channel is at 6308, broken at 0845, so an hourly close above that would maybe signal more upside.
    The DAX, if it fails around here 780 would have completed a nice head and shoulders on the hourly.
    Nice one on the 6250 longs, a good R/R, any of you bulls who didn’t….why not?

      1. I think there was a bit of buying inspired by some good Chinese retail figures from what I can make out.
        Yeah I’ve been stopped twice this morning, got a bit over excited on the short side after a long early on, clawed it back off 25. Am a grand total of +3 atm, with +5 more showing on my open short 🙂

  4. At the risk of being laughed at,this 6320 is the 50 sma on the monthly,it went flat around May,June,but the line has been good support for a long time.Aug broke it Sept was below it and October poked above it.

  5. No great panic here, but the FTSE failed at previous resistance 6330, has lost momentum and is putting in lower highs/lows.
    Back above 22 would neutralise that temporarily for another stab at 30.
    Below 10 then 05 wouldn’t look too good.
    I have half an rsi short left from 25, 10 stop and have decided to run it to the close if it doesn’t get stopped.

  6. A Vicar dies and is standing at the Pearly Gates next to a man in sunglasses,a T-Shirt,leather jacket and jeans.
    Saint Peter addresses the man,”Who are you,so that I may know whether to admit you to the Kingdom of Heaven?”
    The man replies,”I’m Joe Smith,a Daytrader”
    Saint Peter consults his list,smiles and says,”Take this silk robe and golden staff and enter the Kingdom of Heaven.”
    The Trader goes into Heaven and it’s the Vicars turn.He stands straight and booms out,”I am Cyril Chambers,Vicar of Saint Mary’s for forty-three years.”
    Saint Peter consults his list and says,”Take this cotton robe and wooden staff and enter the Kingdom of Heaven.”
    “Just a minute,” says the Vicar.”That man was a Daytrader and he gets a silk robe and golden staff but I’m a Vicar and I get a cotton robe and wooden staff? How can that be fair?”
    “Up here,We judge by performance” says Saint Peter.”He prayed more than you did”.

    1. That’s terrible lol.
      Biblical reference: I remember back in August my average short was 6666.6, made some good money off that. Did I sell my soul though? 🙁

    2. Nice joke, but there is a difference in both their prayers, day trader always pray for himself and vicar does not. 🙂

  8. I know it’s boring, but a bit of a tipping point around here, both DAX and FTSE retraced ~50% of this morning’s rise. If 910 and 02 break, another little step down would be in order.

    1. It’s hard to tell Senu, quiet and drifting, looks like a pretty boring 3 hours coming up to be honest, Dax has just bounced 20 off the 50% retracement but we’re not challenging the 1min downtrend at 02, no upside in sight unless we retake 10/12 imo.

          1. Afternoon all – held my 6312 from a couple of days ago. Obviously some missed opportunities but no lose crystalised! Looking to exit for 30s into the close given this div

          2. Afternoon all – held my 6312 from a couple of days ago. Obviously some missed opportunities but no loss crystalised! Looking to exit for 30s into the close given this div

  12. Morning all

    My short order at 6329 was missed by 2 points before a 30 odd point retrace. Can’t win ‘em all.

    Anyone know how City Index apply the divi? I’m testing their platform out. Is it similar to IG at bang on half 4?

  13. Hi, Just bad entries yesterday, today… Cannot get my grip. Yesterday nearly lost 400 money but recovered to a loss of -60. But then, eh, it’s not enough, I need to take short on Dax at 3.42 10821 and whatever I did with my extra shorts which covered the loss a bit, I closed it at 6.11 with a loss of 30. Whatever I did I still lost 90 money yesterday. Today I was eager to do well. Was glad I closed my short and entered long on the bl…dy top. Only now got my money with extra 16 money on top. Just annoyed with myself these days, I thought it won’t pull back but it did. I just didn’t want to miss out on this long as I knew it was long in spite it was already late at 9.13 to go long.
    I pulled out of rally at 10976 right now, needed to protect the returns.
    When you are watching this rally you are thinking – this is where I would have come in (and I actually did a support trade for a short time). I’ll keep going and hope better luck next time.

  14. Hi everyone,I’ve just been catching up on some rest,I saw the Dow pop up From 58 ish to 77 ish in the early hours so I was happy to leave it to get its composure back,going for a cup of tea now and wait for Dow opening,like the joke WSF thought that was funny :0) good luck all.

    1. Be careful of burnout young man, the brain can only continually process a certain amount before it unhinges.
      Used to happen all the time, the system chewed up young guys and spat them out.
      Uncle Charlie would come to the rescue temporarily, but made dealing judgement rather erratic.
      😉

      1. Funny you should mention that,I had a stonking day in the summer but had been trading 24hrs plus with a lot of pressure.I realised I was knackered so I switched the laptop off and went and sat on a beach,after the second day of relaxation I pulled out my laptop and traded from a campsite refreshed.It worked well.Thanks for your advise tmfp it’s appreciated.

  17. So, DOW time…closed at 17758, expected by IG at 804….we’re selling off so someone knows something maybe.

  20. Can’t resist the temptation to take 30 on this morning’s short at 95.
    Unless it’s on a DOW led mission back to 17660 support, looks like it’s getting a touch oversold.

  22. Failure to break the high of yesterday is looking pretty bearish. Today is looking like a pullback on a general downtrend. Shorts at the ready on that massive 6350 level.

    1. Looks like you’ll be waiting a while for 6350 Dan, I’m thinking about what to do if 660 goes on DOW and sets up a third try at 250 for us.
      Still rangebound 250/450 though, let’s not get carried away, eh?

  23. Well after a brief foray outside the 3 hr down channel, leaving bearish tails behind (today’s attempt at 30), it looks for the life of me that 6250 is on the cards for another look.
    It really depends on the DOW wanting another go at 660, which will be the third time after making a meal of it yesterday.
    Don’t see it before our close, but all the support here is this morning’s lows, which don’t mean a lot.

    1. No mate,looks like its same s#it different day:0). I want the dividend later so I’ll just wait longer for the market to come to me,no point chasing it.just watching the precedings from up my tree and waiting to pounce!

    1. Glad I resisted the temptation
      Not a bad day in the end, that mid morning tedium gets me a bit gaga though.

      What shall we wake up to tomorrow? Depends on the DOW of course, they’ve been rallying after selloffs recently, evenly poised between 17600/660 support and declining highs at 17855. Who knows….

      Cheers
      🙂

      1. I just read your post up there about shorts being out of fashion lol.
        Actually, you’re right, we are still in our range of 250/450 so shorting under 6300 is poor R/R basically.
        As I said the other day about ranging markets, the respective bull/bears always get rabid when a breakout in their favour looks close, hence never anticipate one, only act after it’s actually happened.
        The theory is self proving, if you sell the highs and buy the lows of a ranging market 3 or 4 times, then you can afford the bath when the range finally breaks and the last trade goes tits up.

  29. RSI T “Shorts” this time
    Dow 17797 – S&P 2086 – NAS 4676

    From earlier
    November 11, 2015 at 3:35 pm
    RSI T L s on DOW (Ref:17772)- S&P (Ref:2084) – NAS (Ref:4647) –
    DAX (Ref: 10899)

  30. I think I will get out of the normal side of the bed again soon! Tomorrow is another opportunity to try to get a nice entry

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