Support 6281 6242 6234 Resistance 6303 6308 6330 6335 6350 6370

Good morning. The FT100 built upon its recent recovery on expectations for more monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank next month. Antofagasta rose 5.8 percent despite copper prices remaining weak, after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to “neutral” from “sell”. Oil and gas firms also rallied as Brent crude futures rose by over a dollar. Investors also pointed to U.S. FOMC minutes, at 1900 GMT, as being able to provide clues as to the timing of a Federal Reserve Rate hike. The S&P 500 hit a session high on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting showed a solid core of officials rallied behind a possible December rate hike. The best sectors were commodities and oil, with travel and leisure being the weakest.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, following a rally in U.S. shares, after minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting showed policy makers’ faith in the world’s biggest economy, with officials saying the pace of any rate increases will be gradual.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.7 percent to 132.47 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. Through Wednesday, the gauge rallied 8.6 percent from a two-year low in September as investors prepare for the first U.S. interest-rate increase since 2006. In the statement following their October gathering, Fed policy makers made it clear that a rise would be considered at the Dec. 15-16 meeting.

“The pace of the rise is what’s much more important than the rate rise itself,” said Angus Gluskie, a managing director who oversees $550 million at White Funds Management in Sydney. “If a rise occurs slowly then markets, investors and consumers all have time to respond to it and adjust accordingly. That’s the ideal circumstance and that’s certainly what the Fed is trying to achieve.”

Japan’s Topix index advanced 0.9 percent after the yen weakened against the dollar for a third day on Wednesday. All 41 economists in a Nov. 13-17 Bloomberg poll predict no change at the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting ending on Thursday. Forty-six percent of respondents don’t expect the BOJ to boost its current pace of asset purchases — up from 33 percent last month.

South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.7 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 1.1 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index added 0.1 percent.

Markets in Hong Kong and China have yet to open. Futures on the Hang Seng Index climbed 0.5 percent and contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index rose 0.6 percent in most recent trading.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed after the underlying gauge rose 1.6 percent on Wednesday, the most in four weeks, as gains among banks and biotechnology companies led the rally. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE finally managed to reach the 6300 level mentioned way back on Monday(!) and is now hitting the top of the 2 Bianca channels at 6303 and 6308 as I write this. We have some pretty strong upward channels on the 10 and 30minute charts though, so I think we may pop up a little bit higher as the momentum is still with the bulls – the 6330 area is an area of resistance on those shorter timeframe charts, with the daily Raffs at around the 6370 area. With the daily pivot at 6282, this area could be a decent long entry, with 6235 below that for a possible swing (hold for a few days) based off the 2 hour chart.

102 Comments

  1. morning all. Licking my wounds from yesterday. Might go off for a sleep until 6400. Someone wake me in 2 hours!

      1. 🙂 🙂 On Monday night I ran my european Longs until Australia out of hours hit their intraday highs from Sunday night,how is that for a definition of Apophenia ?

        1. Don’t really know what to do, not getting any reliable rsi info, picking tops is random and expensive, but the more it marks up the bigger the dip needs to be to buy it.
          I am employing the concept of Wu-Wei today, doing nothing constructively.

          2. Strange uncoupling of FTSE/DAX last half an hour, probably because it’s so quiet.
            DAX down 18 Ftse up 7. Scraping the barrel here.
            GL.

  2. Got bloody short, don’t know why. Just closed -70 quid. It doesn’t seem to be going back. Annoyed to bits. Last time I went long and it went down instead. You never know.

  3. Morning chaps,hey I’m not trading,it’s great sitting back and watching this crap,Tmfp you can see why I think it’s a joke!!!!

      1. Good for you Si, brave added long yesterday despite all us doom mongers.
        What sort of level would tempt you to cash out?

        1. I’ve just closed yesterday’s long and I’m left with £25pp. Slowly increasing the stop for that, currently 6210. Overall I’m happy with what I’ve clawed back now and so I’m still planning to let this last position run it’s course. If it hits 6800, I’ll cash out. If it drops back 6210, I’ll let it die.

      2. Nice one Si good on you mate,this lot is the biggest p*ss take known to man.if you have the balls you might get a chunk of your account back.DONT be tempted to add to your position size like I know you want too.You will most probably be doing the sums now working out how much to add to your position to get B/e at 6500 or something,it may well be a trick,if you add and it reverses you will get in a bigger mess very quickly just be glad of small mercys shove trailing stops up behind your profit but allow it to take deep breaths,if it starts to show weakness get the hell out with part of your account,at least then you can still trade and reduce your position sizes right down and I mean right down!,,,good luck mate.

    2. Try not to get so emotionally charged when you start trading again anstel.
      We all know it’s a charade, but that doesn’t prevent patterns being seen in its behaviour and making a profit. (See Apophenics above).
      It would bother me far more if I got tempted into grudge trading and pissed money away, than if I sit here tradeless for a session.

      1. Sorry tmfp but it just annoys me so ******* much it’s organised theft.Its taught me one thing that concerned me though and that is I am able to sit back and not trade. All I am doing now is watching the precedings from a distance. Remember guys not having a position IS having a position.Good luck tmfp and everyone as always.I think I will put a smiley face in for old times sake but since I have taken my sabbatical I have grown a goatie ,hope you all like it :0)-

  4. I always think there’s something poignant about dealing alerts that continue to come up, even after they have been stopped out.

  5. Morning All,
    Last night – cheesed off with my trades, I spent some time looking at RR Targeting and S & R Lines.
    It makes for interesting trades and targets.
    I’ve re-jigged my Fib Tool to give me the 1 – 2 – 3 and Stop.
    Went Long this morning at 6328 – Stop 6310 Tgt 6381 (see chart).
    Thought process behind Long was – Trend – Stops in place & RR – so far as I can remember **!!
    Work in progress.
    (Right click open in new tab)
    http://tc.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10/display_chartimage.phtml?name=v8pm7ngzrup86vrfgwr6ktgj8&type=png&purpose=file

          1. What made 28 significant in the first place?
            I know I’m a bit of a one trick pony, but have you seen the equivalent rsi on the 30min?
            Also “the trend is up” is like saying “the piece of string is long”.

          4. Ah ok, is that the dotted red line on Nick’s chart marked 1hr?
            So you bought a break of resistance, and this refinement is for establishing R/R and likely targets?

          5. 🙂
            Just read the rest of your post – LoL – ROL
            I know – I turned the RSI off – it’s just getting in the way.
            Trend Trade or Contra Trade – I’d rather go with the Trend Trade to be honest although I know the Contra Trades are useful –
            …………could do both !

          6. Yep. pretty much it – I’ve turned the oblique lines off as I thought straight S & R would be easier to work with.

  6. So if we get to 6381
    My RR (3:1) Trades will be as follows…
    Just haven’t decided which it is L or S 🙂

    S 6381 Stp 6399 (-18) Tgt 1 6363 Tgt 2 6345 Tgt 3 6327
    L 6381 Stp 6363 (-18) Tgt 1 6399 Tgt 2 6417 Tgt 3 6435

    1. Jack using the PRT Lines
      You would have been Stopped out from a Short Trade at 10197 (Stop at 10203)
      There is an intermediate S&R Line @ 10178
      Short Entry 10178 Stop 1097 Tgt 10150-10121-10092
      But This could also be a Long Trade
      Long Entry 10178 Stop 10164 Tgt 10192 – 10206 – 10220.
      Hope you follow this …

          2. Forex charts, Hugh.
            What you seem to be doing is questioning your fundamental approach to the market, presumably because recently contra trading has been unsuccessful.

          3. tmfp I thought Hugh basically meant he had a strategy for a flat market that was failing because he was using it in a trending market ? I mean I guess he could have rejigged the Time frames,but he chose to go with a diff approach.Hugh ?

          4. “What you seem to be doing is questioning your fundamental approach to the market, presumably because recently contra trading has been unsuccessful.”

            Yes that’s correct..

          5. Hi WSF
            Exactly.
            There is nothing wrong in running two methods either.
            (Get a much better feel for the market I would have thought)

        1. Hugh, I think we have different chart prices, I am currently on another short 11140 Dax targeting 38% at 11110. Got 10 out of the table already. Fingers crossed.

      3. “What you seem to be doing is questioning your fundamental approach to the market, presumably because recently contra trading has been unsuccessful.”
        That’s correct.

    2. The last two hours might turn out to be a small top formation Jack, if it breaks 11130 there might be 30 more in it.
      Is this the same Jack who said
      “Got bloody short, don’t know why.”
      a little while back?

      Shorting anything now is picking tops Jack, death of a thousand stops.

      2. Yeah, it was me, lost 70 quid on that. Had a visitor and now back to the screen. I shouldn’t have traded before a visitor. Now, trying to win some back apparently.

  9. Anyway Hugh, congrats on a good long, does your Tgt 1/2/3 chart help you to maximise profit?
    Now we’ve bounced off Tgt 2 and are half way back to Tgt 1, what’s the plan?

    1. Stops in at 6328 – let it ride out until Target met .
      According to the oblique Lines –
      the “Target” (6381) will be met at sometime today 6:45pm or tomorrow at 6:30pm
      🙂

      1. Stop at b/e, is that coincidental technically, or financial?
        With a three target line setup, could that not adapt to some sort profit protection e.g. once you’ve hit Tgt 2 then Tgt 1 becomes the trailing stop?

      2. tmfp
        Just looking at smaller time frame.
        One RSI Signal this morning at S 6337.
        Let’s say you decided to go Short – Stops 10 Points.
        You could have also gone Long for a 3:1
        As I mentioned this is work in progress – just ideas!
        Short Chart Here
        http://tc.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10/display_chartimage.phtml?name=b0yj8y6dle6lxyp97hgd8aqgl&type=png&purpose=file
        Long Chart Here
        http://tc.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10/display_chartimage.phtml?name=wdtzvyconxyh03uxr8k8wksja&type=png&purpose=file

  10. Morning all

    It goes up, but I’m not sure why. Market went down because rates were possibly going up. Now rates are probably going up and the market goes up. Best to just look at the patterns and levels rather than interpret what the hell is going on. Shorts at the ready from the 6450 level?

  11. Got 15+10 points, out of this short on Dax (it came out of the line I was monitoring for this particular trade). Yeah, Hugh, I admit I was wrong trying to pick up the tops. Should have gone long at 9.20 instead of trying to invent a bicycle. The set up was for long actually, but I ignored it because “last time” it didn’t go.

    1. Actually “last time” was on 11.11.15 I went long on Dax just at 9.12
      Then I managed to recover on the long rally. In general – long would be correct option today and “last time”, just rushed with my long on 11.11.15
      Today I should have gone long again.

  12. “Hugh says:
    November 19, 2015 at 12:20 pm
    Hi WSF
    Exactly.
    There is nothing wrong in running two methods either.
    (Get a much better feel for the market I would have thought)”
    I had some stats on times markets spend trending vs tracking sideways somewhere,off out,but I will look for the link when I get back.Found a Neil Batho vid on Cloud trading too this morning,but got distracted watching Z Nation,didnt expect the Zombie baby or the sheep 🙂

  14. Have you heard the one about the gay magician ?
    Poof – and he was gone…

    It’s about this time that I disappear for the afternoon – lot’s on …
    Link to follow – but all my posts say they are being moderated for some reason..

    1. Not sure. I feel like running something for a time to follow my opinion rather than trying to guess a bounce. What do you think?

      1. 6330 is touted as support.
        If I’ve had an average few days like you have, I tend to bank profits too early, especially if it’s doing what has been failing i.e. picking tops..
        You haven’t got the pressure to close out same day like me, but it’s always a shame to see 30+ evaporate.

          2. I reckon we’re a DOW clone the rest today, see how they do for the next hour and watch for the MHH.
            I have a bit of a long at 30 for the sake of it, looking for a try at 40 before they fizzle out.

          6. This supposed support at 30 is making a poor show of it, looking vulnerable for a further dip (6310?) atm (like it usually does before another leg up).

  18. The steepness of this rise means that 6330 is trendline support now.
    Same goes for the DOW, could pull back to 17650 without hurting the rally, but that’s about it.
    I’m not even going to pick a top.
    But if I was, it would be soon.

  21. This rise on Dax is very suspicious for me, I wouldn’t be buying it right now. However, everything is suspicious on Dax. I decided to call it a day, recovered to midday yesterday (-17). If I didn’t mess up in the morning I would be ahead right now.

    1. I’m with you there Jack, all three look tired, but they’ve done it before and then found buying from somewhere.
      Don’t get sucked in short mate GL.

  22. I’m looking at the hourly chart and the ten minute chart and the 10 min chart on the Dow and it looks like potential for a small rise but after that strong rally I wouldn’t like to place a trade if I was trading,I seem to be scared of placing a trade that’s not like me?

    1. Quite understandable mate, after your recent experience.
      Paper trade it for a while.
      Get your head straight, do you sell strength/buy weakness or trend follow? That’s effectively the two basic choices.

      1. I think it’s trend follow but I have no idea what the trend is.I thought I might wait and see if it gets up to the higher 6000s and then play the short side,The only excuse I can think of for a major push higher i.e.7100 plus Ftse and 18300 plus on the Dow is QE4.i’m sure there will be some further excuses to pump it,God knows what,it’s for sure we won’t of thought of it,of course then another event could pull the rug out again.I just see Danger tmfp.

        1. There’s always danger mate, that’s why you need a strategy and be straight in your head about what your targets and stops are BEFORE you press the button.

          1. Trend Follower
            19 and 39 ema on short time frames is good – look at how the price moves around the two and when it does something that you didn’t expect – take notice..

          2. Would I be right in thinking your strategy tmfp is to form an idea of current trend and then say it’s bullish buy at maximum overbought on 10 Rsi and be looking for 10 -20 points,and be out of the market after MHH no matter what? This may sound stupid but i just had a simplified view of where I thought it was heading and tried to either buy dips or iif I thought the momentum was strong buy small pullbacks,Do you think some strategys are over complicated or is it me with a too simplistic approach? I have always wondered.

          3. Not really, anstel, I use the overbought rsi as a potential short entry and vice versa.
            I try not to have any preconceptions about trend, my trading is reactive to developments in the price action, trendlines, % retracements, double tops and bottoms, that sort of thing.

      1. and after cheating on my stop by .5 out for a couple.
        I can’t get this right, a long weekend is in order, where’s sunny and cheap?

          4. Havent been there for maybe 10 years,but that was an early December break and I didnt wear a Coat or a Jumper and it was Scenic,good history,food etc etc,read a book about the Knights Hospitaller on the way there.It is easy to get around too.

  25. Bit pushed for time still…
    Just a quick idea – since we have a resistance (6343).
    S 6328 Stop 6343 – Tgt 6314 – 6299 – 6284

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