Support 6269, 6212, 6109, 6063 Resistance 6350, 6420, 6488, 6504

Good morning. Well that 6150 held rather well yesterday as we had another volatile day, and the long from that level came good. Unfortunately the short at the pivot got stopped, which was a shame as it then dropped back to 6150 for an even bigger bounce! We have since held steady overnight around 6270 – right on todays pivot. The main news at the moment is of course Russia, with he Rouble getting pasted at the moment. We have the Fed meeting today and tomorrow. Russia’s economic crisis won’t stop the Federal Reserve from dropping a vow to keep interest rateslow for a “considerable time,” economists said, even as policy makers may acknowledge global risks have intensified. At 09:30 we have the BoE minutes released, and todays divi applied later is 0.3 – so not likely to garner much reaction.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Bianca Trends
Bianca Trends

Asian stocks rose before a Federal Reserve policy decision as gains in energy and utility shares outweighed a decline in Japanese equities spurred by a stronger yen.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added 0.1 percent to 134.49 as of 9:09 a.m. in Tokyo after dropping 2 percent the previous two days. Japan’s Topix (TPX) index sank 0.5 percent after the yen surged 1.2 percent versus the dollar yesterday. Russia’s currency plummeted to a record yesterday, defying a surprise interest-rate increase, while crude resumed declines today. The Fed will drop a pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a “considerable time,” according to economists.

“Focus now switches to the FOMC meeting, which has been pinned as a pivotal one,” Stan Shamu, Melbourne-based market strategist at IG Ltd., wrote in a note. “The challenge will be how to proceed given the backdrop of turmoil in the rest of the world.”

South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.4 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index was little changed.

Markets in Hong Kong and China are yet to open. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.2 percent in their most recent trading session, and contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 0.6 percent. The Hang Seng gauge entered a correction yesterday after extending a decline from a Sept. 3 high to 10 percent.

Russian Ruble
Exports in Japan rose less than economists predicted in November from the previous year, while imports unexpectedly declined. The yen traded at 116.75 per dollar today after jumping yesterday as investors sought a haven amid the ruble’s collapse.

The scope and speed of the ruble’s retreat indicate policy makers are losing control of the situation as a six-month tumble in oil robs President Vladimir Putin of the hard currency he needs to sustain an economy that’s faltering under the weight of international sanctions. The selloff in Moscow is prompting investors to pull money from other developing nations on concern about a global slowdown.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.2 percent today. The underlying equity measure lost 0.9 percent yesterday as declines in technology shares overshadowed gains in oil producers. Russia’s economic crisis won’t stop the Fed from dropping its vow to keep rates low for longer, economists said, even as policy makers may acknowledge global risks have intensified.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Todays pivot has been the main overnight level, but as we have just snuck above it this morning it should act as initial support. Resistance is at yesterdays high at 6351 and the top of the 10 day Bianca, with 6420 above that. For today I have put in an initial rise to the top of the 30minute channel before a drop back down. The bulls need to defend 6212 today as a move below that will likely lead to 6109 where we have the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel. Below that 6035 is the bottom of the 20 day Raff, if its volatile again today then we might even get these levels! However, as you can see from the arrows I am slightly more bullish todays as long at 6212 holds then i think we will get a bullish day. Initial resistance is at the 200ema on the 30min at 6310ish, though the channel resistance at 6321 is probably a better entry to try a short, and is also yesterdays closing price.

30 Comments

  1. Morning all. How is everyone?! I’ve been licking my wounds since last week. Have been a bear for so long and then get caught as a bull the week the FTSE has it’s worse week for 3 years!
    Anyway the volatility this week is proving to be perfect for my strategy. I’ve made 600 points already this week!
    Must stay confident, trade without fear and get back on the horse!
    GL all.

    1. 600points – Well done! I guess that was the turning point, bears became bulls, next turning point is bulls becoming bears…
      I have seen, when you make high reward its also high risk, but that well bounce back for you.

    2. Oh well, if only I could follow my strategy I would have made 718 points just yesterday, according to my paper trades which I followed from start to end yesterday. Unfortunately it doesn’t work in real life. Something else happens when I start trading real money.

      1. Jack 2 you are 100% correct!
        On IG Demo trading account I am almost a millionaire, but in real trading it just doesn’t work….then again, with paper trading, you don’t have the fear emotions etc and able to do bigger positions, hence massive gains, not looking all the time, no heart pounding….as soon as you do even £1 real trading, story is different. Hence you learn most with real money…

  2. FTSE — Looks like a weak lift off ≈ 6150. For interest, 15 mins. system went short @ 6286/09:15, but not much evidence of trend yet.

    1. Jim I tried your signal for fun, got stopped out quickly at 6305, just FYI…don’t worry got it back another trade… 🙂

  3. Morning all, not so great day yesterday for me, overall – 🙁
    Anyway planned my levels overnight, this morning ready to trade 8.00, and managed to go long FTSE@6242 out@6295, as well as a quick small long on DAX…:-)
    Waiting for next positions to enter on side-line….any signals RC?
    Also I wondered, does anyone have guide/advice how to get/create own software package for deriving signals, or a good existing package to use? RC is your for sale 🙂

    1. i think RC is using OT with Money Zone 2.0 plugin and his friend customized some indicators. OT and plugin isnt cheap (at least for me!).

  4. Oil crashing down further, FOMC meeting prospects keeping markets up as hope builds, its going to be a volatile period with US and Russia political battle…GLA

  7. Same old thing for me! Short of 2 @6300. Looking to reduce at 70 but missed by .5! Aim is to get level by 50 and long @30.

  9. Sorry Mali — by 09:43 I should have seen that the index was headed north for a bit — typical! Glad you made up the loss. 😀

  10. S&P’s below 2,000 and Ftse still pushing up. A bit worrying for my shorts. Could see us hitting 6400 today so hope i’m wrong.

  11. as i mentioned a couple days ago – my views are bullish.
    Old members probably remember me and my trading style 🙂

    I have gone long at 6200,6250 (1/5th of my total risk) with a medium term holding view.
    stop loss for both is set to 6225 (B/E).
    I am expecting to see 6700ish before i start thinking of unloading my positions.
    Hoping to build up and have 100% of my risk in before FTSE reaches 6400 (at this point volatility does look quite high, therefore maybe tricky to get the remaining 80% of my money in the market before 6400)

    1. Agree 🙂
      Just waiting for FOMC meeting reaction, and we hit 6400, then on route back up…never predict the market…just follow the flow as I know nothing! GLA

  15. Hi Guys
    Just passing through in this great volatility world.
    PMS – Great videos – could you increase the volume on your mic
    Monz – Great work
    Lawrence – Hats off to you

    Anyone trading through to next week?

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