Support 6231 6230 6184 Resistance 6292 6355

Good morning. Going to send out a shorter (and slightly later) email during this week as the volume is so low and most traders are off this week. Back to normal in the New Year. In trading yesterday the FTSE double bottomed at 6210 and has risen overnight to currently sit at 6270. We have the top of the Bianca 10 day at 6355 so may well see that level today of the bulls can build on this low volume bounce. Support wise, 6232 and 6184 are with longs.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asia’s stocks climbed with European equity-index futures as investors count down to the end of a turbulent year for global markets. Gold advanced with oil.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite Index added 0.9 percent, calming nerves after a late-afternoon rout Monday spooked global markets. Trading volumes across Asia were below the average for the time of day. Crude was higher after retreating more than 3 percent Monday. Gold climbed 0.4 percent as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded near a two-week low. Aluminum led losses on the London Metal Exchange.

“Commodity related sectors continue to be a drag,” said Toshihiko Matsuno, chief strategist at SMBC Friend Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Whenever the weakness in oil regains market attention, it weighs on sentiment. Movement in Chinese shares will continue to have an effect on other markets.”

The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated after tumbling Monday as slumping industrial profits added to concern that looming changes to the country’s listing regime and the expiration of a share-sale ban will hurt demand for its stocks. The global oil glut and weakness in the world’s second-largest economy are driving Bloomberg’s gauge of commodity prices toward its biggest annual drop in seven years, undermining corporate earnings and hindering central banks’ struggle to ignite inflation. Data on U.S. home prices and consumer confidence are due.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 25 percent in 2015, and other asset classes are also set to post declines. The MSCI All-Country World Index, which tracks developed and emerging equity markets, has slumped 3.9 percent, while global bonds have lost 2.4 percent, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index. A measure tracking world currencies fell 2.3 percent.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is heading for its first back-to-back annual loss since 2002 as a deceleration in the region’s biggest economy and the rout in oil and commodity prices undermined earnings. The measure added 0.4 percent by 7:06 a.m. in London,

Futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index increased 0.8 percent, signaling the region’s equities may pare what is looking like their worst December loss since 2002 after an addition in European Central Bank stimulus fell short of investor expectations and energy and commodity producers deepened their losses. FTSE 100 Index futures were flat ahead of London’s first post-Christmas trading.

The number of Hang Seng Index shares changing hands was about 60 percent below the 30-day average for the time of day, while volume in Shanghai was about 40 percent lower, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Hang Seng Index added 0.3 percent and a gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong was little changed after tumbling the most in a month with its Shanghai counterpart on Monday.

Japan’s Topix index advanced 0.9 percent and South Korea’s Kospi was little changed. Gains by Australian banks offset losses by the big miners, Rio Tinto Ltd. and BHP Billiton Ltd., with the S&P/ASX 200 Index rising 1.2 percent as trade resumed after Christmas holidays.

New Zealand’s benchmark stock gauge rose 1.1 percent for a ninth straight advance and a record close. The South Pacific country’s shares are about 13 percent in 2015, a fourth straight annual advance.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures climbed 0.2 percent. The S&P 500 dropped 0.2 percent Monday, after earlier falling as much as 0.8 percent. With just three trading days left in the year, the U.S. benchmark is little changed for 2015. Volume on U.S. exchanges was about 31 percent lower than the three-month average. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

I expect it to be mostly bullish this week, so buying the dips could well be sensible. We have support at the 6230 are that looks worth a long, though I think we will get an initial dip this morning from the 6280 area to that level. If the bulls manage to swing it back up from there then 6355 looks possible today or tomorrow. The daily chart is on the cusp of turning to weak bull with support at 6180, whilst the 2 hour chart needs the bulls to break and hold above 6280 for a push higher. So, fairly short and simple today with a long at the 6230 level, and a short off the 10 day Bianca at 6355 area, which may yield a dip to 6200.

49 Comments

  1. Morning to any diehards out there.
    I’ve dragged myself from my man flu sick bed for something to do, picked up a little rsi long in the 50’s and just took it out, don’t know what to do now really, half expecting it to die down for the rest of the morning with maybe a bull bias.
    The only thing of note to watch for me is the weekly chart. If we close this week at or around 6270 then the downtrend since May would stay intact and shape us up for some more bear action in the New Year, otherwise an attempt on the 6460/80’s high from October seems likely.

  2. Picking tops in a thin market is asking for trouble, but I think it’s getting a little overheated in the 90’s so looking for a suitable short entry around here.

    1. Morning,seems like however you look at it there is a bit of space over the 300 area so might as well wait for 307 or so to be in for the next Long to me too.

        1. Yeah, the way that dip was bought I’m not rushing into anything, just a token so far at 95, stop 310.

          3. You should have been here yesterday morning for the Dax,that would have perked you up better than Lemsip 🙂

    1. That’s looking alright anstel, +50.
      Are you marrying it or planning on taking a profit at some stage? 😉

          2. Bit of a gamble now at Dow open I think it’s heading north but it may well spit its dummy out at open dip and then proceed upwards either way I think it will break 700 tday

          5. Thanks Tmfp I have two other live trades one being that Ftse long I’ve been holding for nearly five weeks,everything nicely in the blue, just a matter of trying to judge how much upside is still available.i think that authentic Dow rally will add to my upside but I dont want to push it too much,a bird in the hand,/ thief in the night time is approaching I think. GL mate.

  5. Brent crude up 0.2% to $36.72 per barrel…..Gold up 0.37% ….Silver up 0.34% and Copper up 1.92% on the comex……….Source ADVFN……….should help the Ftse mining sector I guess and the likes of BP and Shell.

    1. Just doing a bit more research and the miners and BP and Shell have actually declined……. it’s flipping opposite world ?

    1. Yes looks like a poossible double top forming on the 30 chart. Has it got enough to power through the 6300 level. I’m not convinced.

      1. On the other hand, selling appears to be brief and unsustained, despite the DAX losing ~40 we’ve barely dropped.
        That 10800ish should hold though, I guess.

        So, what’s the DOW going to bring us?
        Pretty stuck between 17100 and 18000, I suppose it’ll edge a bit closer to the latter. If it does, we’ll probably look for 07 next.

          1. Not looking very convincing but can’t see many downside fireworks.
            We’re still vaguely hanging onto our up channel since noon and I have in the back of my mind that we’ll get one of those highly authentic DOW rallies before our close.

          4. To be honest Coombsy, now you mention it,I suppose they do have short hair come to think of it.Its amazing what you learn on this site.

  8. Really trying to come up with something for the MHH but struggling. It’s been a quietly good day but I fancy a closing punt, any ideas anyone?

    1. Bizarre as it may sound I’m leaning towards a long in the low 80’s for a closing rally
      In at 84 10 either way

      1. Instant response lol
        stop to b/e limit 95 and maybe a short if it pokes its head over 300 before the close

          1. Doesn’t look like there’s much danger in hanging onto it for a while mate, a bit of downside might develop if it breaks previous low of 80, otherwise they’ll probably have another go at 720 at some point tonight.
            GL.

            Draw yourself a little DOW up trendline on the 1 min starting at 15.42 ignoring the tail at 16.15 and see what happens if/when it breaks. Quite a good way to trail a stop for a long.

          2. Typical, it waits till I finish before the first 10 pt+ 1 minute candle of the day.
            Rather glad I didn’t short at 06 now 🙂
            but tempted at 20….

          5. Complacent markets, thin volume….I know it’s only 40 points on the DOW but that’s not a very good bit of action.
            Anyway, out for 10 and off.
            TTFN

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