Good morning. We got a decent rise from the 6160 level yesterday for the long but banking near 6200 was the right thing to do as it dropped back down to 6130 after that. However, the bulls are persistent and the FTSE has crept up again since. They really do need to hold 6200 today for a rise back to 6300+ next week. I thought we might have seen that level this week, but the spike and dump on Wednesday to 6300 put paid to that. Nice drop on the S&P as well after the 1954 entry which got a few points too. We have a consumer confidence report out at 3pm in the US today, which might help gauge rate rise chances next week. Its still all eye on the Fed really and the 17th Sept to see what rates are going to do.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, paring the regional benchmark measure’s first weekly advance since July. Consumer and industrial shares declined.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.2 percent to 127.17 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. Most of this week’s 1.9 percent gain came on Sept. 9, when stocks in Japan soared in a rally that analysts said was fueled by short-sellers closing bearish bets. Investors are grappling with heightened global equity volatility as they await the Federal Reserve’s decision next week and watch developments in China.
“Markets have been wild and fear is still near its zenith,” said Tim Shirata, Los-Angeles based executive vice president at Guild Investment Management Inc. “Pessimism about China and the world economic outlook is widespread, and optimism about continued economic growth in the U.S. is declining. We hold a lot of cash, and are waiting patiently for opportunities to invest it.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rebounded from a selloff Thursday amid low trading volumes. Federal Reserve officials in recent weeks, while acknowledging a global equity rout that followed China’s currency devaluation, haven’t been willing to rule out a September interest-rate increase. While rate futures traders have pared bets, many economists are still predicting the Fed will increase its key rate.
Japan Volatility
Japan’s Topix index declined 0.8 percent. After the Nikkei 225 Stock Average’s 7.7 percent surge on Sept. 9, short-term price swings in Tokyo are topping those in Shanghai for the first time this year. With the country’s economy struggling to gather momentum after a contraction last quarter, more than a third of economists see the central bank expanding monetary stimulus by next month, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
Eleven of 35 respondents see the Bank of Japan stepping up its easing on Oct. 30, while two forecast a move as early as next week, the Sept. 7-10 survey shows. The central bank last expanded asset purchases in October 2014.
South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.1 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index added 0.2 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong are yet to open.
Singapore’s cash equity market is closed for a holiday as the nation heads to the polls with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s People’s Action Party expected to win re-election.
Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index in Singapore slipped 0.2 percent in most recent trading. Contracts on the Hang Seng Index added 0.3 percent and those on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index advanced 0.7 percent. E-mini futures on the S&P 500 slipped 0.1 percent. [Bloomberg]
FTSE Outlook
I am looking for the 6170 area to hold as support this morning and then a possible rise, and close above 6200. That could then be a decent springboard for a rise further next week. That said, if we do rise past 6200 then we would be nearing the top of the 10 day daily resistance channels once again, 6276 for Bianca and 6306 for the Raff. At the moment my 2 hour chart is bearish, but its weak., while the shorter timeframes – 10 and 30min – are both bullish to start things off today. There is a pretty decent rising channel on the 30min chart as you can see below, this has resistance at 6215and support at 6145ish, so i think these outer extremes are worth a trade today if seen. Apart from that its probably a bit of wait and see Friday, with everyone awaiting clues from the Fed on US interest rates.
W-3 still intact
still holding yesterdays shorts
sleepless night though
hopefully will see sub 6050
Gosh, you involved in this. Sleepless night is tough. I would be lost if I counted waves.
Hi Paul – Yes …Next PRT Line here is 6126 – 6029 -6012
Overhead resistance 6150 -6160
128 again on FTSE
Yes, you mentioned that for a couple of days now Jack, are you giving it a go?
tempted
same here
no rush though, it hasn’t a friend in the world at the mo
doesn’t look good
Nearly clicked long at 20 🙁
Faint heart never won fair lady.
Don’t know as I’d want it 2nd time round though lol
loss on ftse, win on dax. +3 result, crap
Looks like you were saying long at 6145 Nick, what’s the plan now?
Seems weak as p*ss, but still various types of support between 6130 and 6110 to be broken before it’s full on bear time imo.
the longer it does not get to the area for completion of w-3
the US influence is going to take over
s&p “B” wave ideal completion is 1940 that means a leg up
so jack / tmfp – biding time favours your trades
however w-3 has to complete
1.30 / 3.00 screw up period
It’s only a scalp trade.
Virtually every time a recognised area of support/resistance comes up, by default I trade for it to hold first time round. That’s why I use my RSI entry method so, should it not hold, losses are minimized.
After my thoughts yesterday, I have gone to 3min 8 RSI as my preferred entry.
That little double shuffle off 19 was quite healthy for 20-25 upside points, a bit irritated I don’t have the confidence atm.
You cannot ever guess tops/bottoms. Although it bounced 10 points lower of “that” number 128 it doesn’t mean it will go up now just because you really believe in it. It’s just a number.
It does look long now on dax, ftse, that’s how it goes.
should have held my 10088 one and not cashing on +13
1.30 / 3.00 screw up period
1.30 / 3.00 probable
tmfp
i remember you mentioning that you were active at the metal exchange
how did they used to trade? technical / fundamental / or just human emotion
i have often wondered what magical mushroom they use to get a trade?
it was a very different environment around 1970, no zillion $ derivative market or HFT’s.
Technical analysis existed, but I think it’s fair to say was treated with suspicion by London, used sparingly in the USA and widespread in Japan.
As the numbers were smaller, there were more attempts by individual “whales” to temporarily squeeze or corner markets.
Arbitrage was profitable against COMEX (which still had daily up/down limits) and involved balancing three telephones on one’s shoulder.
The large ring dealing company that I spent most time at had one computer, in its own air conned room. It was used for payroll. We drew charts with pencils. Everyone was pissed most of the time, insider trading was rife.
The Good Old Days.
so not much has changed then !
good to know we are all playing to the same rules !!
Love it.
Maybe second time lucky 128?
It’s 61.8% as well (6116)
todays news
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Goldman Sachs think there is an outside chance that oil could fall to $20 a barrel. But the Economist Intelligence Unit is forecasting a small price rise for oil in 2016
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The UK has been put on notice to expect a rate rise around the turn of the year, bringing an end to a long period when rates have been lodged at 0.5%
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As Fast FT points out, Goldman Sachs once predicted that oil prices would touch $200 a barrel by 2010
.. opppps!!
I know most of you prefer more important news…..
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Brooklyn Beckham has been spotted hanging out with a mystery woman of late, and it has now been revealed that the pretty brunette is a French actress named Sonia Ben Ammar. The teenagers, who are both 16, were seen strolling around the streets of Paris last weekend and Sonia has also featured on Brooklyn’s Instagram account
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now thats more like it
🙂 lol
Afternoon all
Haven’t been on here for a while.
Great to read Tmpf’s post about working in the city and his “weak as p!ss quote”. Also good to know what Brooklyn Beckham has been up to.
I’ve just chucked a cheeky at-work trade. 6120 with a target of 6140 (just hit as I typed this).
Have a good weekend all