Support 6098 6090 6083 6067 Resistance 6145 6166 6182 6247

Good morning. The FT100 has been trading in quite a tight range for a few days now (6015-6115) and therefore a break up (or down) is probably due. The last time a break happened was around the 6200 level and the market broke down, but hopefully the reverse will be true this time. As previously mentioned the market can not rally successfully without oil and commodity shares leading the move up – yesterday was the first sign this may be occurring. Oil and commodity shares were the best performers with retail and more “safe” shares taking the back seat. The 6035 long turned out well, as did the 32020 S&P, though there was a better rise after the bell, to test the 6135 resistance area. As some bullishness returns traders don’t want to miss any possible rally so were hopping on. 6090 looks a good long entry today if it dip back and same plan as yesterday to buy the dips.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

  • Australian volumes down about 60% as Christmas approaches
  • Japanese stock markets shut for national holiday Wednesday

Asian stocks rose after a report showed American consumer spending supported growth in the world’s largest economy and gains in crude oil boosted energy shares.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1 percent to 130.61 as of 8:01 a.m. in Hong Kong. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.7 percent, with volume about 60 percent below its 30-day average for the time of day. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.1 percent, with Japanese markets closed for a holiday. Energy and materials shares, this year’s worst performers, led gains.

Climbing oil prices and a rally in U.S. shares laid the groundwork for gains in Asia Wednesday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced for a second day Tuesday as figures showed gross domestic product climbed at a revised 2 percent annualized rate last quarter and West Texas Intermediate rose above $36 a barrel.

“Consumer spending looks like it’s helping the U.S. economy,” James Lindsay, an Auckland-based fund manager at Nikko Asset Management Co., which manages $160 billion globally, said by phone. “Volumes tend to get pretty light at this time of year. Markets have had a reasonable run and value is a lot harder to come by. The key things are still what happens with China, the flow-on effects into commodities and what the Fed does and how that affects sentiment and currencies.”

Household purchases propelled U.S. demand last quarter as employment improved and fuel prices remained low, the latest evidence of the consumer resilience that gave Federal Reserve policy makers confidence that the economy can withstand the first rate increase in almost a decade. Asian equities are on course for the first back-to-back annual losses since 2002 amid concern decelerating Chinese growth will harm the global economy just as the Fed raises borrowing costs.

New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index rose 0.7 percent. Futures contracts on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed 0.1 percent. Markets are yet to open in China.

Futures on the S&P 500 slipped 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge added 0.9 percent Tuesday. The index has fallen 2 percent in December, historically a month when investors reap gains. After rebounding as much as 13 percent from its summer low through early November, the gauge has retreated, leaving it lower by 1 percent in 2015. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

I am thinking a year end around the 6350 area now, with a rise tomorrow peaking about 6250, then a bit more upside between Christmas and New Year before bearishness resumes in January. For today there is decent looking support at the 6090 area, and we also have the daily pivot at 6098. That was a decent rise last night to the 6135 resistance area, so I think we might get a little dip this morning (we are still low volume so its more volatile don’t forget) and then if that support holds a climb to the 6166 area. Above that the next resistance area is 6182, with 6250 above that. If the bears were to break below 6090 then 6000 would likely be on the cards – basically its now or never for the bulls and a possible rally. So, fairly simple plan today, buy the dip to 6090 if it occurs!

47 Comments

  1. Morning.
    Late night was a short too far, stopped out at 6125 on a DOW rally which was apparently due to the lifting of restrictions on US oil exports and a consequent rise in oil prices. Quite how that’s bullish I’m not sure, just more markets to sell it at a loss in, but hey, what do I know.

    Santa rally well underway at last, FTSE only -280 points in December now lol, and knocking on 50% r/t again around here, next target 6220’s for the bulls.
    Weekly chart is interesting, descending trendline intersects the 5900 horizontal support around the end of March if it holds <6250 for January.

      1. Morning tmfp,Oil and N/G are garbage prices,basically WTI is West Texas and Nat Gas is U.S too(seem to remember East Coast).When I was trading NG I had a week when the Russian Pipeline was disrupted and whole countries were living on declining stores,but the “Global” price fell because that was “only” Europe and American supplies were up that week.Basically it is bullish for Oil because it should reduce U.S domestic oversupply.

        1. I should add that NG used to be a v good trade and if I’d been smart I’d have stayed at it and switched to short.All you need to know is every Thurs.
          http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
          Well worth having a look at it.I keep thinking it is stirring again.There were people playing it on the way up who moved to North America to get the leverage opportunities to trade it.That was a while ago though. 🙂

        2. Fair enough, I can see it being being bullish for WTI, but overproduction is overproduction whichever way you slice it.
          I mean they basically only lifted the restriction so that US producers could dump overseas. With a stronger, positive interest rate dollar how is that good, especially with the RMB now not $ pegged?

          1. Good for Oil or U.S mkt’s ? Worth remembering that there are loans due and that this is fund raising season in Exploration and Production,so this will take some threat of default away from Banks.I know someone pushing fuel in Asia and being undercut by Malaysians who claim they have product from the region but which is almost certainly not.It isnt a clean business and the idea that the planet nominally takes it’s energy price baseline from U.S domestic prices is ridiculous,but true.It is just a baseline though.In Asia physical cost + margin is less than 36 for refined product at the moment.How was the Ghost walk? see one?

          2. Yeah it was good thanks. The guy that runs them has strategically placed actors on the route who jump out on cue.
            One woman was reduced to hysteria and demanded her husband take her home. High point of the day.

          3. 🙂 🙂 Nice.I did a Sherlock Holmes walk once,that was a good one,but no actors,almost did a Frankie Fraser Bus tour,but at the last moment I couldnt be bothered 🙂

          5. Thanks,Germany shut tomorrow,so expect they will prompt something more before U.S open.Have a good morning.

    1. Morning Senu,I’m still plugging away behind the scenes,FWIW Im in complete agreement with your thinking for the next two weeks or so,I hope you get positioned to take advantage if it happens, all the best for Xmas and the new year

  3. Morning all, off for Chrimble holidays this afternoon with no internet and limited phone. Got taken out at 6150 this morning for a bit, limit for the rest at 6300 and pulled the stops up to 6080, let the machine do the work. For what it’s worth I reckon we’ll see 5700 before we see 6700 and 2016 year end prediction is 6500.
    Happy Christmas and hope you all have a prosperous New Year.

  4. I would like to wish everyone ……WSF,tmfp,Senu,Nick,Hugh,Dan,Si,chippy,custard,RJ and anyone I may have missed a very merry Xmas and a successful and profitable New Year.

    All the best chaps.

    2. Thanks anstel.
      Good luck for 2016, you dealt with stuff unravelling very well I thought, and hopefully learned a bit in the process.

      1. Thanks tmfp,I held that long from the 6400s added at 5950 and around the 6020 mark,I scalped every time I saw a good opportunity on Dax dow and Ftse to cover the finance,at the moment I’m 47 points up overall on average position and 70 points up on a dow trade.im hopefully going to be back stronger next year,I have learnt a lot from your input over the last six months,I still have areas I can’t decide on but I’m not as impulsive now as I used to be.I think it takes time to control the mental side of trading and this year has really been hard but I think it’s going to have a positive effect on my trading in the future. Have a great Xmas and all the very best.

  5. Morning all

    Pivots out the window already so I’m a bit lost. Can’t really watch the market or take any day trades on the FTSE at the mo, I’m cooking for 11 tonight so I’m running around like a madman trying to sort everything out. Trading is way less stressful!

    Just checking my equities. Sports Direct short is doing well and looks set to break the 555 level. Aberdeen Asset Management short isn’t looking very good, shorting this market ain’t ideal. Long on Trixtax has also dropped off annoyingly.

  7. Just passing by
    Nearly choked on a mince pie !
    6214 – – fresh air now until 6438 – the next PRT line.
    Suppose anything’s possible !

  10. And out. Have no idea where this may go. Dow may open and put on 150 in minutes or it will just drift down a bit. I have no idea at all.

      1. 50 was a real peach of a MHH sell for 10 or so Senu, but I wouldn’t look for much more than that. Everyone’s after buying dips by now.

  16. Afternoon chaps. Well that was fun. Not.
    Got to the 220’s then and a bit more. Great opportunity for the bulls to get some green candles on the chart and everything’s tickety boo.
    Very little selling about, why bother just before the holidays when you know that the bulltards will keep bidding it up into the New year?

    Talking of targets, he may have been a day early, but Nick called 6250 10 hours ago.
    And talking of Nick, a sincere thank you for use of the facilities from all the freeloaders, and a prosperous etc. etc. etc.
    Rod aka tmfp.
    🙂

  17. I second that motion tmfp, “thanks nick” and happy Xmas to you all. Mind you thinking of joining in the new year nick, will email soon.

        1. That’s better mate. this yanks will take it higher this year.. you will get a much better price. GL, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 🙂

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