Good morning. I was a bit early with the SMS to get long yesterday morning but well done those that re-entered on the bounce as it climbed as expected, hitting 6118 at the high. However, the volatility continued after the bell with an overnight drop to 5900 and is now back at 6060! Wild times and not a period to lose you head or risk your shirt. No harm in sitting on the sidelines like this if you are not able to fully focus! With these bounces I am still pretty positive overall, and see dips on shares and indices as good buying opportunities. I don’t think we will see interest rate rises soon, and the latest consensus for the UK rate rises has been pushed back to October 2016. This is quite a good article from Neil Woodford here
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with Japanese shares rebounding from the biggest two-day plunge since 2011, as investors awaited the opening of mainland Chinese markets following Tuesday’s cut in interest rates.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.7 percent to 125.75 as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo, after capping an eighth straight decline Tuesday to enter a bear market. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreated 0.9 percent.
After the Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.6 percent Tuesday to cap a 22 percent, four-day plunge, China’s policy makers cut interest rates for the fifth time since November and lowered the amount of cash banks must set aside. While Chinese equity-index futures surged, with contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index jumping 4.9 percent, exchange-traded funds tracking the nation’s shares almost erased rallies in New York.
“China continues to be key,” Komal Sri-Kumar, the Santa Monica, California-based founder and president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “The authorities have not been intervening, they’ve been allowing stocks to go down in price. Assuming that continues to be the case on Wednesday, I do see a continued fall in prices.”
Japan’s Topix index rose 1.5 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.7 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 0.2 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index added 0.2 percent.
Volume soared and swings on the regional Asia Pacific equity gauge broadened to the widest since March 2011 on Tuesday. The global share rout has wiped more than $8 trillion from investors since China’s unexpected devaluation of the yuan on Aug. 11. [Bloomberg]
FTSE Outlook
Its a wild week for trading thats for sure, though its bounced once again overnight and I think we will see the same again today as yesterday. Yes there is a lot of doom and gloom around, yes there is a weakening backdrop (but its been weak for ages), but equally the market is oversold still, as the daily RSI(10) is still below 30, though risen now to 29 from 15 yesterday and 9 on Monday. So there is a bit of strength around. If the bulls can hold above 6000 then we should see a retest of 6100, and the 200ema at 6112, and then possibly the top of the 10 day Bianca at 6222. We are just testing the top of the 10 day Raff at 6060 so we might well get a dip at around the open, which would take us down to the 25ema on the 30min at 6000 which looks like a decent spot for a long entry, with the bottom of the 20 day Bianca at 5942 below that.
Not getting any clear signals so my plan would be to short any intermediate highs or stay aside.
Any thoughts anyone?
Wants to climb I think, just missed the 20 day support at 5942 earlier
Yeah so did I, bottled it, got on at 70 in the end.
As Nick says, if in doubt, stay out, this is brutal.
I turned everything off last night at 20.00 knackered. It was pretty quiet, FTSE around 6050.
Came back on line this morning 06.15, 6055 on FTSE, thought Oh a quiet night for a change, then saw we’d been down to 5900 and back up again in the meantime!!
Got a little long which I’m debating about dumping now (6004), we are making hard work of clearing this area despite strong DAX
Edit:
cleared it while typing, posting on here makes money! Lol. Will hang on to it for a while stop 5990.
Yeah, I had a pretty eventful night too. Lost about 30% of my account last night on some overconfident trades and made it all back……TWICE!!
Morning Icarus,
Was stopped out this morning @6030 for 40points from my short from yesterday (gutted as it was up 170points overnight) also took 30points on a short on the open, just waiting on the 70-80 area to short again, I think it will close the gap from yesterday, but who knows
Morning Pete. I personally do not keep any positions overnight unless it’s a long term trade
Yea I was planning on keeping it as a bit of a long term but like tmfp said whats a dip! I was looking for 300 points on my long term, but that could be a day trade
Hi tmfp,
If it clears 25 fair chance it will make 70, 25 was support twice yesterday, just my take on it, I think the US will rally a bit this afternoon before the big drop, although its nerve wrecking stuff, yesterday evening it was like a yo yo before it dropped
If you say so Pete lol, I have no idea tbh!
Looks like a buy the dip strategy would work, but define a dip??
20 points?
50?
200?
🙂
Lol 😉
Morning tmfp – when are you putting on your Bear suit again
Ha ha, not thinking of a long unless it breaks yesterdays high just sitting on my hands at min, kind of glad to take a break
gone long 5990
Stop at 5975
the downtrend has changed to an uptrend
expecting a move to and above 6090 as per charts
Morning All,
Tryin’ something new today..
It’s very short time span (Mins) and small (20 Points) L or S .
Clear entries –
Will run with it for a bit and let you know how it goes…!
Also want to see if this link works.
Printed from IT Charts.
To Firefox – – email link – this is what it comes up with
http://tc.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime/display_chartimage.phtml?name=dc89ikjow01307foq20q9xm5r&type=png&purpose=file
Useful if it works
10:12 FTSE 88/89
Next Signal Come Up
L on break above 5997.5
L Tgt min 6007.5 – Stop 5984.5
FTSE 6009/10
Waiting to go S
Preposed S 6003
This maybe revised on the next 5 min candle
Entry Moved
Preposed entry S – 6007.5
& Again
Preposed entry 6016.5
I got a bullish divergence signal at the lows on Monday. That signals q corrective rally. And if my wave counting is right, it ended with a 3rd wave failure and yesterdays high. Only getting bearish signals now so atm I think retest of Monday’s lows. that was my reason for the Dow short yesterday.If it breaks yesterdays highthen yes the short term bias could be towards longs with a peak around 6400 on ftse(if it has legs)
Good – I hate being on my own whilst everyone else thinks different
so is this the end of volatility
have we found the new norm
or is this the calm before the storm?
Hi Icarus,
Your following Elliots wave, I have been looking at it over the past few days, not sure what to make of it through, does anybody else give it any relevance, its predicting the 5500 area as the next leg, if yesterdays high is not broken
we are on on wave5 which started yest low at 9pm close
mon low to mon high at 6pm wave 1
w-2 to low at 8.30 mon
w-3 to high yest
corrective wave to yest low
w-5 longest wave so expect to break yest high
That failed rally on the Dow yesterday is huge in my eyes. We have not hit a bottom. Good that everyone has different views to consider
Paul, I use Elliot waves only to get a sense of where the market is. I use it in conjunction with divergences and support/ resistance levels. Elliot wave like other indicators will give you the answers you want to hear based on the timeframe you are looking at. Look at the 5min and its favoring shorts. Look at 1 hr its signalling wave 2 of correction.
as such
The market is in a downtrend and I would rather short 6400 than go long now. I see q meaningful bottom around 5740
Atm I am standing aside and holding onto my money
As tmfp says, looking for a better risk/ reward ratio 🙂
whichever way you look at it yesterdays low at 9.pm is key
either we are in wave 5 higher or wave 3 higher
obviously w-3 will lead to a move well above 6200
i have a stop at 75 on a 90 long
will let you know if we are on w-5 or w3 in due course
ps dow is on w-3
China Chart still looks knackered to me …
Totally agree; China A50 4hrs is back down close to min; ROC has barely recovered to zero and looks likely to reverse; my Heikin-Ashi indicator in this timeframe says sell; a further drop of 500-1000 pts looks probable. Most worrying, PBC seems unable to get a grip.
added to my long 6000 seperate stop at 80
if the move continues as expected will keep on adding every 20 points or so may be 25
hopefully will turn out to be a W3
breakout at 24will confirm – will add at 25
looking atleast 6100 so still W5 but lets see can only be w3
added at 25 next will wait till 50 to add
mba mortgage figures at 12, so looks like we going to 6050 on that news
put my 4th added order to buy again at 40 rater than 50
durable goods at 1.30 so we could get to 6100 by then
possibe this is only a w-3 which means 6200
gone in at 40 with my 4th long
Stack them up Paul… looks good for the 200ema 30min at 6100
dow breakout at just over 16200 which it should do
reckon that points that more to this being w-3
Joined you on that long Paul
I’m expecting 80 Paul but just not with your confidence
Got an RSI Trio S Here 45 – 46 although 6065 would seem a better entry point
Hi hugh,
Are you getting Sell signals on the DOW as well? Don’t know if i’m brave enough for that at the moment!
Hi – I don’t trade on DOW at all – FTSE is enough for me to decipher !
Fair enough mate, took a good profit on the CAC last few days using your TRIO (unedited).
You still going short at 65ish?
Yes Short – 65
Got to nip out ..!
Tgt Price 6040
Stop placed at 75….
Just looks toppy, both ftse and dow. Need a clean break to favour longs. Still favoring shorts
nick
reckon so
Drop off 6069 double top, then another try for 6100 I am thinking
nick
are you in this?
yep
the short at 69 or long?
Shorted 6068, just closed though
if it gets to below 35 then wave is not correct
moved all stops to 30
but will buy again at 70
I would just cash in now.
6070 some kind of level, may pull back a bit
Was the double top with todays earlier high
I do play low volume but this is way too low!
Any thoughts daddy bear? 🙂
I’m going to be looking for a pull back to around 45 then going long again I think
missed the entry by a few points… ahh well
Still here ..but really need to go out !
I think that was a “fail” at 6061 area – need to see 6048 to break …
That’s the plan…anyhow …
Really going to try and leave now ….LoL
Back now – closed at 55 where the trend line break occurred & pleased I did – looks like we’re heading >6090 area
jack
hoping to see 6100 – 6200
or my stop at 30
so risk the wave
Well, if SL is 30 then maybe, if 47 holds then it won’t get to 30.
without risk nothing gains, agree.
I think a significant break (10-15 points) either side of 6055 will signal the theme for the next hour or so, otherwise we might just be coasting to DOW open.
Just my thoughts anyway
Afternoon all, was having a think yesterday and have a lunchtime question for you all. I’ve read and heard winning spread bettors use the strategy of adding to winning positions but at what point would you implement this. Are there any cues that one looks for when deciding to add to the position? Answers on a postcard…. Or here please.
many different techniqes
but i favour breakout, simple basis
Long now 6055
does it need more fuel from 35 area?
And out 6094
Short 60. 10 pt stop
Third time lucky?
Afternoon all,
Thank-you to Nick again for another great overview.
Reading the thread that I don’t think there will be any significant moves until China has given some solid news. Cheap money hasn’t worked, so I think it could be pretty range bound for the rest of the week. Keeping an eye on any major news coming out though will give a hint of any move sooner.
To Coombsy, I would say that is a high risk strategy, I haven’t personally seen that anywhere. Volatile times like this I take as much risk out as I can. As I’m sure many do. I’m not one for talking profits, but my strategy this week is move on the bottom and tops only. It is frustrating playing the waiting game but gives more time for analysis and has worked for me this week only having one losing trade of a very small margin. So far since Monday, I can say I have cleared an average monthly 9-5 wage. Moving on the bounces and only putting in 3-5 trades a day, almost guarantees a sizeable return for me.
But I am no pro, so please don’t take what I do as any kind of pro info! Just a fellow trader sharing my winning strategy this week!
Regards,
John
jack
adding to a winning trade is very difficult. it took me 2 years to get round it.
think about it this way – for it to go higher – it has to break the last high and so forth. so you add at the breakout area. easily seen and if correct it is 100% correct.
adding on a retracement – is difficult as you dont know where it is and also it actually denotes a failure till it has broken last high.
easy said. difficult to acheive
ah, okay, so where I am place my trades a the bottom or top, when it breaks out I add to my original trade. I do do this on occasions, but like I said, I try to minimise my risk completely. But thank-you, potential to increase profits.
Agreed though, easier said than done!
Turns out yes! closed. Will see what Dow brings. Still feel it looks toppy
well thats me in at 6070 – now moved all stops to 35 and looking for this wave to take us to 6100 & possibly higher on w3
moved all stop to 50
durable orders in 2 mins
push to 6100 or down to 35?
i favour 100
Long at 63 looking for 30 points before taking half and seeing what happens with the rest.
Closed that 6055 long at 6094
I did the same at 93 mate, getting a bit choppy for me now
US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul): 2.0% (est -0.4%; prev rev 4.1%)
-Durables Ex-Transportation (MoM) (Jul): 0.6% (est 0.3%; prev rev 1.0%)
After the rises start the news flow changes from negative to positive…. is this the first one to start 2 weeks worth of more positive news. 17250 Dow/6500 FTSE/10500 Dax coming?
nick
you chicken
but you are probably right
LOL, happy to be a wimp if i can bank 40
yep
i’ll probably be holding my tail between my legs
but got my insurance policy at 50
but still have a breakout order at 6099
which should get hit
I’ll be buying any pullbacks now I think
Long at 75, stop moved to b/e, will be out until dow open then
closed at 90, that’ll do for now I think
still waiting with my order at 6099 for going long
but have move my stop to 6055 market could do a move down to 65
dow up 2% so could have a leg down
shit
you adding to your long at 65ish mate or just waiting to see if you get stopped out?
out at 58 on lots
good but not as clever as nick & whoppsie
never mind ..he says holding his tail
Still good though. Might bounce here at 6040?
You’ve had some great calls today Paul mate, how many points you up for the day? your first was at 6000 wasn’t it? with 3 more up to 50, must’ve cleaned up even if you were out at 58.
Mine’s primarily hit and hope at the moment ha!
I don’t really understand why you didn’t come out at 14.30 before US? This is the time when normally people trying to cut out on their positions as reversals happen and other stuff which happened the other day. Correct exits are also important.
icarus
it was a wave 5 – most probably
now a a-b-c
looks like a b starting
Good calls on the waves Paul. I can never work out what wave we are in!
yes i know
it was made easier by the deep low that formed
all cycles could be reset
not sure whether you remember RC , he gave me some help with this
I remember RC yes
do you know where he is?
are you in contact with him at the subscription site, not seen him here
No I am afraid not. Not a member either that I am aware of
this corrective b could get as high as 6068 and fail
but ideally should start c at below 52
and end before 5982
Gutted I closed my 85 short for +5, ah well thats the way it goes, short again 43 but looks like it will take me out b/e
jack
trading is random, until you can put a pattern to it
unfortunately this is not written in stone
sorry – does anyone know what the divi is today. Dont want to do what I did last time!
1.5
1.37 sorry
many thanks – i’ll pay that
nick
if 35 holds a-b-c complete
then we on 1 which should take us above 65
breakout long waiting at 6035
target 65
if price below 5962 then reset count
otherwise 35 breakout still valid
5982 not 62
Am on it 🙂 Nice rising 30min PRT lien there too – http://tc.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime/display_chartimage.phtml?name=2l0fku3h9657l7x6cz7zobr0y&type=png
minuette breakout 6004
in long stop 72
will move stop to just below 82 when price above 6010
always risky trading this wave cycle
however 6010 breakout should be ok
gave up the ghost! collected the divi and out at 5995
blown away
who fancy’s the Dow being down by COB today?
a tempting thought
seems like yesterday – a bit weak
looks likely!
Good calls paul. been away in meetings most day. If 850 holds I think we go up from here. Need a wee bit lower to go long.
out of interest, which timeframe are you using for wave counts.
Got there pretty quickly
find it difficult with small timeframes
as really using one is trying to pick bottoms & tops
dont go below 5 mins – better with 10 / 15
but allow cycle to start and show otherwise you will
not know the cycle
wish RC was here, he was bloody good at it, not
sure if you have heard of him
Paul – Indeed RCs calls were excellent. Kept in touch with him for a while. His software was working well so I think it was just a case of following it as much as possible. It was Nirvana Systems OmniTrader – and the plugin was called MoneyZone. Link Here
http://www.omnitrader.com/index.aspx
Sounded like a great bit of s/w but you had to put the money up for the s/w and also the feed for it and also tweek it a little bit which is what RC had done.
He probably still comes on here now & again ..come on RC – let us know how you’re doing !
Double bottom now with 8am
Finally went long at 820 and closed at 890. Another long at 901 running at be
Paul, yes have heard of RC. I was around a few years back when he used to comment here
Really not sure if I should let the profits go. Hold or sold!
Added at 81
Taken quarter of second long. Stop at be
urns out whIle I was posting here, the second long got closed at be
Added 66
Okay now its getting scary
Quico poll guys, should I hold or should I close…Amy views…
honest question
Anyone around?
Icarus – what are you on ?
OK Dax I think – Just follow your stops up…
RSI Trio Here as well but don’t normally do it on the DAX 16176-78
Ooops quoted DJI there – mean’t the DAX but they’re all rsi trios FTSE DJI DAX
Thanks Hugh
Stops at 16001
Stop at 16101
16135 way key for me that has been broken successfully. So hoping this will be THE TRADE
was this a resistance level?
btw thanks for explanation on gaps the other day
Milka, yes it was a resistance level
Hugh I think a strong close would invalidate the bearish signals
Closed quarter at 190. Holding fairly large position overnight
Icarus do u think its worth buying tonight and holding.
Milka, if I were you, I would wait for a pull back
Hope the Chinese start buying stock
16369 would seem fairly key resistance.
Is it really worth holding over night ??
Hugh I get the resistance at 380 but it’s close, I think as Nick said, we would start to hear some positive news. Risking some profit for a more? Definitely.
I feel a real idiot (this is not sympathy but a cathartic rant ). After losing a bit 2 weeks ago I stopped. On thursday I guessed it would drop Friday but closed my shorts and made nothing, due to lack of courage. I screwed up buying low overnight on Sunday and lost £4! I spent all day trying to buy low on the dow, and closed out a 15800, and 16050 at next to nothing before losing on a 16950 short and then holding a 16195 to 16274 to ultimately make £12. I expected a rise today as the china drop was too low, and there was nothing to make it drop further but wasn’t able to hold my positions.
Ultimately I realise I have no clue. Yes falling knives stay out of it, but I still feel I missed out when you guys seem to make money.
Feel exactly the same milka.
From time to time I seem to go through phases where I change nothing but every trade I make seems to send things in the wrong direction and I find myself stumbling along behind the bandwagon throwing money at it.
Biggest thing I’ve learnt is never trade out of anger, if you’ve lost a bit, look at why, don’t go chasing to get it back somewhere else. And if everything seems to be going wrong, maybe it is, leave it for a few days and come back.
I think it was Nathan Michaud on his tweeter feed talks about him and the markets getting annoyed with each other and a long weekend being best for the relationship. Easy to say when you’re clearing 5 figures a day though I guess.
Guys – IMO These markets are challenging at the moment. They are unpredictable in both directions. The amount of time that you need to spend understanding “the moves” – make them – time consuming. It’s not easy.
I did 7 trades today – 1 B/e – 2 Losers – and 4 Gainers but small. Was it worth it? Only just and when I consider the amount of time spent and the agro .
I’d Buy – it would Go Lower –
I’d Sell it – it would go Higher (Long would be in profit)
I’d Buy it – it would head lower.
Get the picture ! Finally Sell the bounces. Finally worked.
I trade off the charts
Put the Fibs up on a range and look at going in at 61/78 S or 23/38 L
– i.e. I put the orders in on the chart – just leave the line (i.e don’t complete the order) and see how you go until you get a feel for the moves.
It does require some patience – as you may not get filled.
But what’s more important is that you get a better feel for the moves rather than the bias that your the last trade entry can have…
Just my two pence worth…
Also – Always worth going through the day’s action.
If you move chart back – to the open and just scroll through with the right arrow – you can recreate the market move as it happened.
Just an idea..
I’m having a little luck with your trio system atm hugh, although tracking back through my alerts from the past week or so I am seeing a rather incredible coincidence occuring.
RSI Trio alerts that pop up before 12pm have so far been twice as likely to indicate the correct direction over the next 30minutes
I am 100% convinced that it is just coincidence as I said but I thought it was interesting.
Happy trading folks
Milks and ftsewhoopie, I feel your pain. Last two days were extremely disapponting. I was short both days and missed huge drops at the close. Do I regret it? No. There is always another day. Markets will always be there, make sure you are around to trade them! Trade safe
The RSI Trio entries are good ..sometimes it’s just a good place to start having a look …contra trend trades.
What I found the best thing to do is to tuck your entry a the top or bottom of the last but one candle & then be aware of the flags. ( Like we had today..)
What do you use ? …Do you have a set of rule based entries ?
I think I’m going to put some together on a chart and post here…
It’s always surprises me how hard it is to follow a set of rules though !
Hugh, I use divergences to enter trades near support and resistance lines. A bit of Elliot wave counting is also something I look at. Reason for entry today was bullish divergence on 5 min combined with hidden bullish divergence on 30 min.
I have seen that when the macd aligns across all the timeframes, you get pretty powerful signals
I am planning to post a note on my blog on divergences and will share with everyone once I have it ready
Recently I had called a similar trade, on DOW it went onto make new intermediate highs. The intensity on this move is similar so I am holding in hope of 17000
Icarus – I look forward to it.
Even just using a MA 30 on 5 mins is good (Trend Trading). Let it close above or below – then enter on the break higher or lower of that first bar – 2nd part of the trade is to enter on the touch of the MA.
Repeat in either direction.
If you’ve got contra trade indicators / oscillators up – they’ll likely uncertain about the entry. TMI
Sorry I should have said 16570. Break of that would signal 17000
What I have also noticed recently is that I get the best signals at three times, before market open, at close and midday
Cheers Hugh. One thing I am not linking at the moment is that that Ema on 4hr is at the price
China should go to 10100 before more downside, so that will hopefully bring some upside overnight
Icarus, Hugh & ftsewhoopsie thanks for the replies. The problem I have is I don’t even know where you guys get your resistances and supports, eg on the dow u guys mention 16135 and 16369. I cannot find them on any of the charts on investing.com or other places.
Indicators like Wallace and gromit and tmfp’s rsi 10 20/80 gave me some ideas but don’t seem to work for me or I am missing something. I was using Bollinger and macd’s 5/10/20 sma’s and Elliot waves at one point. But guess what I forgot how to use them!
I made a lot on this greek crisis buying at the bottom or 200 points off and waiting and waiting but last few weeks have been a mess. I lost, got depressed stayed out and don’t know where to begin again.
Yes I know I’m feeling sorry for myself but my real fear is after teaching myself about the markets I will never get it. I get the feeling u guys, seem to be able tell when to get out and do so at b/e or a few points profit, whereas I either close out too soon and miss out or hold a loser too long.
Are you trading China Milka ? Some sleep always helps !
http://td.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime/display_chartimage.phtml?name=7vwmjbyl814iq43bvwghgno6g&type=png&purpose=file
Try this – it’s a Renko chart – 2 Box
Let’s Trade …..
30 MA on 5 Mins
1st Trade Short
http://td.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime/display_chartimage.phtml?name=svhlgakwl07tvcib0hyv344n2&type=png&purpose=file
S 6078
Rules Long or Short on close above or below MA & again on touch of the MA.
Repeat.
Noooooo…..Why am I biased to longs today 🙂
I am getting an intraday golden cross on dow
2nd Trade
S at 30 MA 6584
6584 or 6084?
Sorry Icarus ..6084
Brakes 30 MA –
Order set to go L just above blue candle – 6100
http://td.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime/display_chartimage.phtml?name=955pjm9bk9oeko0ol2zr7ncuj&type=png&purpose=file
L on the break 6100
http://td.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime/display_chartimage.phtml?name=wa04x32hy6j6r4rqomz98anmi&type=png&purpose=file
6050 would be reasonable
Anyone know where
Technology Mentor Fellowship Program is ?
Only 16 comments and it’s 11:20