Good morning, well yesterday worked out exceedingly well didn’t it with the drop to 6565 then long. I am still running this long and have held overnight, the stop was moved to 6575, but I have now brought that up to 6582 – just below yesterdays close in case the FTSE goes for the gap, and below today’s pivot at 6584. With the price now above 6605 I think we should be on for the 6640/50 area as per the trade target. If possible keep taking profit as the trade goes for you. New Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks today so should set the tone for her tenure – in fact her speech today could have a fairly bullish effect (here’s hoping anyway!). we do appear to have a slight bullish breakout going on the daily chart, with prices getting above the 20 day Bianca channel (6597), but with the 10 day channel top at 6630, our long does still look good. I am expecting today to be bullish but then that to start waning and a bearish end of the week.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
A gauge of Asian stocks outside Japan rose, heading for its biggest advance since November, before Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen delivers her first testimony on monetary policy.
The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index advanced 1.1 percent to 449.36 as of 1:30 p.m. in Hong Kong. The regional gauge has climbed 3.3 percent from a five-month low on Feb. 5 as equities rebounded from a global rout. Yellen will speak on monetary policy and the outlook for the economy today for the first time since being sworn in as the central bank’s head. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday.
“With U.S. employment data materially deteriorating, there is a building argument that the Fed should ease off tightening monetary conditions,” Gary Dugan, who helps oversee about $53 billion as Singapore-based chief investment officer in Asia and the Middle East for Coutts & Co., the wealth management unit of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, wrote in an e-mail yesterday. “We suspect that Yellen would not want to significantly change policy at her first meeting in March.”
The gauge of Asia-Pacific equities outside Japan dropped 5.2 percent in January for its worst start to a year since 2010 amid concern about the Fed’s stimulus cuts, China’s slowdown and volatility in developing markets. Global equity losses in 2014 peaked at $3 trillion on Feb. 4 and have since narrowed to $1.4 trillion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
S&P Futures
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.3 percent today. The equity benchmark rose 0.2 percent yesterday, extending gains for a third day, amid optimism that economic growth is robust enough to weather central bank stimulus cuts.
Fed Stimulus
The Fed has already decided to slow the pace of its asset-purchase program twice, reducing its monthly buying of bonds to $65 billion from $85 billion. A Feb. 7 report from the Labor Department showed that payrolls rose by a less-than-projected 113,000 in January, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in more than five years.
FTSE Outlook
Well the long from yesterday is still running and looking good, though I think the 6633 top of the 10 day Bianca area could create a bit of a wall; after that the 6650 area is more major resistance. Should those break then 6700 is likely to be reached, but as mentioned above I don’t think the bull will continue for long, in fact I think the end of this week might see some more major bearishness. While the FTSE holds above 6597 then those upside targets are viable, however if the bears start today then a break below that leads to 6546 then 6500. I think a bigger better short is 6730 – top of the 10 day Raff channel and could be on for a 500 point drop. If it reaches this level I will short on a futures contract.
I have plotted a dip to the 6597 area then another bounce. I went for the dip as we are just hitting that ProTrend line on the 30 minute channel. Obviously with my long still running I am hoping it just keeps rising though!
I think an initial rise to 6630, then a dip to 6605 then further rises. 6630, is a decent looking 10 minute channel top.
ftse seems quite bullish so far could top 6700. cant get a decent entry point.
Short from 6658 tight stop
ditto here as well
Hopefully looking for a dip towards 6645ish so i can go long but we’ll see
Nick, would be interested to know your reasoning as to why you think the FTSE will go bearish later this week?
Nick, in relation to David’s Q, why do u think we could be in for a 500 point drop? Thanks.
Just to clarify, I think bearish turn towards the end of the week then down to 6200 over the next couple of months, not 6200 on Friday! Just a hunch really…
US índices emas crossover for 1st time since the break down early in the Year
I agree with the move back down and the emas crossover. 6603 is where I had a possible failure level to the upside. Also we’ve come up on nothing so see no reason why we don’t dip again. If it breaks 6597 in the cash this week I agree a move to below 6300 is on the cards.
A close above 16040 DOW will go for all time highs
*16050. I think we are going for 17000 in the next week
I say that, because I feel we will have another short squeeze.
A lot of people not trusting is this upside move
17000 next week???!!!..lol…whatever you on, I want some!!…lol
Maybe I will miss for 1-2 weeks the most, but that is where now the markets will go.
I was long yesterday just above the pivot point at 6565 but got out this morning at 6640 and have gone short at 6645 and 6652 with a stop just above today’s high. Not saying I’m right but we’ve had a 250 point up move on the last 4 days and it looks a bit frothy up here!
Never take the amount of points in one direction as a urge for action. It’s had 250 but can easily do another 250. Never guess the tops.
Dow had 500 points, what’s your point, to short now?
You’re right Jack, never guess the top. I just feel this has been a relief rally after the start of the years sell off and the 61.8 retrace of that move is this 6560 level which seems a plausible entry to go short. Plus I feel a lot of this bullishness is the thought that tapering will be put on hold which is a mechanic in motion and won’t change.
I love Fibs too. They are great. But sometimes it shoots to the top again.
I agree. To be honest Jack, the charts look a toppy and I feel if 6597 breaks this week we will back where we were last Monday.
Graeme, why do u think a move to below 6300 is on the cards? Thanks.
long from 6642 lets see if it holds
Looks like 6645 is holding, you guys could be right
Also 16000 on the DOW looks like a good short, yesterdays long into today paid off, should see some more upside when US comes online will take DOW 15900+ easy imo.
quite possible 🙂
Let’s hope it does…
what time is the dividend paid today?
what is todays dividend and where is the best place to find it as i forgot the code you put in on ig to get it
i know its about 11 points
thanks alot can you direct me to where i can find out myself in the future
11.2 to be exact
If you search google for “REUTERS MARKETS BRITAIN STOCKS EX DIV”, on Monday or Tuesday you will find the page that details it.
thank you nick
pump and dump may be? Too early to say, lets wait for DOW.
Doesn’t look extremely bullish at the moment. Maybe retrace to certain levels?
Looking at my charts we’ll see through 6597 today, countertrend tuesday so I think you’re right, pump & dump.
Still thinking pump and dump ??
Yes a lot of same thinking, but not me
yep….feel we have seen the top today…….im short at 45 and 52
US now retraced. I am awiting market direction before re-entering, likely to go higher
short @6660 with tight stop?
not really 🙂 here comes 6700!
Bullish close at 6670… Above the key resistance levels… Surely indicates further rises to come?
probably, as nick said, raise to 6730.
Gone long. Missed 100 points selling on fri night
EMAS Crossover today, since start of the year is 1 st time + short squeeze coming + Lot of analysts looking to short this levels and above.
It must be said, Nick called the market/direction perfectly today. That was some forecast this morning!
Long victory today. Didn’t expect that. No losses today.
Buy, buy, buy until around end of Feb, then decline to Nick’s 6200ish level by 17ish March, then buy, buy, buy again.
End Feb – 6900
17ish March – 6250
Mid May – 7100+
My thoughts. I cannot see why people would be looking to short now, we are clearly heading up.
Have been long for a while now and will continue to be until end Feb ish 🙂
Gl all
PS: absolutely excellent prediction Nick 😉
… STOP PRESS …. Jaet Yellen confirms that tapering will continue at its current rate … stocks rise as a result .. you couldnt make it up if you tried 🙂
Called 16000, banked 160 pips
Well I’m easy either way, dax long with average of 9175 still running, have orders to add more post 500 and 600 but 200 points already locked so whatever. Bring it on.
Just added to my long.
im beginning to look for shorts now (accidentally posted this on yesterdays page lol).
Lol, your indicator showing a lot of bearish ?
not at all right now, showing strong bulls, but ive missed the uptrend now..closed long out at 6600, lost balls to hold it.
Just gone short on Dow and sp500 at 1919 and 16000
Can anyone advise me please? I’m long from 6515 with a stop at entry. Would u raise the stop? Take profit? Or let it run up even further? I’m new to this so PLEASE HELP!!!
Phil, it’s your choice at the end of the day, but me personally would raise the stop to make sure you book a profit.
It all depends if you are day trading or on the long term.
Intraday I would book my profit now, long term raise the stop and wait it out a bit more.
Hope this helps
Another thing – don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
Try and work out your max amount of trade, see if your equity can handle a 200 point move in the opposite direction, then devide that amount into smaller amounts and place your trades in ascending or descending order.
On the day trades, try and close before the end of the day. Closing a loss doesn’t necessarily mean you close a loss for the day as your average May be higher.
I hope this makes sense…Lol
That’s how I trade, but it’s how you feel comfortable.
Coincidence DAX, ftse and DOW all close to their respective 100 point mark
PMS how you got to your conclusion that this rally would be the start of new highs is laughable. We met new highs a month ago and it is the beginning of the year with another 10 months to go. Ridiculous!
New highs till end of February. 17000 print.
Go short now, feed me.
For once I agree and disagree with Ahwab.
We need to see new highs first, before a decent drop again…
Ridiculous for you. Awesome for me. You had to see at 16:00 today the emas crossover on 4 hourly chart and the quick upside follow. I never missed that monthly cross.
Cautiously bullish atm. Agree with Hashmash. Well done Nick
Agree, I think bulls had its time now it’s bears turn!
I’m looking to 17000 till end of February, even so the last moves were not more than 1500 points.
\I will monitoring how the sentiment is at 16700-16800.
But for now like to see a lot of shorting
just FYI, i mentioned above, im not expecting markets to fall..and my indicator is currently showing bulls, the reason im waitign for market to turn bearish is because ive lost the uptrend (closed long out at 6600 – lost my balls to hold it)..
so i might wait it out, unless i see major upside to go long
if we see around 6600ish again, i will definelty long a large amount
We’ve had a decent pull back now which was healthy. This is the start of the next push up for spring. There is plenty of points available above us yet. Not sure why people think they have missed this move. I have missed 100 points due to fear and have jumped back in and I am still long.
Lol, exactly. People seem to speculate forever when the upside is coming, then when they finally convince themselves, it’s time to go short again 😀
Gotta lev the market 🙂
Everyone screaming long on this forum… often a sign to go short lol
Agree white only 2 weeks ago people screaming short went long on dax and ftse but cut too my profit short by closing then got stuff today big loss today not being disciplined.
Also forgot to add most people on here have forgot why the markets went down in the 1st place with emerging markets that problem is far from gone yet and will show its face again very soon.
IMO emerging markets chatter was an excuse to sell off. See how quickly it has come back. Just my opinion and I am long. GLA
Thank god for that small sell off on DJ at end. I was about 120 points down with a short but managed to sell 1 min before 9 for 5 points profit!!
Thanks for the advice Havies. I’m hoping to see this thru to around 6800. Where would u place the stop to book a profit but not to close so I don’t get stopped out? And how high do u see the FTSE going in the next week or 2? Many thanks.
Keep averaging 50%, so adjust daily. My entry points for short will start around 6800 on FTSE, hoping to see 6900, but that’s a long shot ATM.
Will then short to around 6300 and wait for the swing upside again.
Remember have confidence in your trade and have a strategy and keep to it…
I sold off myself at 6560 area, around 3 stocks and ftse.
Long on dow since 15800.
But waiting now for a 6750-6800, before several positions of shorts.
Do you think Dow will continue to rise tomorrow or do you see a drop back down ?
I think that a bit of a small pull back or consolidation today but the dips will be bought as worry for missing the dip kicks in.
Really small. I closed my shorts b/e yesterday. And today in the morning, didn’t kick in.
Havies
I agree with you. I do think we will see 6900, maybe even 7000 by April. However I know Nick is expecting a sell off to 6200 shortly.
Gosh, I am getting already fed up with this long.
Jack I am loving mine! A slow grind up better than a swift snap back!
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