Rise to 6782 today?

Good morning, bull Tuesday came good once again, not really dipping as far as I would have liked for the long entry! The short from 6749 worked out well for a few points in the morning then prices bounce back and walled around 6750 for most of the afternoon. The trends are still up looking at the daily charts with the likelihood of the FTSE reaching 6782 more likely. I think we have a bit further to go higher before we dip. A few blogs and sentiment things are turning bearish so I think the market will want to squeeze these early bears before it drops. Good news on the UK economy front though saw the comply expand 0.8% in Q1 of 2014; not so good for twitter last night as their loss widens, shares falling 10% after hours.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as investors weighed corporate earnings before the Federal Reserve decides on U.S. monetary policy. The Bank of Japan refrained from expanding stimulus.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed at 137.42 as of 1:06 p.m. in Tokyo, erasing an earlier gain of 0.4 percent. The measure is heading for a 0.4 percent loss this month amid concern over escalating tensions in Ukraine and a deepening economic slowdown in China. The BOJ stuck with targeting an annual increase in the monetary base of between 60 trillion yen and 70 trillion yen ($683 billion) in a decision released today. Fed policy makers are expected to reduce bond buying for a fourth straight month today.

“We don’t expect much from the two central banks as nothing much has changed since the last meetings,” Keith Poore, who helps manage $131 billion as Wellington-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., said by phone before the BOJ announcement. “While earnings have been good, Asian investors are waiting to see a bit more recovery in China before optimism can return.”

China Manufacturing
A government report due tomorrow is expected to show China’s manufacturing activity continued to pick up in April. Data today showed Japan’s industrial output grew less than forecast in March, while factory output growth in South Korea missed analysts’ estimates. Companies from Nomura Holdings Inc. to Japan Airlines Co. release earnings today.

Taiwan’s Taiex index lost 0.8 percent as the nation’s economy expanded 3.04 percent in the first quarter, in line with economists’ estimates. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated 1.2 percent after yesterday jumping by most in three weeks. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland stocks traded in the city dropped 1 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite was little changed.

Japan’s Topix index rose 0.1 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index jumped 1.1 percent.Singapore’s Straits Times Index (FSSTI) gained 0.7 percent, heading for its third monthly advance, as lenders led the market higher. DBS Group Holdings Ltd. rose 0.9 percent to S$16.99 after Southeast Asia’s biggest bank posted an unexpected increase in first-quarter profit.

Relative Value
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded at 12.6 times estimated earnings yesterday, compared with 16 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

S&P Futures
Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent today. The U.S. equity benchmark index climbed 0.5 percent yesterday as results from Merck & Co. to Sprint topped estimates.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Interesting day yesterday that didn’t really feel like it did much really, though the short worked out well off the Bianca 20 day at 6748 area. As such I think we might test that channel again today and a short from 6779 will bear fruit. The pivot for today is 6746 which is pretty much were we are as I write this, and if the uptrend is to continue could/should(!) act as support, at least initially.

We also have a 30 minute channel in play with support at 6738 so after an initial bounce before the open from the pivot i think a decline to that area is possible, before a climb to that 6780 area, which could present a decent shorting spot. The key will be breaking yesterdays high at 6762 though.

If 6780 area breaks then the next resistance is 6810 and 6830 (top of the Raffs), with a move below 6582 invalidating the uptrend. One thing to note is that we are currently at the top of the 50 day Bianca channel and appear to be trying to break out of that longer term trend – I don’t tend to use the 50 day that much, as the levels are often exceeded for a while before snapping back; which would fit in with my hunch of a climb to slightly higher than were we are now, before a drop.

143 Comments

  1. Hi Nick .. Just closed my quick long and gone on your tip with a short at 6777.

    Surely this must run out of steam soon .

  7. ftse is determined to have another crack at 6780 this morning! inflation beating by 0.1% coudl just do it!

  9. well talking to myself a bit here but 6780 feels like too much to brak through. waiting for the fall now!

  12. im on side line, will only enter long at lower level, indicators on nearly all major timframes are “full”, need a little drop, not too much

      2. im also very bullish on ftse,
        but there needs to be a drop im looking around 6725-6750 before uptrend.
        im just taking a punt with a short at 6780 level, because vol is still high and everything is maxed out.
        im sure there will be a small pullback around 0.5% before any uprise.

  15. Sam – you have mail!

    Still looking bullish – expecting a strong end to the month at least. 6800 today I think and 6850 perhaps by tomorrow?

    1. Hi Javed, I haven’t received mail. Just to iterate, my email id is mailtosam10 at gmail.com

        1. Damn….I missed out the mail to at the beginning…..and it never bounced back……so who knows is reading it now!
          Anyway try now. If still gone to the wrong place I’ll send you my emaill address.

  19. Last time the Dow had one of these rush to head rallies pre open it dropped 200 points by 4pm. I am talking my own book as I’m short 6680-6690
    GG

    1. nice 8-10 point drop in a blink, hope thats enough to drive ftse down a bit to lower the indicators and make room for uptrend

      3. and with further 10 billion US QE reduction tonight that is not going to help. I reckon this is your upward movement broken now. AIMHO

        1. is there a big fall coming at the bell in US? GDP figures well off but futures not too bothered about it

      2. yes of course for other reasons as well but GDP is almost 0……now the big boys are sucking up all the shorts…….

  24. Ive closed short 3 point profiyt lool.
    Not gna risk it strat sayin bulls.. so gna wait for entry

  27. HashMash

    What made you short at 80. Really suprised me !
    Hope You are still beleiving your system!

    I thought ..JIM.. had also cracked up —–till I read there were 2 Jim’s

    You seen DavRos around ?

    Wheres your entry for your next long ?

    1. oh rob, my system was saying buy lol,
      i shorted as a small gamble as the indicators were “full”,
      im looking for a bit more room in indicator to resume my long positon

  28. Started to looked a little over done now I did predict last week that Thursday and Friday would be more bearish than bullish am still sticking to that have added to my Dax short at 9600 this morning and add only a little too my Ftse short…will check back later gl all

    1. Marco

      Are you Short ?

      Remember Thurs is MayDay – EU holiday.
      past Ftse performance is for a rise !!

  31. Cut half my short, figure like that GDP figure should have the Dow down at 16450 & ftse down to 6750 so I’m obviously missing something
    Unhappy Bear

    2. ftse holding it up, they new this GDP figure yesterday that’s why they pumped ftse up from yesterday so the fall wont be too bad.

  38. Have a tiny short in loss at the moment – as got bored waiting (it seems for days now) for a decent dip to go long as I think this has legs still into the 6800s, maybe even 6900 before the next dip. The dips have been rubbish and I know if i am not careful i will buy a shallow dip and then it will give a bigger dip. So not buying this side of 6750 and maybe will wait lower – trouble is will it get there !

  39. seems to have stalled around here, if I find it climbing any higher I will be very angry grrrrrr…

      1. quietly confident Senu but cant never say for sure till it happens. From what I can see in the charts we are at the top here at 6785.

  41. Just re looked at my charts and I think we have one more upswing before the big move down so this one will only go down to 6550 then up to 6900 then the big one down.

      1. I definitely feel we will get a decent drop in May/early June from the area you suggest but what makes you think this one will be more than a dip back to 6400-500 like its being doing for months now? We had a bigger dip last May so maybe we will dip a bit lower next time – but until I see evidence of a full blown correction/crash then will keep riding these trends as best I can. My plan is to go heavily short when we get north of 6850 and indicators are turning down and see where it turns again before switching

  42. As I said the range of 16513-16553 (40points range) at Dow and 6769-6791 (22 points range) at FTSE. Until it breaks, there will be no direction.
    No trades today.

  44. Hi Rob, Yes, it seems there are two ‘Jims’ at the moment, the other is very much lower case though. In the face of mulishness, I am thinking about a new name. Allowing duplicate names is a system weak point. (I’d prefer to log in with my unique user name. Cuckoos in the nest seem to be a growing problem.)

    In the meantime, major European and US indices are looking extremely bullish in my view. E.g., DAX/daily:

    http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/Germany30DFB_zps2387a6bb.png

  45. True Jim, and the ability to change names too. Though the IP address is a clue we don’t have time to check.
    How about we change our user names to our on-line dating alter egos?

    1. Ha-ha, I’m innocent! 🙂 But I don’t see IP addresses these days. Are you celebrating Javed?

      1. I can set it up so that you have to register to leave comments thus everyone would have unique identifiers?

  46. Of course I speak for the youngsters not us old ‘uns. I wouldn’t know what sites they go on…haha.
    Celebrating a winning trade you mean? In all seriousness…….no…..can’t get too excited whether it’s a gain or loss. On to the next one.

    GLA.

  49. if dow can hit 16590 before close tonight then it would be likley to go for top 16660 tomorow with ftse around 6810 …6830 then dip GL

  50. In my opinion the FED has cut down stimulus and also the GDP was not great so I think it will definitely come down.

  51. Ok, about to enable registration, only takes a second – just need a username and email entered into the box and then a password is emailed to you

  52. Good stuff…..seems to work. I chose an imaginative username / nickname. Get in there quick before your name gets taken Jim…….

  60. So with 6800 gone that’s 250 points since just before Good Friday ie just two weeks ago. Based on what?! This rise feels unreal which I suspect will give us a good correction soon- just need to be ready!

    1. Hi DavR0s,
      I’m still pretty new & learning the lingo, please could you explain what you mean by ‘correction’? Are you referring to overbought prices for what it is worth? Not sure if I’m making sense 🙂

      1. Hi Ken – I mean a drop of 5 maybe even 10% as we are due one soon. Have a look at last May although circumstances were a little different then

        1. I see, that is defo what the FTSE needs, also I’m holding couple of shorts so a correction would be great!

          Cheers DavR0s!

  72. Youhooi
    I have 5 shorts starting at 6740 roughly every 10 points . If it goes through 6808 I am out and lesson learnt not to try and predict market. If I have got it wrong I am hoping for a pull back to 6750 which will allow me out with small profit.

  74. marcopolo yes market hard to call. Same here. So far I have massive loss last two year.
    All expected ftse 6850

  75. Marcopolo…when you say you are out at 6808 do you mean you will blown your account?
    If so I would suggest that you don’t have enough capital to trade the size you have done…..and those positions are entered at too small a price interval.

  78. Counting last Monday as bullish, I think we’re in for a fourth bullish day. 🙂 Some US stats at 13:30.

  80. Javed, no account not blown I meant stops for all 5 shorts closed out. They were small positions but still not happy to have got it so badley wrong.

  82. Im still holding that short luckily mine stopped out Monday night. I had a little play yesterday on small ups and downs. Then shorted again so I’m not as deep as marco. But holding strong all the same

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