10th August 2017
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The geopolitical landscape kept the divi hunters away yesterday as the FTSE 100 dipped below 7500 and never really looked like regaining ground all day. With the 40 point divi applied, prices dropped to 7450 and stayed around that area overnight, despite a bit of a feeble gap close effort in the evening. However, for today the bulls might have a bit more of a go as we still have 7520 on the cards. Meanwhile, North Korea announces that they will have a battle plan for attacking Guam by mid-August…. While Japan and South Korea warn NK against doing anything. Its easy to dismiss it as bluster but the tension is still ratcheting up, though I doubt China will let anything too serious happen right on their doorstep.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
For today I am expecting a rise and a dip day. There is decent looking resistance at the 7420 area and that is around the fib 61% of the gap close from where we are at 7460 to the gap at 7542. With the backdrop such that it is the bulls might be a bit hard pushed to really push on in the very short term – stocks have been overvalued against fundamentals for a while and it would make sense to see some profit being taken off the table till things calm down. We had a good bull run of several consecutive record closes on the US indices.
If the bulls were able to push past the 7520 level then 7550, 7580 and 7600 are the next levels of note. I would be very surprised if we push much past 7600 though at the moment. Certainly while its kicking off in Asia.
The ASX200 had a rise and dip day as well during their Thursday session, and with safe haven assets such as gold and silver rising off the back off the NK tensions, we could see some more money flowing into commodities – which helps the FTSE 100. Cable also dropped down to break back below 130 – another thing that will help stabilise the FTSE 100.
Support wise, we have 7450 which is the overnight low since the close yesterday, but I am watching the fib level at 7424 as a better line in the sand. Below this then 7405 must be defended by the bulls otherwise a break of 7400 leads to 7380, 7300 and possibly as low as 7200 on a leg down.
So, really watching 7424, 7405 for support and 7525 area for resistance
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Currently short 52 target 36 (already hit it this morning but IG didn’t close, I wonder if it was my stop would they be as thoughtfull !), I also opened a binary for the ftse to finish up, I’m expecting it to rally to the 7480-500 area for lunchtime and I will close it, that’s the plan anyway 🙂
The brokers are a friendly bunch and helpful too…..I mean there’s not many places where you can deposit £5000 and get half a million of free credit ….:0)
Dont tell me you are long
Wouldnt dream of it…..
Don’t really like all the North Korea brinksmanship that’s going on……..a bit to close to Tufty for my liking..
Yes, its a bit worrying if its allowed to go far (don’t think it will). Cant see China, Russia, Iran etc just sitting by and watching NK get bombed.
Ha ha gd one Anstel, I suppose they have good chance of getting your money
Morning all. Holding shorts on ftse and dow.
Good move. US said to be planning a pre-emptive NK strike
All going according to plan. Next stop FTSE 7350. Dax will test 12000. Good shakeout in August not unusual. Gold heading to 1300.
This NK stuff is just hot air. As usual it will all settle down and both sides will claim victory for their domestic audiences. Suits them both. Panto season.
Indeed. August is always a silly month
Just out of interest anybody…..what is the short sentiment % now on IG….must be getting up to 90% I guess ?
59
That’s a surprise looking at the present weakness…thanks for posting…
You have had to endure some pressure on your shorts Icarus ,are you showing some profit yet ? It doesn’t look very happy just now……
Yes it is. Thanks buddy!
Cant wait to finally close it down!
It’s a pretty poor sentiment indicator. Market goes up they sell and goes down they buy. So always get caught the wrong side on trending moves. It was at least 70% earlier this week I think.. will be loads of retail who went long yesterday and now holding losses not wanting to close.. it doesn’t really define sentiment more shows how badly they’re executing their trades
Good point Mcg not thought of it that way before…..Thx.
I never really know how accurate it is anyway….but if it’s showing 90% in one direction I like to be contrarian unless it’s obviously the correct position to take…
Correct, the correct play is usually the opposite of the sentiment indicator- a tool to trap the unwary!
anyone going long down at 00 ?
No.. short and hold now unless there’s some supportive price action
I went long just now
If 7375 doesnt break by 3pm it could turn. I am looking at 3hr ftse for divergences
Nice bounce off 7400, trend is down though.. we will have to see how Trump land fairs this afternoon… Cable £/$ hoovering around 1.30
With European long posit ions being unwound can see cac and Dax pushing up to 5250 and 12500 over next few trading days. Long Dax 12060 and Cac 5140
I think your Dax long is a winner…
The dax will go sub-12000 today.
Don’t think so but I’m not trading it so let’s see…
I’m tempted to but it’s against my rules ….so I wont…couple of years back I would have jumped in…
Taking on too much risk at once is a recipe for disaster..
I think that disipline is one of the hardest parts of trading to control…….we still get the impulsivity but need to recognise the potential for unfavourable outcomes to develop when we already are holding positions…we can’t fight too many battles at once analogy.. In any case we don’t need the stress…..
You can make alot of money by remaining out of the market.
Better to be out wishing you were in,that in wishing you were out …
So very true!
The closed Dow is bouncing off the 50 sma on the 5 min….creating a lot of uncertainty …..but it’s trying…… Gold and Oil up….good for miners and BP and Shell…..
Evening all. 10.10pm here
Hope you all had a good day. WiFi still poor in hotel but 06.40am 10 aug all ok thanks…
Hope FTSE behaved today. Looks like it is waiting for a move. Earthquakes in China today not far from where I will be in a few days. So hopefully no aftershocks and certainly the NK situation had better not kick off…!!!
Enjoy your trading today everyone
Tufty B, Correspondent for Asian and Pacific Rim
:0) evening Tufty….it’s all happening !!!!
Bet you would just love some Roast Beef Yorkshire pudding and vegetables by now lol…..think I might have a Chinese tonight :0)
Haha, I would love a roast dinner…if we have any more egg and tomato soup, I will cry.
Watching the FTSE and it doesn’t look too happy. Hopefully we will see it pick up soon since I am assuming you are long again anstel?
Have you been a busy ant today?
It’s better than a dosing ox :0) tmfp would be proud :0)
Catching a falling knife here @7380
Candlemaster you were right Sir….
Well done Icarus…:0)
Thanks but too early for celebrations. Targets need met!
Just be careful it doesn’t bounce hard on you….maybe get your target met on new trade and save finance.
Could bounce. Divergence on 15 min. Dow showing signs of upswing.
Added long hedges 100%. Now a winner either way
Sometimes its the tough calls that put the money in your P and L……..it’s not nice holding when it’s going strongly against you….you deserve to bank some profits after the pressure you’ve been under…..good luck matey……
Hedges are a double edged sword sometimes though….ive a lot of success with them but I’ve also had some right nightmares when I’m stuck in the middle and daytrading to cover finance…
Another thing I learnt as well ,,you can only take what the markets offering.. I’ve been guilty of hanging on for a bit more and losing the lot on many occasions……one thing to be blue,,,but another to take it….still have problems with this….
It does look like the Dow is just teasing TBH 4 or 5 green candles on the 5 min then nothing….wouldn’t like to say where it’s goin…
Going up for now
You know the Dow could close green.Stranger things have happened.
I’m long so hope it does !
Just back in after a nice bike ride…..not much happenning ….Looks like the Dow is still weak, it’s cleaning out the longs from the dividend I expect…same old same old……
I’m just having a cup of tea and watching and thinking…..really and truly it’s amazing we can make money even 75% of the time with all the manipulation….its a joke really when you think about it…here’s probably another fakeout from the Dow…
Closed ftse shorts