Rise and dip today | Non Farm Payrolls 190k forecast

5th May 2017

Good morning. The bulls failed to break the 7285 resistance level and the market stalled just shy of the order again, topping at 7282, which is starting to get annoying! Oil continued to decline yesterday, falling below $50 per barrel, and cable rose, with the GBP/USD rate hovering around the 129 level – both of these helping the FTSE 100 bears. The ASX200 was weak again on Friday, again pulled down by the miners, and I expect the FTSE 100 will see some weakness again today.

Todays main news will be Non Farm Payrolls at 1330, forecasted to be 190k versus 98k previously.

The services sector purchasing managers’ index (PMI) from IHS Markit rose to 55.8 in April, up from 55 in March. Any score of above 50 indicates the sector is growing. “The level is consistent, on the basis of past form, with quarterly services sector growth of around 0.7pc – well above the 0.3pc rate seen in the first quarter,” said Scott Bowman at Capital Economics.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

For today I am again feeling like we will be predominantly bearish. We have resistance at the 7255 area with the daily pivot where and also the 30min coral trend indicator.If the bears do drive the FTSE 100 down from this level then a drop down to the fib level at 7209 looks possible. Below this we open up 7200 and then 7170 – a key level with the bottom of the 10 day Bianca here and S3. If this breaks then I wouldn’t be surprised if we shortly reach 7100.

If the bulls are able to push the price above the 7255 level then 7285 is still resistance, though the 2 hour chart has weakened off now, and might make things harder for the bulls – its not confirmed bearish but definitely looking like it shortly might be. Gold has risen from its low yesterday (still got the 1230 long running at the moment).

So, fairly simple plan really looking to short the rallies again, but be wary of a Freaky Friday with NFP at 1330. Also, we have the French election on Sunday so traders might well start to bank profits, especially on Dax…. though that seems to be the index that only rises the past 2 weeks!

23 Comments

  1. Morning chaps..I’m long from combined 33.1 looking for a run to just below 50… Initially?…Well done Icarus yday with your Dow trade :0)..

      1. Shorted SP at 2388. Long gold from yesterday at 1230. Lets see how Freaky Friday plays out…..

          2. Added slightly short at 46.2 now…I will overcome this shorting fear no matter what :0)

            1. I think you went in a wee bit early mate. 75-80 is where this is likely to stall. I would wait until the weakness develops. Best of luck

          4. I think I did,I’ve done about 9 scalping trades after my first long and I just held it too long by about 3 secs lol…I need to feel pressure on the short side anyway so let’s see what happens …

  2. Morning all. Thanks anstel. Closed ftse short at 5:30 This morning at 34 and spx short at 85. Looking to get back in with shorts again

    1. Brave trade that Dow short…don’t think I could have taken it……Icarus 1 …. Federal reserve 0 :0)

      1. 🙂 cheers mate. My target on Dow was between 850 and 750 and it reversed right at 850. 750 will come soon imo. Spx Spec is looking dangerous for bulls atm. My target is around 75 for spx and if there is a sustained breakout it would head to 2300. No need to mention what will happen to mr. Dow

  3. My preferred play was to short Dow and ftse again around 950 today at ftse open, but given we have already had a retrace overnight I am still watching for signs of weakness. Margins increase today at 4 pm on ig so will have to be an intraday trade only

  4. Oil having a hand in this FTSE rise I think. above 7255 then 7288 area looks possible. Gold trying to rise from the 1230 though….

  5. Im long gold from 1262 with 2 more slices of capital left to deploy so if yesterdays low holds I will look to double up next week.
    Price action in stocks points to strength. FTSE has a made a higher low a few days ago.
    I have no position here, casino time with NFPR and French weekend risk so no thanks.

    1. I think you should always use your last trade to set your next price?
      What do you really do when you close a trade, you’re still either buying or selling.
      For example Nick was short 7275 – closed at 7271 (so bought @7271) and then went short @7243 (so sold @7243 28 points lower than previous buy)?!
      Just doesn’t really make sense to me?
      Obviously any tips and insight much appreciated.

    2. Ive just been playing around with it at £1 a point. Don’t really like the way they report trades though as its not a true reflection on what is happening.

      1. Have a good weekend Icarus, enjoy the nice weather, good luck, catch you next week….

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