Rise and dip – resistance 7491 7511 – Trading help and analysis – learn trade

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1. Morning all. Holding dow and ftse shorts

   1. I have shorted at 7491 as well.

      1. All the best Nick

2. Ftse is in the right area for a short.
   Im long gold again.looking for a push and hold over 1280 target 1300.

3. Anyone used belkhayate cog ?

4. Missed good 12960 short. Currently short 47 but don’t like my stake. Small. But the risk needed to be reduced at such entry.

   1. I’d rather add up, it was a pivot entry.

   2. I know all this construction should drop to 12920 to complete the wave pattern and hopefully by then it will drag it down anyway. 12900 will be hard to break.

5. FWIW my opinion is we are on for a break above 7500…….. It’s only going to take a further sell off in GBP/USD and I can see it exceeding 7500……. I think it could surprise many with some unforeseen gains…. Just my opinion nothing more….and I’m wrong often…

   1. I think Key to this is what cable does if it reaches 1.3150 the 50 sma on the daily cable chart a break below the 50sma and Ftse will fly I think…

   2. Still uptrending, higher highs and lows. Think it trades in this mornings range for the rest of the day now and break above 7500 on non farm payrolls. Still think 7540 area then a decent decline

      1. Yes I agree……probably rise into NFP tomorrow then sell of on the announcement and then a steady climb into the close tomorrow……not so sure about the sell off at 7540……even though the chart does suggest it….7540 is going to be a very interesting area…

         1. Look for a break of the previous low area to suggest the upside is done for now. So that’s trailed up to 7455 area for me. Above there and it’s still trending up. Looks similar to the May and December rallies which went on way longer than you’d anticipate at the start. If we see 7540 then I would expect 7490 will become support.. then a break of that range determines direction

            1. Thanks Mcg….its a very similar price action to after the U.S. election…..when the US results came out the Dow rallied and the Ftse hit around the 7000 mark can’t remember exactly without looking through my information but then Ftse retraced while the Dow held its gains….then late December/ Jan we got the bull run from the sell off well under 7000 to eventually 7599.5 in June. I can see the possibility of a similar thing happening.and it may well push on well past the previous highs……it’s all an opinion so back to the here and now……OK thanks I’m going to watch for your 7455 area for clues…cheers.

   3. Oppsy, I feel more bearish today, but I’ve been trying to be bearish for a couple of days now so hope for drop. The chart set up is very mixed but I see both short set up for Dax, FTSE looks more long. I don’t know.

      1. This is b/e for me, I’ll monitor what it is, it is profitable, and close if it reaches those set targets.

      2. Really mixed, really rangy.

         1. Moment of truth, 34.

6. The markets have come so far they must be looking for an excuse to take profits. I think NFP cant be good news unless the number is so weak it undermines the case for interest rate hikes. Thats unlikely. So I reckon sell off at some stage tomorrow, but Im not shorting it.

7. Long Dax at 12940 TP 13040

   1. Maybe after 13.30-14.30 it will drop but I am out +1. Could have had 10, had the bells ringing in my head but… hoped for a break.

8. I wonder if Nick is out of his FTSE short? It looks like it’s climbing back to 7494, or maybe not that much who knows.

   1. Looks like it’s giving up again. I need a fresh air.

9. Crucial level now approaching on cable….if it drops below 1.3150 Ftse will go up exponentially I think….

   1. Yeah, the fall in cable hasnt really spurred ftse on though has it, just a slow grind up. A bounce in cable woild be interesting.

      1. Well let’s see hey……the key word is “exponentially”.

         1. That key level on the downside for me is now 7470.. could stall around here (7495) today. But think 7540 by early next week still

            1. Thanks for the update….

10. 62 better than 47

    1. Still don’t think it’s worth shorting, out +1

       1. 12966? maybe this one will drop

    2. Got my profits, half today’s range and done with it.

11. Added shorts to both

    1. Thought you said exit shorts at 22700? It’s dangerous selling this until there’s some sort of supportive price action or resistance established.. it’s melting up and hard to say where the top is. FTSE 7540 is the obvious place but above there and it’s hard to say. If you look at the December move FTSE pretty much went from 6650-7365 with only one notable pullback so when the bulls get hold of it need to respect the price action

       1. Yeah, but this is the first time really we’ve hit 700 so want to watch the reaction

          1. 22760 now ??!!

             1. Getting a bit of a joke now, showing all the signs of a trader holding on, who has lost their discipline. I’ve been keeping an eye on the comments section on this blog and all I read is that you’re ‘Holding onto shorts’ or ‘Adding to shorts’. It’s clear that the US indices are breaking out and trying to catch the top will likely end badly. We’ve all been in this position atleast once. Define an exit strategy and stick to it.

                1. Cheers mate and thanks for the feedback. I do see why you’re saying that, but as i have also said before i have hedged plenty early on and have made a fair bit so not overly worried. I will bail when i cant maintain the position, no doubt about it, but i want to give a chance to my analysis. If i dont who else will 🙂

                   1. 1. I put a ‘praying’ emoji. WordPress doesn’t recognise it!

                2. Evening thepitguy, ive just seen your comments to Icarus……just like to say that the first time you have posted on here is at a time when Icarus has enough worries with his position…what he needs is a bit of friendly support…..anyone who has been trading for any length of time has made some big mistakes along the way, i have…we all have…its easy to comment when he’s already in the mess but not as easy to foresee it coming….. what we need is to help each other in a friendly and supportive manner in my opinion….just sayin’ matey…

                   1. Hi Anstel, Agree with your remarks. Maybe I was coming on a bit too strong. However as I stated below, I’ve had a friend go through something like this and giving them an arm around the shoulder isn’t the way to deal with it. They also covered and made money when the overall trend was going against them, but it never ends well. What are we suppose to say? ‘Keep going mate, it will turn around and you will be fine?!’. Holding junk and adding to it is just bad practise.

12. Icarus it all depends on your position size this…..in the past I have run 1200 pts underwater against me on the dow and got out eventually by the skin of my teeth……don’t keep adding not only can it destroy you financially but it can make you very poorly……..your body creates adrenaline whether or not you can take the emotional side by being thick skinned…..the adrenaline will send your cholesterol up …..it can effect your kidneys…..it’s not to be taken lightly……take it from me…..the emotional side can take a toll on your wellbeing….best of luck as always though….

    1. My cholesterol level showed an increase in the last blood test in spring. Since then I was fighting to reduce it by dieting etc. But I never thought that it could be due to trading!!! anstel, you opened my eyes on it.

    2. Thanks for your kind words anstel. The position size is fairly big for my liking. Lets see how it all pans out.

       1. We are in the 5th wave which should be ending fairly soon. Whether we get an extended 5th. I dont know! Time will tell. Either way i would like a reaction at these levels.

       2. I don’t want to scare you but I heard about 7 waves on youtube yesterday. It doesn’t matter how many waves are there you need to start reducing your position for the time being and add up later. Make it a least manageable to maintain. Add on top, take profits, accumulate profits, reduce the size by 30% etc.

    3. 1200 points?! Wow lol. Might as well got stopped out for 20 points 60 times.. way less stress and can guarantee you’d have some winning trades in there to compensate. Stops are an essential part of winning overall

       1. 1200 points, yes I had it on Dow in November 2014. I got caught out on the rise from 16888 to 18000-ish. My stake was £1-3 but still I lost then, don’t remember how much, could be 2-3 grand. It took me a while to remember in what year it was and what prices I had, you forget it quickly. The fact of loss is written somewhere but you forget that as well.

          1. best thing I find with cutting a loss, you can focus your energies on what’s in front of you, rather than stressing from managing your existing position.

             1. Which you forget eventually completely. Agree with you. Cut the stress is the best.

                1. I have a mate on this blog who I’ve seen go through the same motions. Didn’t end well!

          2. Hey Jack…..:0)….lol that’s exactly the same 1200 pts I got stuck with…….if you remember it dropped from the 16800 area first down to 15800 then retraced back to 16800 …I shorted at the 16800 area and it went up to 18000 ….did make a loss but not on the actual position….. I spent a fortune on toilet rolls :0)

             1. Yes, that’s the same I found my records to check that. That’s the same position we were in exacrly as you described. We must have thought the same way back then. 🙂 I cannot fully remember but I think I tried to reduce the position and was closing losses by chunks, not all in one go. The point I am making is that we forget losses, money, pain, just remember some points and direction. So it is easy to fall back into this if you lose your discipline. And nobody is safe and then it reminds you all the lessons you learnt the hard way. Keeping your discipline is the key.

       2. All part of the learning process :0) ……I bet you’ve made a few errors along the way?……..we should have a confessions day when we all tell about all the bad decisions we have made? it would make some good reading…..:0)

13. Yes, I know it went UP, but to go long at these levels I am kind of scared. Who would have thought that after 4.30 long trend will continue? Dow really looks unstoppable. What is happening? Will it drop on NFP tomorrow? Dax looks jittery with his long today.

14. Long on Dow since this morning at 21660, closed one, one left.,,

    Wish I kept the one open from earlier in week. This is going to 23k or near.

    The market is insane but the rate it’s climbing it’s going to continue I think.

    Long on Dax too, hoping Dow will push it past 13k to my target 13040

    1. I did well on the Dax long, I just couldn’t believe it would go any higher, but it does.

       1. Sorry, I meant YOU did well on Dax long.

15. No one truly knows where’s it’s going, guess work has a lot to do with it.

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