Rise and dip | buy the rumour sell the news | Trading help

7th September 2017
The main news was that the US debt ceiling has been extended for another 3 months. Is it really a ceiling though if it moves? There was also the surprise resignation of Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer which saw the US markets decline initially, though they soon recovered.


FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 daily channels support and resistance
FTSE 100 daily channels support and resistance

For today I think we might see an initial rise awards the cluster of resistance levels round the 7380 to 7400 area then a dip back down. Markets are still a bit jittery and of course we have the ECB meeting today which will give further guidance on QE (and possible tapering), as well as rates. Any mention of the euro and its relative impact on financial and economic conditions, as a result, may be the biggest market mover on Thursday.

As such I am thinking we might see a buy the rumour, sell the news sort of day, though of course it is dependent on what that news actually is. A day to stay nimble! This is all around 12:45 am. We also have some US jobs data out at 13:30.

As you can see from the resistance and support section of this email, there are several key resistance levels around the 7400 area so I am thinking that looking to short on the 7380 to 7405 area is a good play. As per yesterday we can fade in shorts here rather than entering at one specific number if thats easier. Initial resistance is 7380 where we have the 200ema on the 30min, and also R1. The at 7400 we have a key fib and R2. If the bulls were able to push above this then I am looking for a rise towards 7460 so it might be worth flipping to a long if the shorts get stopped out.

Support is again at the 7320 area which we tested yesterday, though initially there is decent support from the 30min coral at 7345, and we also have the daily pivot here.

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44 Comments

  1. Hey all!
    Thought I’d say hi! – I’m not dead. yet 🙂
    Been a tough couple of quarters at the moment, which I put down to mental emotional instability lol… aka sizing up tooooo much and refusing to lose – a lethal combination!
    Hope you’re all doing well 🙂

    1. Hey inoodle nice to see you are still in the game….it’s tough sometimes isn’t it….
      The more mistakes we make the closer we get to changing our self defeating actions………it’s strange ….it’s almost as if we are hard wired to make the same mistakes over and over…..I have been fortunate to recognise certain market conditions that I recognised from experience and managed to exploit them enough so far to keep me on the learning curve……tell you what though…you only have to take your eye off the ball briefly and it can go bad fast if you are trading any size….I think size is the killer…..that’s why we are allowed to leverage so much….it’s because we can get Into big trouble……..I think size is more acceptable when you have built up a decent trading capital and more importantly managed to finally control the discipline….Lets concentrate on staying in the game and not on making big money then hopefully we will mature as traders and slowly increase our profits….best of luck…….

    1. Hi Jack I’m holding some longer term positions at moment….not actively doing much just keeping an eye on things….

    2. anstel, it was a punt as to Nick’s prediction 390 area. I could not help, it was rising sharply and I was scared to do Dax at that time so I risked on FTSE.

    3. It’s the shame they decided to raise back up, I don’t think I will enter again, it was a momentum as it felt I could have a risk then.

      1. It was over 80 on the RSI Jack……good for 10-12 pts…….tmfp territory …..think like your a sniper and take the shot when it shows itself…I.e. Grab the points….easier said than done….I know…..I try and think when I’m scalping……its a contract for difference and I have a positive difference ….The trouble is we get greedy and think oh great a trip down to 50 and 40 pts in the bag. Training the mind is extremely hard ……

        1. Yes, I was caught on that, should have grabbed those 10 points. RSI was indeed above 80 as I see it now, interesting.

  2. I’m getting some conflicting signals today.. the last week or so it’s not been following the pivots that well. Yesterday I got stopped on my shorts on the bounce through 7350 as it didn’t reach my target of 7290-7310. Today FTSE has gone above 7380, so the logical thing would be a move to 7440 next. However, I’m just not feeling it.. Dax often sells off after draghi and can’t see people holding long into the weekend when more missile tests are expected. For that reason I’m going to sit this one out and see what happens. Would be nice for the range to break as it’s getting a bit boring now

      1. Yeah that’s what you’d expect.. but they’ve thrown a couple of curve balls the last week. Plus I’d say around 80% of the time they sell the news where the ECB is concerned, and the rally is being led by defensive stocks so there’s no guarantees. If I was already long I’d just stick a stop at breakeven and see what happens

        1. It’s funny isn’t it….? The other day Ftse was up in the 7430s and then out of the blue dropped 110 pts….hard to predict for sure……but I wonder where that strength evaporated too and I know it’s there…just needs a catalyst……

    1. Agree with you, that’s why I closed my longs. It could push to 12400 on Dax but I would look for a nice short position later on, hopefully.

      1. Could go either way mate.. just seeing the chance to scalp short. As long as 7370-80 area holds then 7440 looks possible

  3. Ftse has visited 300 quite a few times so i would imagine 200 is on the cards pretty soon and 7000 is probably not that far away either

  4. Impulse for short was completed nicely at 13.50, retrace failed to reach higher than 12349 but short is disappointing. I reckon it won’t fall today on Dax.

  5. Hi chaps, thought I should check in too. Been on holiday and distracted by other project.

    Had a good day running the dax up and down.

    long on Dow, short on gold and platinum at the mo

    1. I’ve also been on holiday on Isle of White and Poole and around. It was a great time actually. It is hard to trade while on holidays. Nice to hear from you.

        1. Brings back fond memories….spent some time in Shiel Bridge caravanning…….it was in 1995 when they opened the Skye Bridge……went to Glenelg where the film Ring of Bright Water was based…and also over to Plockton…..a beautiful part of the country….I love Scotland especially the west coast…

          1. Yeah stunning views. Went out this evening for a drive and watched the sunset with Lewis and Harris in the background. Nature has such a great calming effect!

  6. Closed long at 7396 for 22 pts just before spread change…..its Friday tomorrow and I’m wary……had planned for 7419 it hit 7412 earlier,thought it would run higher before close but should have taken the 7410-7412 area in hindsight….never mind worth a shot and points banked…goodnight if anyone’s around….

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