5th July 2017
With the US closed yesterday for Independence Day, the FTSE ended up repeating, pretty much exactly, Monday’s action with a slow rise to 7380 then a quick sell off at the end of the day. Overnight it has stayed around the 7360 level, and looks like it will test the 7405 resistance area soon. Above that I am watching XXXX for resistance. Support wise, I am still watching the 7330 level where we have support on the 2 hour chart. Whilst the 2 hour chart looks bullish while 7330 holds, the daily chart looks weaker with the channels heading down.
The ASX200 dipped initially, then rose back, as geo-political tensions in the Asia Pacific region continue after North Korea test fired that ICBM missile (though not one seems totally sure if it was or wasn’t). Markets in the past have shown a capacity to quickly move beyond periods of tension on the Korean peninsula following short bouts of risk aversion. Political turmoil on the Korean peninsula comes ahead of the G-20 summit in Hamburg this week as the United Nations Security Council prepares to host an emergency meeting Wednesday.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
For today I am thinking that we will see that 7405 resistance level that we have had pencilled in all this week. The bulls have tested the 7385 level twice now and a third test is likely to break. There are several resistance levels here so we may well see a turn down from here, but if not then the levels I am watching above this are XXXX and XXXX, both of these are worth a short from to see if the price turns there.
Support wise we have the pivot at 7357 to start with, then 7330 below that which is 2 hour support. If that breaks then XXXX is daily support, with a key fib level at XXXX lower down.
So there are a few areas of note, and I am also mindful of the ASX200 move which was a dip and rise. We may well do similar. We also have the US coming back after their day off yesterday. The Federal Reserve is due to release minutes from its June policy meeting, the latest clues for investors on the path for U.S. interest rates ahead of Friday’s key jobs report.
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Morning all. Holding ftse longs and dow shorts. Gold exited for +1
long 68 – dax needs to come to the party though
Sold 7380 again.. still expecting a move to at least 7200. America back online today so volume will pick up. 7330-40 and 7300 supports but think we break those this week
Also sold 80’s today. Cashed 80’s last night for 30 points and still short from 67 looking for a move to low 300’s, which may come later in the week.
I was impressed by the strength today so went against the 80 play. Regretting it!
Yeah they always do this just before the bigger moves.. like last week’s final rally to 7450. A break of 7330-7340 today would be a bearish development. Also lots of selling going on at the close on both FTSE and Dow the last few days suggesting the bigger players are cutting exposure
funny how a bad entry can influence your future judgement. Need to watch that!
Running longs. Added shorts same size
hi Nick – any divi today?
Think I read it was 1.3
cheers Mcg. You still short?
Yeah still got half my positions from 7545, 7464 and 7450 which I’m looking to scale out between 7100 and 7200. Added a positional short at 7380 which I’m holding for a break of 7300 and been doing a bit of day trading in this range. As long as we’re under 7380-400 area I expect it to break down. Clear that area it goes a bit more ambiguous but to show bulls have retaken control it needs to clear 7450 really
its a bit choppy today which I usually read as a change of direction coming. Hence the long
Choppy usually means corrective activity which is generally bearish. The bull moves are usually much more clean. And it kind of is a change of direction.. this is Day 3 off the low on Friday so we’ve chopped higher, so expectation is we resume the downtrend soon. If it breaks and holds 7380 then longs are possible but until then I’m only interested in longs when oversold on support
yes, its 1.3 as MCG said
Closed Dow short from 540. +75. Running the rest
Closed ftse longs
Added to ftse shorts
Evening. Where is the next resistance past 405 for free please?
Easiest way is to look at an hourly chart and see where the extremes of the moves were.. so 7380, 7440-50, 7480-90, 7540s. In my view market goes neutral from bearish if we break and hold 7380 and probably goes bullish above 7450
Nothing till 500 in my view.
In fact 7405 is not resistance at all. 7425 – 7530 is.
7425-7430 I meant
Cheers all. Good to see you all doing the hours!
Just noticed that predictive text changed FTSE lower case to free. Nick probably thinks I’m trying to do him out of money!