3rd March 2017
FTSE 100 Support 7356 7341 7338 7325 7267 7245
FTSE 100 Resistance 7371 7373 7382 7390 7392 7412 7416 7453
Good morning. A bit of normality yesterday with a consolidation day after that rally from nowhere on Wednesday which saw the FTSE stay within a narrow 20 point range. It actually held up pretty well as the US was a bit more bearish, with the Dow retreating from its 21150 level to back below 21000. Question is, are we going to get a pullback as its got ahead of itself or is it all just coiling for another push higher? To start with the 30min chart is showing some bearish signals with resistance at 7373 and 7391.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
Wednesday’s rise caught most people off guard judging by the general theme posted on various news sites, blogs, forums and so on. So yesterday saw everyone taking stock and trying to work out what the next stage of the unpredictable markets holds. Overnight we have had a bit of a dip off the back of a bearish US session and a weaker Asia session.
As mentioned above the 30min chart is showing resistance initially at 7373, though we might pop above this to test the R1 and coral area at 7390. If this area were to break and the bulls manage to push above 7399 then we are more than likely to see a rise to the 7420 are where we have the top of the Bianca channels, and possibly even 7450. Will they be that strong on a Friday though?
Support wise, we have S2 initially at 7356 and then the 2 hour coral at 7325. I am thinking that trying shorts at the 7390 area is worth a go today and see if we get a bit of a retrace/reality check of Wednesdays rise.
As its Friday its never going to be straightforward and the FTSE is slightly bonkers at the moment, largely being controlled by the GBPUSD rate. The ASX200 had a rise and dip day after a pretty bearish Thursday (seems that the FTSE was the only market not to drop back on Thursday) and I think that we will do the same.
I do think that the bulls will try and go for the 7395 level rather than dropping from the 7373 area, however there is nothing wrong with fading in trades and entering at 7373 and 7390 if it rises further, to both target the 7350 and 7340 levels is a viable plan.
Still got the 74 short anstel? Nice drop off the 7370 area this morning
Hi Nick.no I dumped it last night for mixed results….I had some at 91 a lot at 73-75….and a couple at 54 and 58……I had not slept Monday night and Tuesday night and I had nothing left so I took an overall loss of £615.50 to get some sleep….it just felt like I could wake up at 7420 and it was £110pp rather have the sleep……anyway I’m long now £100pp from 64 so hopefully recover loss and make a couple of K. Who knows though really……treat money with respect but be indifferent to it……it really is the key….
Lucky day with my long 11997 (after I lost 7 points on 12007.7 long) but it doesn’t matter now. Had a couple of cheeky scalps 12040 short, but not holding at the moment. How’s your day been? anstel, are you there?
Hi Jack, sorry buddy, ive just been in the zone and not posting much…..yes I’m doing ok so far thanks Jack…
How are you getting along ?
Oh, anstel, after that drop on Friday where I lost a grand, for me it was a big thing but I managed not to lose 3 grand, and I’m grateful for this. If I held I would have recovered everything and on top. But the thing is, when you lose you have a different state of mind. At first you strongly think about the win, then start thinking – why didn’t I close earlier, at the end you think: I will be happy to give you (to the market) a certain sum, just get back to that price. What it means that at the end of the day I never win on trades like this, so the best to me would be strengthen the strategy of stops.
I’ve been working on analyzing this at the weekend but then I got a flu which I am still battling with. Tuesday was terrible for me as I could see the price on the phone but could do nothing about it.
Today I recovered 1/5 of my loss which was pleasant.
If we can push through this double top on 5 min Ftse we should be on for high 80s I reckon……cable down at 1.2224 and looking nervy…gold 1227.9… It’s going up this 7400 and above I reckon….but I’m no technical specialist I’m just feeling the market….
Tell you what Nick,at some point in the future Im thinking of coming to one of your training seminars…..I think there’s a lot of the technical side you could teach me .and if I combine that with the way I do it, it could be even better :0)…..not yet though I don’t think this is about technicals….
Does anyone on here trade the Dow or is it too volatile?
Used too a lot but just FTSE for me now….best to learn one market inside out and upside down than to trade different markets….in my experience when you trade….for example….the Ftse……and its a longer term swing trade that’s out of range…you can get bored and think ..oh I will take a small position on ..the Dow or Dax or Silver……or one day I got really adventurous and went long on lean hogs lol……made about 5 dollars on the hogs.lol.the @@@@ing spread was 35 usd…..then I tried it again and lost about 600 usd …..that was the last pig trade I did :0)…..just stick to one or max two markets and get to know them….we just need a vehicle to trade so best to know it well…..good luck mate…
I started from FTSE to learn, then traded Dow for a couple of years but then discovered Dax. What I didn’t like when trading Dow was mornings: the spread was 2 points and it was very slow, it was 1 points after open at 14.30 or something. I put up with that but when they changed for 2 points spread all the time I switched to Dax because of spread and speed. What I also disliked in Dow was fierce openings. It does move faster than Dax sometimes and more generous on pull backs, but their upthrusts and spikes sometimes nasty. They are everywhere nasty.
I’m currently trading FTSE, DAX, Dow,S&P,Tech100, USDJPY,GBPUSD,EURUSD.
I find it is useful to spread risk. The DOW has been a money maker for me, through recent very dull periods of consolidation in the FTSE, when my swing trades were not well suited. Post election, for example, I positioned in the Tech, Dow and Russell2000. Tech and russell just consolidated, Dow went off with a rip. Then tech began to look cheaper accordingly and traders started to buy it, so it’s time came too.
Hi cowboy,I used to have 3 or 4 markets on the go at one time but they all went against me and I was forced to close out positions at large losses to protect the remains of my account…..if you blow all you money thats goodnight Vienna.i think you could be taking on a little bit too much with all those markets to be honest, depending on your use of stops of course….it’s like fighting a war with lots of battlefronts,you run a greater risk of running out of resourses and getting your butt kicked….
Feels it breaks down on dax
Good I closed my long 31 on around 40th
You cant win spreadbetting or trading CFDs in sizeable amounts. The only winner is the SB company. It is gambling and an addiction no different to fruit machines. If someone tells me they spreadbet my next question is how much have you lost so far?
Pay no attention to information sources singing the praises of leverage. It is your enemy.
We now live in a world of Exchange Traded Funds, the best thing since sliced bread.
No stamp duty, no financing charges, almost zero commission and management fees, use physical replication funds not synthetic so theres no counter-party risk.
Build your capital slowly rather than lose it fast to a SB company.
It is easier to run your winners when you are holding the fund, believe me, it removes the pressure of crazy leveraged positions which I experienced briefly myself, and permits better decision-making, i.e. the emotions are easier to manage.
Well while im sat here watching the markets I’m thinking about all the people who used to post on here….let me have a think…..WSF,hugh,Rick,Si,Smokinaces,Havies,Paul hambley,Senu,Coombsy,Morko,
think tmfp,inoodle,are doing ok but the drop out rate and people that have lost their accounts is very high……I’m sure there is a lot of people I havn’t remembered…I know Argyle still posts but a lot have fallen by the wayside,like candle master says,leverage can be a double edged sword and if you lose your head risk will take you…….Mindfulness is a big thing in my book…..you have to control the mind you bring to performance,forget about the money,concentrate on how well you acted in the heat of the moment…..I had a day two weeks back I lost quite a large amount but it had been four times worse,when I closed on the Friday although I had made a loss on the week overall my performance in minimising the loss was excellent and I finished the session and said to myself from the situation I was in I could not have traded any better…..that was satisfying but money wise I made a loss……taking a loss is part of the game,you have to learn to like losses…..
Exactly, anstel, being satisfied with your loss means you master your game. That’s what I am writing to myself since last year (cos if you don’t write a diary you cannot read and recall what happened). For me my strategy shouts: small losses are easier to recover than large losses. Small losses mobilize your inner resources the same way as big losses, it feels the same: loss is a loss whether it’s big or small. But it takes faster to recover small ones.
I wonder where tmfp gone? Senu. Yeah, many people gone. RJ. They must be doing well.
Yeah,you’ve got it Jack exactly right…it takes years ….like 3 or 4 before the penny drops…….I think you will do well over time…..I know you have had quite big account losses over the years we have been on here… So have I …?.but i don’t regard a monetary loss as a loss any more……nope I regard it as an investment in experience……:0)
Just to add…..a lot of people come to trading because they think it’s easy money…they fund an account and expect to make a lot of money…..problem is……as with most things in life…..you only get out what you put in…..there are so many different things that a trader has to do to find consistency…..most don’t want to do the work…..and then wonder why they do not achieve the results they desire….
Agree with you. Have a nice weekend. 🙂
Like losses? I dont think so. That implies you dont like wins. I like wins. I dont like losses.
Just kidding, I know what you really mean, ie run winners and cut losses.
My point is you cannot accomplish this spreadbetting with meaningful position sizes.
Lets say the market moves in your favour and moves so fast you win big, there was no option to get out with a small win. You think you can walk on water. You will probably jncrease your positon size now. Even if you dont, you will return your win to the market inside a week. I used to bump into employees of a well-known SB firm in a pub I used to frequent and they were scathing of their customers whom they regarded as total mugs, many of their customers lost their homes and were undoubtedly addicted gamblers. The few big winners were usually new customers suspected of insider knowledge ( illegal) and were iften referred to the regulator for investigation.
My point is there is a better way proceed, via etfs. If the market moves against you just hold it will come back. Use money management to enter and exit positions. Get smart. Yes you can outperform the market but you wont do it through adrenaline-fuelled SBs.
Thats a one-way ticket to Loserville.
And everyone readung this knows its true.
It works the opposite ways: if you like losses, the wins come more often. haha. It’s physiology.
how come the cable and ftse are both rising?
Afternoon Everyone,
I hope you’ve all had a good week. I’ve become a bit of a ghost reader over the past few weeks as every time I jump into the comments I end up trading more.
Nick great write up today, I feel we’re in Limbo at the moment – will the FTSE push for 420-50 or is the flat movement before the great fall.
I actually got involved with Snap Inc. today, as I decided to avoid the IPO yesterday – insanely made around 100 points but kept the stake size so small, always the way – whenever I go heavy on a position it seems to bite me.
I’m also still holding a few FTSE positions from December, happy to just run with them and avoid trading, it could well be a quite 3 months for me but I would prefer to run than out-trade it.
Also very true Anstel about liking losses. Holding the FTSE positions has been a fantastic experience for me, I no longer feel fear or panic when looking at Red. I simply now analyse the outcome and make a plan. There is always an option. Although I wouldn’t recommend doing this.
Have a great weekend chaps.
Hi Alex just to clarify,the learn to like losses comment….in the past I have held some quite large losses and it has come back…..I have also held some quite large losses and had to liquidate at a loss due to lack of resources……no… What I meant was…..if you have a position,and you feel it is wrong,take the loss and flip the position…….The first cut is the cheapest……..is so true….I’d rather take a 20 point loss and not have to spend two and a half months with sleepless nights wondering if it is going to retrace…..also you have the chance to regain the 20 pts asap because you are flat again….it goes against the grain taking a loss but actually it’s the way forward so long as you don’t make a habit out of it :0) good luck mate…..oh and run your profits they say…. I say don’t run them dry till they reverse on you……take the blue…..oh that reminds me of someone else……Hi Chippy…..hope your doing well mate….