Possible rise to 7335 today. US tax reforms. Trading help and analysis

43 Comments

1. Oh, I missed the rise. Too late start of the day. I hope it will retrace.

   1. Dax is always greedy for retrace. But sometimes it falls like a brick at the end, that’s what I hope for, 12640 would be great.

2. Morning. Holding ftse longs and dow shorts

   1. I notice you’ve held them for a while. GL

      1. Thanks Jack

   2. Looks like you predicted short on Dow brilliantly today, was it a useful drop for you?

      1. Yes it was jack. My first target is around 700 though

         1. 21700??? OMG

            1. Yes, wont be surprised if dow bounced from 22200 area towards 22500 and sell off.
               My eventual target of 19000ish is still valid.

3. Well there goes the pound, simply spent too long failing to push on and now it really is flagging.
   I exited my FTSE longs yet again around 7310 for another small profit, it should have kicked on harder this morning on currency weakness so cant forgive that. Times the pound fall well but didnt get the reward hoped for.
   A dull couple of weeks on FTSE, but no losses taken so thats OK.

4. Yessss, I’m currently long Dax.

   1. Taken half +20, the rest b/e on +2

5. Rising wedge on the FTSE daily. Could pop higher here but once the tax thing is out in the open there could well be a correction across the board. Would eventually expect it to retrace back towards 7200 here once the move is done. There’s a sell set up here at 7320, break above here then need to await the next set up

   1. When is the tax thing?

      1. Looks like it’s just come out according to twitter

   2. Maybe but across most timeframes there are breakouts and displays of strength. Only the brave would short here. Would need a big reversal on daily to reverse the momentum.

      1. Thank you, I am not rushing into shorts atm. I hope for 12700 ish. But looks like it may not.

      2. I just hope Dow will calm down in a bit and Dax starts gaining again.

      3. That’s the matter with Dow, how annoying.

      4. SPX and Dow appear to be rangebound, they could turn around here as it looks similar to the August consolidation. Dax has had another leg up but is still around a resistive area on the daily as it’s testing the mid July swing high. FTSE so far is a retest of Friday’s high. The way I trade and enter positions I’m generally looking for 15+ points of profit for risking 10 points. So all my trades I cut pretty much straight away when it goes against me. 7320s is an area of interest hence the short. And the comments around a reversal to 7200 is the general direction of travel I can see but not necessarily where I’m aiming with my entry if that makes sense. In fact, if we break 7320s it would make me reassess the picture again and await a new set up

         1. You have a good risk/reward, the smaller the stop the more you gain. It is something you learn after years and years. I aim for 10 points SL on Dax entries although it could stretch up to 15-20. The reward I aim to get: as much as possible generally 2:1, or it depends. First I need to take half or some part at the first overbought situation and let the pull back reveal itself. And this is the hardest part, sometimes a pull back kill everything. Like today. I had a feeling that rise from 13.38 on Dax looked suspicious, and look how it dropped below my initial SL 12657, with the 2nd entry 12660 I had 3 point SL, later +2.
            We all use different strategies here, but waiting for a set up is the main thing.

6. I knew they wanted to tickle my b/e, survived just by 1 point. Yet.

   1. Close me +2 remainder. Sad. Really. And plus headache. Sad.

   2. I should have come out the last chance at 15.33 but I was at the school run. At 15.13 it showed a sign of reversal but I ignored it. Just have half of that trade today.

   3. Done for today, Dow spoiled it all.

7. Did anyone notice that 5m barrels of oil have gone missing!

   1. Surprised with the lack of reaction really

8. Hi all,

   I can see Dow doing ATH after Trump speech. On that note I have been for the last few weeks buying the dips on interday trades on the Dow and made a killing. Now I know it’s due a fall i agree but I learnt the hard way by shorting and shorting and shorting….the trend is your Friend and the trend is still up. It could go to 25k, or 30k +.

   I say this not to offend anyone especially Icarus who I know is adding shorts, but i mention It as everyone says it’s going to crash and it isn’t. The banks etc want you to think it will crash so that when it rises they collect your cash as your shorts are taken out.

   Just my opinion.

   GL to all.

   1. Good man morko! Cash is your friend really. A positive equity curve for your account is the real indicator. Holding has been a real pain in the arse as you have to make some money on a regular basis to fund commission and losses. But hey, thats part and parcel of ones trading style.

      1. Well tonight could be your lucky day if the tax reforms are not as expected.

         I really just busk these days with no technicals…I also take out every £250 profit so not to get tied in. It really focuses the mind when using a small account balance (£500)

         I’m averaging about £125 a day which is ok for me as it’s only a secondary income/hobby.

         I get all out of sorts when using big accounts..,end up in too many trades. …man needs to no his limitations as Dirty Harry once said!

         Happy trading.

         1. Morko, when you have a bigger account do you leverage up in proportion? One of the advantages of trading is that it’s scalable within reason, so if you’re consistently making points then it should be easy to edge up the leverage over time and make bigger returns?

            1. I do / did but tend to panic more and so don’t maximise.

               With little amounts I have no emotion so trade in a more calculated and non emotional way. Which tends to generate me more profit.

               I have broken a fair few accounts in past so I think this style for now gives me confidence.

               I do need to grow the account and scale, but it’s very satisfying to take money out regularly.

               I tend to reinvest winnings in more long term investments.

      2. Do you have an exit plan on your Dow short Icarus? I think you’re due some relief with it but what if it keeps running?

         1. Yrah well i am prepared to wait for another 2 weeks to see if there are any impulsive declines. If so i will hold. I have made a fair bit hedging sometime back so prepared to wait until 22700 or two weeks whatever is earlier.

            1. What does 22700 mean, do you mean you will kill shorts or your account will be out of margin?

               1. Kill the shorts

9. Much better example of buy the rumour sell the fact today

   1. Oh yeah actually.

10. Closed all bar one Dow longs.

    Made good points but wanted to lock profit. Left one in as I think it’s gonna fly???

    Would like to short sp500 at 2520 if it reaches that high. They may sell the news yet as previously mentioned.

11. Added to Dow longs

12. Killed long – bottled it!

    Added sp500 short at 2511, and Dow to close low as it is only £3 max risk for what could be big rewards if it drops….plan gone up in smoke!

13. Typical, Dow dropped to my anticipated in the morning 12640ish and got to where I waited for earlier 12700. What to say here, Sod’s law. Cos of my headache I decided to call it a day so no regrets. But wish that rise happened at 15.00

    1. Sorry, I meant Dax (Clearly Dow is still on my mind too)

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