Pivot at 6828 set up bounce yesterday, will today’s at 6841?

Good morning. A bit of a choppy day in the end yesterday that saw both the levels mentioned in the trade plan hit, though the stop was just a tad too tight for the short off 6862. From the emails I think some of you went for the wider stop on that so that paid off. Annoyingly I got stopped out only to watch a very quick drop to 6820! Anyway, the long off the pivot at 6828 was alright, as that had a wider stop. If the target was set at 6860 then that has been hit overnight and once again, despite a good show from the bears , it all looks bullish still.  The bulls will be keen to break yesterday’s high at 6868 today. I expect resistance at 6888/6900 though, which is the top of the Bianca channels. The 30 minute channel worked very well yesterday and probably will again today, with support at 6835 (pivot 6840) and resistance at 6880.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

The Australian dollar jumped the most in a week after inflation data dimmed rate-cut prospects. Asian stocks advanced, led by shares in Shanghai, as Chinese money-market rates fell and the yen slipped.

The so-called Aussie climbed 0.7 percent against the greenback as of 2:26 p.m. in Tokyo. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent as Chinese shares rose the most in two months after the central bank injected funds to ease a cash squeeze. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures increased 0.2 percent. Japan’s Topix index increased as the yen swung to a drop of 0.2 percent. Natural gas headed toward the highest close in 2 1/2 years as cold weather boosts demand for heating fuel.

Australian consumer prices rose faster than economists forecast, reducing the central bank’s scope to cut record-low interest rates. Benchmark money-market rates fell for a second day in China, as the central bank made more funding available for smaller lenders. The Bank of Japan maintained stimulus amid unchanged economic forecasts today, while Thailand is projected to reduce key interest rates after a state of emergency was declared. Textron Inc. and eBay Inc. report earnings in the U.S.

“There isn’t a great deal of conviction about anything,” said Tim Condon, Singapore-based head of Asian research at ING Groep NV. “You’ve got better liquidity in China so that helps there. Everybody’s in a bit of an uncertain mindset about what’s going on and how quickly the Federal Reserve withdraws stimulus and whether the Bank of Japan does more or not.”

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 prediction
FTSE 100 prediction

Major support still exists at 6810 and I think if that breaks the bears are really going to go for it. For today there is support at 6840, being the daily pivot and the bottom  of the 30 minute channel, a channel which worked well in the end yesterday. 6810 is likely to be seen if yesterday’s low at 6822 breaks, but with Bianca channel support also at 6830 with the 10 day channel, there is a bullish overtone for today. I think we might see an initial dip off the 6861 area, probably to those lower levels then as per usual the buy the dip brigade swoop in. I don’t think ti will be long before we test the top of those daily channels on Bianca at 6890ish, maybe today.  The key level for the bulls will be to break and hold above 6861, whilst for the bears it will be break and hold below 6810. With the Dax at the bottom of its 30 minute channel, the S&P on support at 1844 and looking like rising to at least 1851 there momentum is with the bulls across the board (apart from gold hopefully!).

51 Comments

  1. This site goes all funny and the contents are squashed on the right hand side…. anyone else see this ?

    Using Firefox

    1. Ah thanks, do you use the ad blocker? There is a plug in that causes an issue, i’ll sort it out again as wasnt able to replicate it

  3. Unemployment significantly lower, got to be a knicker-dropper. This should be a lot lower than 6830’s.

  4. Yep I have a small short at 6848 – key will see which side of the pivot it wants to go. Struggling to get back over it at the moment but market seems to absorb news like this morning relatively well all things considered – I would have expected it tohave overreacted to the prospect of higher interest rates

    1. Well what I didn’t realise before I made my comment, is that the lovely chaps at the BoE came out and said there is no need to raise int.rates once they hit that threshold…so I guess that calmed the storm you were talking about straight away.

      1. Yes, just wait till next months and the months after for the inflation report. You will see how lovely it will jump due to recent energy prices going up, train fares going up and just wait for the food to go up because of that….if you think that Carney and Co. will hesitate to put the rates up, ten just see his record in Canada when he said they wouldn’t and two months later change his mind and put them up

    1. Agreed…but I personally only see a small bounce from here and a further drop into the close/overnight to the 6800 area.

  9. still holding large short from last week which has been sitting in a large paper loss. Now hovering around b/e. Not sure what to do…are we seeing weakness begin to creep in to the FTSE? Nicks chart looks scary to me :/

    2. I am also in the same boat as you. I think we have exhausted this tight range, and even though we haven’t had the break back below, it’s struggled a few times to break the higher areas.
      Although each time I have thought this and seen it heading to the downside, boom! it flips back.

  14. Although I am sitting on my short I am very cautious about adding to it. I had order 6830, which triggered and I closed with some profit, then had 6840 with the same result. Now I moved my orders higher as I believe there will be another try to break 6867. I have seen many times that drops (proper drops) begin with some sort of spikes, it has to be rejection of the price otherwise nothing will push it down. At the moment the necessity to test the highs is imminent. And whether it will push it higher it’s up to them of course, but the test should happen. Unfortunately. I know people want it to go down now, so do I.

  19. Interesting to see what happens before close, some more drop? Or nothing at all, boring day today

  21. Well I managed to turn a losing week into an ever-so-slightly profitable week today, so that’s nice.

    Stock trades, no FTSE trades this week (yet).

  22. bulls defended the 6820 support once again…will we see it drop below 6800 before my upside-i for one dont think so gl guys

  23. So we have hovered in this tight range all afternoon and once market closed we move up nearly 20 points. Glad i closed my short at close of normal business which did very nicely from this morning. Couldnt resist having another short again given this rise as I dont think it will hold.

    So is this view that this rally is now running out of puff. We have had two days of trying to push 6860 but couldn’t so nice price action suggesting we might be going down. What are everyone else’s views?

    1. Bulls seem to be running out of puff I agree. Think the failure to break 6860 is bad for them, certainly the S&P looks a bit weaker not even testing the 1850 again

  24. I’m still expecting a push to 6900 area before any downside , although DOW is weakening as well. Atm just trade the trend, until we see a suspicious overbuying, pump and dump scenario which will trigger a good sell off.

  26. This year has been difficult to trade.
    But do think that next wednesday will be a turning point
    Tapering isnt yet a done deal.

  28. Expecting tomorrow to be bullish, market was too slow for you Nick, the second half of your prediction should come out tomorrow’s open. Good night all

  33. Resistance at 6840 area, seems the bulls are weaker today. If they can’t break today, more down time 🙂

  34. Technicals aside…in my view, there is nothing to drive the FTSE up to higher levels. It’s ridiculous.

    1. We’ll the newspapers are reporting a whole lot today on economic growth.
      I personally don’t see why it would go any higher now. Unemployment yesterday should have pushed it down, but didn’t do much. I suspect that the DOW will drop further in preparation for the FED meeting next week. Hopefully it takes the FTSE with it…
      GL

Comments are closed.