Pivot at 5985 for initial resistance, early rise, dip then rise from 5940?

Support 5960 5936 5895 5871
Resistance 5985 5993 6047 6050 6080 6169

Market Summary for Thursday 18th February 2016
Thursday was the end of a four-day winning streak, led lower by major mining stocks and hit by growing concern over the potential impact of Britain’s exit from the European Union. Additionally the FT100 went ex-dividend by about 21 points so this made the headline figure worse than it actually was. Many investors remain concerned about the impact on mining and energy shares of a slowdown in China and so there was some profit taking in those sectors after the recent rallies. The worst sector performers were commodities and banks with utilities and other safer sectors performing better.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, paring the biggest weekly rally since December 2011, as the yen strengthened and a buildup in oil supplies dragged crude prices and energy producers lower.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.5 percent to 119.70 as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge rose 6.5 percent over four days going into the final trading day of this week after sinking to a 3 1/2-year low last week amid concern about the growth outlook for the world’s largest economies and the rout in oil.

“Sentiment on the oil market has been a key macro driver for stock-market sentiment recently,” said Ric Spooner, Sydney-based chief market analyst at CMC Markets. “Concerns about the potential for credit-market problems in the event of a lower-for-longer oil scenario are near the top of a fairly long list of macro factors worrying investors at the moment.”

Even after this week’s gains, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index remains 9.2 percent lower this year. Since the start of January, a combination of tumbling oil prices, concern about the slowdown in Asia’s largest economy and a selloff in bank stocks sent a measure of global stocks into a bear market for the first time in five years.

The Topix index declined 1.2 percent after the yen rose 0.8 percent Thursday. A strengthening currency dents the earnings outlook for exporters. The benchmark gauge is up 8.3 percent for the week, the most since 2009. Tokyo shares rallied on optimism the Bank of Japan will step in with more monetary stimulus and speculation that a global selloff had gone too far.

South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 0.2 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index added 0.2 percent.

Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index slid 0.6 percent, while contracts on the Hang Seng Index gained 0.2 percent and those on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.3 percent.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. Energy producers led losses on the U.S. equities gauge Thursday with investors betting on defensive equities less tied to economic growth, such as utility and telephone stocks. The gauge fell 0.5 percent after rising for three days.

West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 0.9 percent, trimming the week’s gain to 3.7 percent. Crude stockpiles rose by 2.15 million barrels to 504.1 million last week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Imports climbed 11 percent, the biggest increase since April. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

The end of a pretty bullish week thats seen a rise from 5500 in quite a short period, and has also seen us move into breakout territory at 5980. However, we have dipped back a bit from the 6020 level as the bulls weren’t able to hold above that yesterday and the 2 hour chart has gone bearish for the moment, with resistance at 6050. Todays pivot is at 5985 and whilst the 10min chart is currently bullish thus showing an initial rise to this area, I think we might see a dip back from that – recoil the spring possibly for another push upwards next week? The reason I am thinking a dip from the pivot is that the 30min has set up a bearish trend and looking at the coral has resistance from that at 5991 also. However, we will probably get a freaky Friday so its likely to do anything! We do have a quite clear 10min channel as you can see in the image, so its all eyes on the 5990 area really and to see what it does there. If the bulls push back above 6000 then a trip to 6050 is likely today, and if they can hold above 6000 then a bullish close for the week. However, a dip down to 5930 or even 5870 still looks viable. Case of trading off the key levels, keep the stops tight and be prepared for breakouts I think – 6050 and 5880 being the extremes of the range likely today.

67 Comments

  1. Morning all, good shout for the bounce this morning Nick. Watching the open this morning and if you took the IG open position-ometer as a guide it was interesting that as soon as it started its rally off 80 shorts went from 59% to 57%. Anyway, feels to me like they’ll try to get it to finish a good week above 6000 so maybe we will see 6050.
    On another note, I would like to thank Nick again for letting me, as a freeloader, use his message board. I don’t think there is any need for the “negativity” seen on the board yesterday.

    1. Morning all, Friday close as a number all sorts have an interest in is something I agree with too,although just holding the weeks climb would probably be enough,so not expecting much more than yesterday except with the Dax a close higher to shape the day chart +9463 seems inevitable.Thanks as always to Nick.

      1. Sadly I got nowhere picking that top but am quite excited about typing “Stop to break even” on the step up short that I’ve been sweating these past few days

  2. Not much to do here at work today so might be boring you lot a bit. FTSE a bit like watching paint dry but I think if we see mid ’40s soon then I might a little bit and follow Nick. Basically taking profit from expensive shorts the other and giving myself ammo to sell more if the DOW boys decide to give it a nice Friday run up.

  4. Hello all.
    Just been playing with those 5min binaries on IG that Nick’s been touting on Twitter.
    Good fun, I haven’t let one expire yet lol, talk about taking profits too early, I even do it in 5 min markets 🙂

    1. Heh. I’ve had a very mixed world with 5min binaries. Back when they did them differently, and there weren’t 3 windows; I had around £40 in my account. In one *night*, I got up to £3k. Then for the rest of the week/month, I managed to get to like £8k. Was super addicted… Then stopped for a while. Since then, I’ve probably lost all that I made, easily :).

      It’s very addictive, and not really worth it in my opinion! Risk reward isn’t great, and generally I tend to only trade at the 4:28 of the window, so there’s only 30 seconds left for error. I did attempt to make an auto-trader that did me well during the “positive” days when it’s less volatile through a demo account. Was up around £3k, although left it on its own for about a week, and the account was down to £0 from £13k.

      I’ll stick to watching, playing around with it through a demo account, and doing non-intraday 🙂

      1. bit of a dim question, but what is the main difference between binarys and options?! how do you work out your max risk on binarys?

        1. Binary is pretty straight forward. You’re betting whether it’s going to be above or below a certain level before the 5 minute window ends, at 4 minutes 30 seconds, the window is closed, and you cannot buy or sell anything
          http://cl.ly/423X1E0j1t11

          You can enter at any point, at £1/pt as a minimum. i.e. if it’s +0.0 then you put down £60 with a profit of £100. If it’s say like my screenshot where it’s 46, and it’s -0.7, however I think it will finish up in that window, I would make a profit of £54 a £1/pp.

          Does that make sense?

          1. thanks ACF. I’ll play around on the Dow with the IG demo account tonight and let you know on monday. sounds pretty straightforward

    1. Just read Mr. Mahoney (from IG) little write up. It seems he has been looking at tmfp’s special chart. Sadly, though, it’ll probably mean that yet more people are going to get short which’ll only support it!
      Clearly went early on the 56 purchase, had I held my powder there was a nice little 30 – 50 move, bugger. Still always time for the Americans to give it a run.
      Had a look at the binaries, that is quite a lairy old market, didn’t fancy it!

  6. Can somebody tell me why the above scenario happens without fail, 100% of the time?

    1. Open a position, say £10pp.
    2. Position goes against you (does it ever).
    3. Wait for price ALMOST return to your opening pos.
    4. Get excited, look to close half of it (£5pp).
    5. Coming in for a soft landing, getting closer and closer.
    6. You open the form, ready to BUY/SELL.
    7. Sitting, hovering over that button…
    8. Just about to touch…
    9. Flies back against you in style.

    1. I can answer that, after my lesson, it is called RSI. If you have that ‘Ometer on you’ll be able to see roughly what everyone else is looking at and therefore, roughly what everyone else is just about to do. Think I’ve got that right or it might just be the law of murphy.

  7. Si, when you open a position most of the time it will instantly be in a loss, because the spreadbet companies make money on the spread..
    Also if you have a plan and stick to it, normal, more often than not you can stick to winning positions.

    1. I don’t do plans very well. 🙂 I just find it interesting how I almost always pick the wrong direction. Anyway, such is life! 🙂

    2. For example, I went short on the dow at just after 4pm on Tuesday. That’s what I’m talking about. Went 500+ against me. I’m not very good at using stops, I don’t like goodbyes!

          1. Will do! I’m “only” 16k down at the moment, I wsa 38k down yesterday. I might buy a new car if I come out alive, as a reminder not to be so silly.

          6. I’m hoping for one of those Friday’s where it just goes down and down and down. When that happens, I’m usually long. Just as you think it can’t get worse, it does – usually around 6.10pm and then again when the theme tune for Emerdale comes on at the end, plus worsening throughout Eastenders.

          9. So, that thing just happened again! The first position I had was at 16284. I was all ready to close it once it dipped into the blue. We reached 16285! What are the chances…

  8. afternoon tmfp, what timeframe do you use-I paper traded the ASX last night and found the 30mins with rsi10 was better than the hourly. 6 trades 5 winners, taking 7-18 ticks each time.

  9. Hello everyone.

    I’m new here, but have been reading the analysis and comments for a couple of weeks. I’m currently making occasional trades from my ISA at Hargreaves Lansdown, but I’m not sure it’s really suitable for what you all seem to be doing, so I’ve been looking at opening an IG account instead (I’m not sure about the terrible online reviews though – although I suppose some of them may be sour grapes or sabotage by competitors).

    Could anyone please give me an idea of what chart indicators you all use most often (if indeed you all tend to use the same ones)? I am using TradingView charts at the moment and am trying to set up my FTSE chart so I can follow Nick Hilsden’s analysis. At the moment I have the EMA (10, close), EMA (25, close), Volume (20, false), and RSI (10, close).

    I’m looking for some settings to get the S1, R1 lines etc (pivot points?), and the indicator to get the ’10 day channel’ and the other time period channels that are mentioned on here. I’m not sure what that indicator is called.

    Thanks very much in advance if you can help, and also any feedback from IG users on here would be great too.

    1. Hello FGS, don’t know enough about charts I’m afraid, I’m a bit more of a “book and pencil” man but I use IG and can’t complain – If I’ve lost money it is because I’ve got it wrong and vice versa.
      Whilst I can’t claim to have experience but why not go on one of Nick’s courses?

    2. fgs
      you are in an enviable position.
      clean page. no baggage.
      forget all rsi. ema s1 and all that.
      spend a couple of months just reading the participants here.
      just follow them individually – making notes of their trades.
      get to understand the pyschology of trading before you part with a real penny from your bank
      its all here. success. failure. stupidity. greed. fear. and a lot more.
      if you think you are able to understand them and more so control these, reading the charts is a piece of cake
      try the demo account after that.

    3. Thank you both.

      The psychological aspect of trading is very interesting. I have read Mark Douglas’ books ‘The Disciplined Trader’ and ‘Trading in the Zone’, which were very revealing. One other book that I found very helpful was ‘The Art and Science of Technical Analysis’ by Adam Grimes. The thing that surprised me was his evaluation of data where he stated (words to the effect of) that short-term price action has a statistically-verifiable edge whereas long-term data is no such thing, and is effectively ‘noise’. That’s completely the opposite of what I had read people stating numerous times elsewhere!

      I’ll watch and read for a while yet, but in the mean time I’d like to set up my charts so that I can follow the analysis on here, and appreciate the numbers that you are all discussing on here.

    4. Hi FGS

      No problem with IG, I think they’re the best – better than City Index and Finspreads. They also have the most markets, sectors, small caps and products along with decent analysis. I’d recommend them. If you already know a client get them to recommend you and you’ll both get some cash in your trading account.

      Chart indictors. All smoke and mirrors in my opinion. The main stuff to look out for is support and resistance levels on a proper cash chart – not the 24 hours charts which the spreadbet companies use. Pivot points are good, again use proper ones rather than IGs 24 hour ones. Patterns are always useful – double top and bottoms etc.

      I hope that helps.

    5. Thank you both.

      I’ll probably go with IG then. I’m just going to do a bit more reading, then l’ll sort out an account.

      Nick, I’ll e-mail you when I get to that stage so you get the referral credit.

      Thanks again everyone.

    1. Custard, in the absence of tmfp, I am also running a long time, step up short. I am not looking to cover it any time soon. I will, however and hopefully, be covering bits on the way down if it looks like there will be a rally. Timing is everything and I got it wrong earlier buying a bit at 56 looking to sell it on at 70 odd on the bounce. Trouble is it didn’t bottom until 30, then only rallied to 50! Whilst it may sound strange, I’d like a fairly strong close to be able to open up the short a bit more again. All that said, you never made a loss by taking a profit! Hope that helps.

        2. Ahh, right, got it. I’m afraid not, haven’t got a sporting bone in my body. But from memory the pro footballers of those days used to enjoy a beer and a fag so maybe some things in common!

  11. Afternoon Si,

    I have a hunch you will be okay, I can’t work out any real support levels in the ftse till we drift down to 5875-5880 level which would be well through 16200 in the Dow. It all looks a bit heavy and I feel if you’ve watched it all the way up to 16500+ why not put your stop in now at 16400 say and run it? GL

    1. Thanks. That didn’t sound like a bad plan until the current move upward, 16400 is a bit close. I did have stops at 16700, but have since moved them down to 16575.

  12. Si
    could you explain your trades exactly
    what do you presently have and where were your entries
    £75/point

    1. I can’t be bothered to type them all out, but my average open is currently 16121. First trade was 16040 for £20pp.

      1. Not brave – just stupid! Short. I’m 16k down at the moment, 55k risked, was 38k down yesterday afternoon at the worst point. I’m going to shut up for a bit, I’m at risk of taking over the board. 🙂

        1. si
          so from rough calculations you need the high 15800 to b/e.
          so do you see this coming to fruition on the charts?

    1. Everyone is watching 16500 + for a day close to confirm the double bottom is in Bull theory,dont think it will get near there,but I expect a push up on short closing at least.

  18. REFERENDUM ANNOUNCED!

    Sell everything EU related for Monday and Tuesday, then buy it back again when we decide to stay in the EU 🙂

    Can see a few EU affected markets falling including the Euro for a short period.

  21. Tonights speech is here if anyone is interested,
    http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2016/sp-ag-2016-02-22.html
    Kind of feels like what it’s not saying is interesting although that might just be the low Volume stuff,it’s a bit blah otherwise,could say the same thing about this weeks G20 stories.
    941 to 960 still intact,last weeks pullback on the 749 to 5017 climb.Was short the opening 15 mins because hard to form a plan for ASX that isnt short,but looks like it wants another push at 5000 at the moment.50sma day is at 4984,roughly the high from Friday,just a waiting game I suppose.

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