7th July 2017
Well we got the dip and rise yesterday, just dipping a bit further than the 7344 support area as the North Korea debacle ramped up a bit, oil fell over 3% and German Bund yields hit their highest in 18 months which spooked everyone. The FTSE 100 fell to 7303 and then bounced back though, testing the new resistance at 7350. Overnight its stayed around the 7320 level – surprisingly staying above 7300 even as the US markets sold off after we had closed.
Today we will see the U.S. Labor Department report official jobs figures. American employers probably added around 175,000 workers in June and wage growth is expected to have strengthened, consistent with a solid labor market, economists project.
Bonds across Asia joined a rout that pushed German yields to 18-month highs. Bunds tanked following a weak French debt auction, taking Treasuries with them, and the declines intensified as European Central Bank minutes underscored concerns about stimulus tapering. The yen dropped after the BOJ announced its first unlimited fixed-rate bond-purchase operation since February. Asian equities retreated after the S&P 500 Index fell the most since May, while gold and oil also dropped.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
Its NFP news today so its always a tricky day to call. The consensus is that employers added 175000 workers during June, and wage growth is expected to have strengthened, which will show a solid labour market. Of course the news might be totally different to that so stay nimble!
I am looking at resistance at 7347 to start with today and support at the 7260 to 7270 area, assuming the bears break below yesterday’s low of 7303. There is also support at XXXX to bear in mind.
The ASX200 had a dip and rise day, similar to ours yesterday, however, their futures prices hadn’t followed us – so I don’t think we will follow that move today as closely as we usually do.
I am thinking that we will get an initial rise as the bulls come charging out the blocks, building on this small bounce form the lows yesterday, but it will be interesting to see if they are able to break through the 7350 level. There is still a chance that we get 7405, though with their repeated failure to break 7380 this week it might just be reliant on the NFP news to do that, if at all. Worth shorting if we do see it, though there is daily resistance at 7387.
I am going to try the short at the XXXX area but NFP Friday means smaller stakes and a bit less risk.
The bottom of the Bianca channels are both around the 7270 area so this area might well see some buying if we get that low.
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Morning all. Holding shorts and longs on ftse. Equal size.
Holding Dow shorts.
Short term downtrend in play…It just bounced off overnight support 7315…strategy short below 7380..
Still heavily short.. bounces are for selling with targets at 7100-7200. Might spike on NFP but trend is down
Wow, pretty bad figures there
Have to disagree. If NFP figures are OK then Dollar will firm up the Dow will rise and the ftse will rise
Still medium term bearish under 7380. SPX breaking down. Lower highs and flat lows again. It’s perfectly possible we rally on the number but one data release isn’t going to change the trend, so any rally is for selling. ADP private jobs came in weak yesterday so let’s see.. feel it’s a bit more ambiguous how the number will be interpreted today than it has been in recent months given the fed’s balance sheet reduction plans
Wasn’t going to post but I too think this is going to surprise a lot of traders…I think it’s goin to rally…
Yeah me too think it’s going to rally.thats what I have been waiting for
!
Agreed…look at cable now below 1.2900. Just added long to FTSE !
Short from 45. Not sure 300 goes today now, but I think there will be a test of the bottom of the range (7300). Out of shorts if this spikes above 7360.
Am short at 7347 currently
Ended up closing this at 7340
Hello all!! Hope had fun wth that drop yesterday.. I think going with the trend is still safe option and might be profitable one also .. 🙂 good luck all
If we close at this level today it will be Bullish next week. So I am expecting some wild moves, potentially to shake the positions on either side
Mixed numbers, leaning bad
Holding positions. Let’s see if Carney can perk up the markets
Watch out for the bull trap.. gap up openings on spx are for selling in downtrends. As long as we remain under 7380 it’s a bearish trend
Well I’m all closed out except a small FTSE short…had a very good week, which I needed!
I can feel the Dow having a PPT rally later..,rather than risk it, I will short it after.
GL all
Closed fts3 longs and added to Dow shorts
Wow look at gold fall!!!
Hope you did get out
…I did on gold!
Added a little long pre close on Dow which I closed up for 30pts. I am now short on Dow 21415, and dax at 400 (10pt stop).
I withdrew some money from IG today…felt good ! . Really important as I can personally grow my IG account and get complacent and risk it.
Yes that’s the right thing to do,pull out resourses as you make it…..The mindset when you start is to build a big pot and trade more size and it’s easy….doesn’t work,you trade bigger with the money in the account and after a series of winners you become euphoric…..then you have big size on and you get destroyed because sooner or later that bad trade is goin to present itself….
Congrats Anstel. Cancel the washing powder order. Good for a few days yet.
Thanks custard,not done too bad this week…..the amount I’m lending the brokers is considerably less this week than last and ive done really well so far trading round my losing position in short hedges…..all hedged up at good levels and put to bed for weekend…….see how it goes next week……have a good weekend……wonder what tmfp is up to?….and ….. What’s yellow and hairy :0)
Pleased to hear that morko. I do the same and try to take out seed capital as quickly as possible. I am down to my last 1k capital outstanding in IG. Once done, I will be trading with profits the size of half Mr. Livingstons stake.
Hope you have finished reading the book anstel and enjoyed it!
Good work Icarus…it’s seems we are all doing rather well.
Might be a while before I buy that FF Ferrari though!
I make far more money trading small stakes. Less emotional attachment, easier to cut if loosing. When in big and loosing it’s a two fold loss. Firstly your are loosing, but whilst you wait for that loss to right itself you miss out on all the other opportunities!
Yeah well ferrari is out of question. Even if I make the money I wouldn’t but it 🙂
I trade less but on slightly higher timeframes as that suits my juggling between a day job and trading. I us3d to trade lower timeframes but that just didn’t work out as I couldn’t give the market the attention it needed
He probably bought that property abroad that his Mrs wanted with Bitcoin cash!
Yeah I think it was Gozo but I seem to remember he was having second thoughts….hope he’s doing well wherever he is,he taught me a lot of things ,well he taught us all a lot of things…..good bloke I hope he comes back and starts doing some trading….be nice to see him posting again….