1st September 2017
We ended up with a trending day on the FTSE 100 yesterday helped by a rise on oil of over 3% and also falling cable which is back below 130. Unfortunately it enabled the bulls to break the 7419 resistance after a small pause and drop there, and then they managed to take it up to the 7445 where it stalled. Overnight has only dipped down to 7420, and today will possibly see an initial rise as its the start of the new month and new institutional money comes in. That said, looking at the ASX200 it had a dip and rise day and we do sometimes mimic that action…
We also of course have NFP* news out at 1330 later today, with the forecast at 180k, previous was 209k. The past 15 have been positive and above expectations, so today is likely to be the same. Sometimes think it’s a case of under promise and over deliver with the forecasts!
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
After yesterdays strong showing from the bulls I am expecting them to push on today as well. The key will be if the daily pivot at 7417 can hold as support as if this breaks then 7390 and then the 7350 area are the next levels of note. Possibly even as low as the 10 day Bianca at 7336. As mentioned above its the start of the month which usually sees a bit of a kick up as the new money for the month flows in, and we have a positive, bullish 2 hour chart for today as well. This is showing lower support at the 7377 level where we have a positive trend line.
If the bulls can break above the 7444 level which was yesterdays high then 7470 is the next fib level of note and also the 20d Raff channel – as such there might well be a stutter there so worth a speculative short. Bear in mind it is NFP Friday today so liable to be strange anyway, and with a new month thrown in as well!
I am going for the support level at 7417 holding initially this morning and buying the dips first thing is probably the most sensible play for today. This afternoon will of course depend on NFP but bear in mind the S&P is hitting the top of its 20 day Raff channel at the moment, so resistance at 2474 still.
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Morning closed part of my long position this morning between 39.8 and 49….. Running the rest a while longer….
Nice work mate.. it’s camped above 7440 now so has the potential to rally again. Looks very similar to yesterday’s open when it camped above 7380. Payrolls is usually bullish so I’m not interested in shorting this yet. However, US markets look to be at major resistance (2470-80) so looking to see how things set up after 1.30. I sold 7440 yesterday but the reaction was rubbish so got out for a small profit
Thanks Mcg…..and thanks to you I have been learning a little more about pivot points …….Ive not been posting as much though as I find conflicting opinions can create doubt ……It seems to work best for me when I trade off my instincts but I can add some more technical reference points now to add to my opinion of market Direction……Thanks for your input into this forum it all helps to make incremental improvements over time……best of luck…
Raining rockets over Japan hardly shook stocks and affirms the view this is a default investment class. I expect a good September with little risk for money residing therein. I think the strength of gold merely reflects a dovish view of interest rates.
Morning all. Short on ftse and dow.
..what level are you short Dow icarus ?? (if you dont mind me asking )
Sorry i meant holding shorts. My average is around 700. Looking to add if it goes higher.
Just added ftse hedges
I closed my remaining longs at 7454-7455 about 20 mins ago before NFP…..good weekend all…..
Sold EURUSD @70…..but could not hold it for the full ride
I’m short now.. looks like a fakeout through 7440s. Exit on a move back through 7450
Is all the talk about a “correction” off the table now ?????
No sir as far as i am concerned, 6900 or lower stands !
Just looking in to see where the Ftse is resting……FWIW my opinion is now that it’s consolidating ready for a further push towards 7500 maybe on Monday……. I expect it to break up past 7500 next week…. Then next time we sell off I don’t think the 7300 area will hold….I think Mcg is right I think it could drop to the 7082 area….before recovering as we make our way towards xmas…..its a long term prediction but let’s see how it plays out……best of luck all……
Closed long hedges on ftse and added to shorts on dow and ftse
Looks like markets will open well down on Monday.