NFP 175k forecast | FTSE 100 resistance 7173 | Support 7138

3rd February 2017

FTSE 100 Support 7138 7119 7095 7080 7067 7026
FTSE 100 Resistance 7143 7145 7156 7172 7173 7185 7192

Good morning. The FTSE 100 and the GBP/USD (cable) continued their inverse relationship yesterday with cable dropping form 12700 helping the FTSE to rise from the 7100 level. After cable had steadied at 125ish then the FTSE stalled at 7165, where we also had the 10 day Raff resistance. It dropped off after a while to 7130, then rose again to 7160 but has dropped off again overnight. Looking at the daily chart there is a possibility of further downside from this area as we are at the top of the 10 day Raff and Bianca channels, and the moving averages on the daily are brewing for a crossover to bearish (both the ones I look at are sitting at 7157). The rise was also helped yesterday by the BOE raising their growth forecasts to 2% (and inflation for 2% as well), as well as unanimously voting to keep rates and QE unchanged. Am going to watch cable quite closely as if it breaks 125 then it could be on a path back to 115. If it holds then it might be on for the rise to 129. And obviously that will effect the FTSE 100 also.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Here we are again with another Friday. And another NFP* news release later at 1330, forecasted to be a 175k increase, versus 156k previously. This morning we have the pivot for a bit of support at 7138, however as I am writing this both the 10min and 30min charts have resistance at 7143 so it could be an interesting open. I am not too keen on entering a trade at 6am so am holding off a short at 7143 for the moment, as it is possible that we get an initial rise to test the top of todays Raffs channel at 7173. We do also have the top of the 10 day Bianca at 7156. 7192 for the 20 day above that. As such I am thinking that the bulls might fail to really push on today (especially if cable bounces from the 125 level). As such I am thinking that once again shorting the rallies is a good plan for this morning/today and see where we go. The SP didn’t manage to put on much past 2284 yesterday and has trod water a bit since around the 2277 level.

If we break below the pivot this morning then we might well be on for another run down to the 7100 level, and another test of this may well see it break for 7080 and lower. There is still the 7185 level as resistance on the upside as well, tallying with the 2 Bianca channels for the moment. If this morning is weak then the daily chart should start to confirm bearishness and we will more than likely resume the run down from this 7160 level. So bit of a make or break day today really. Bulls will be keen to push above 7185, whilst bears are eyeing up 7080 and lower still.

59 Comments

  1. Morning Nick….can you see Ftse hitting 200 today? Just wondered what your chart analysis tells you? Thx

    1. I have resistance at 7173 area for today but then if that breaks yes, 7192, 7200 possible. Been a decent bounce so far off the daily pivot at 7138.

      Had a dax short order at 11680 which has just missed by 5 points before dropping 30….. annoying!

      1. Yes Thx Nick for reminding me how far this little rally has come already….that’s important to remember , at some point it will consolidate and pull back,possibly find support around that 62 area…

  4. Morning.
    Real weak hand syndrome here after seeing the way the opening dip was bought, I’ve bottled out on the majority of my short with a minimal profit.
    A combination of end of the week and NFP hype makes me think I’ve got the timing wrong, though the underlying theory is right.
    And as we all know, timing is everything.

    1. Well it’s certainly got momentum….the hard trade is usually the right trade…time to relax and pull up protective stops….

        1. Nice Trading Anstel! Really well held

          I can see it grinding up to the 90’s/200 as Cable is still dropping – amazes me how much the FTSE is influenced by the pair at the moment.

          1. Thanks chaps,,well I had a total of 9 longs between 22.8 ….most at 46-47 and a couple at 52……closed 8 at 77.8 and 1 at 79.3… Been holding a few days but it’s been a nice result….

          2. Nick Should add Like button Like FB . Well done anstel. hope you recovred well after brexit short you had ! I m ure that in the disttant past now. I have chnage my style after tmfp said all you to get screwed is one day when it just goes on n on . But great trade

          3. Thanks Sharma been a while….doin well at the moment Thx ….ive doubled my account since mid December but as we know it doesn’t take much to put a big dent in it……tmfp said once ” it’s not the trades you make………it’s the ones you don’t make that make the difference” that is so true and it’s sinking in now……anyone on here that is relatively new to trading…… you have to take a lot of knockbacks and learn to control your emotional state….then you need screen time ….1,000s of hrs of experience…and persistence……plus try and keep your size down….I get in messes with size still and it’s been my biggest downfall….even though it can work for you….just keep trying and trying and trying…..good luck all….

  6. Mrning All ! What a rise it is ! made 3/4 of it. Anybody on Short side. I got one @ 80 stop on whateevr itt is @ 12 pm

  7. anstel, I quite agree with tmfp’s ” it’s not the trades you make………it’s the ones you don’t make that make the difference” but I’d rephrase for myself like this: “it’s not the trades you make… it’s the ones you cut out early that make the difference” You never know if the trade you take is the right one but it takes the guts to cut the losses sooner is what makes the whole difference and it’s the hardest psychological hurdle to overcome. One day it works, another day the greed does its own thing.

        2. Spikes are not my friends, so I may call it a day. It’s better call it at profits rather than try for more luck in vain.

  11. US Payroll 227k -v- 175k, does that mean dollar will rise and FTSE will fall this afternoon?

    1. Tbh, I never understood what those numbers mean at all. Some magic in -v- between them. Interested to learn.

          2. At 2.24 I was out doing stuff, sorry didn’t see your comment. But I see it wouldn’t be a good idea, so fuf, good then.

  18. Hm this is always the hardest decision on a Friday – Running a Short from 7192. Although Gold and Cable are rising nicely. I’m always wary of non-cash hours – especially when the Dow’s passed 20K.

      1. Nice one 4 pts is 4 pts well done I’m not personally ready to short this…maybe later and well over 7200 hopefully..

  19. Hi Guys had to nip out and help a friend but I’m running two small longs from 84.3 and 85.3 now think it’s goin North….

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