Muted Budget | ECB | FTSE support 7297 7280 7240

9th March 2017

FTSE 100 Support 7303 7297 7285 7280 7279 7278 7271 7259
FTSE 100 Resistance 7329 7346 7360 7373 7419

Good morning. Well the bulls failed to break 7355 yesterday in what was overall a pretty weak session, especially just after the close with a decline to 7315 where we have remained overnight. Twice the bulls tried to push past 7355 and were rebuffed on both occasions, which opens the door for a test of the bottom of the Bianca channels at 7303 and 7285 today. Cable and gold also both fell, with the link between cable and the FTSE 100 appearing weak again – past few months have seen the FTSE rise when cable fell as it helps FTSE 100 companies having a weaker pound.

Yesterdays budget was a fairly muted affair on the markets with a few tax increases as expected, the most notable for investors being the cut in tax free dividend income from £5000 to £2000.

Mario Draghi is expected to keep QE going until the end of the year, the policy decision will be announced at 12:45. NFP news in the USA tomorrow also, I am thinking around the 190k mark for that so should be good as ADP was good the other day.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We had a fairly weak evening to drop off the 7355 area, and are now nearing the bottom of the daily channels with support in the 7280 to 7303 range. Longs around here should be alright I think, as we also have Draghi talking later and the ECB decision with QE largely expected to be continued till the end of the year.

The daily pivot at 7329 is initial resistance along with the red 30min coral line at 7323. Higher up we have a red coral on the 2 hour at 7360 – the bulls will be aiming to break this level for a push towards 7400 again, and maybe higher at 7450.

Support wise, below 7280 we have 7240 as looking fairly key and a break of this could well see things heading back down to 7100. As mentioned in the support and resistance levels section, there are some decent fib retrace levels at 7295 and 7271 of the move from 7193 to 7397 so these could also act as support areas, along with the bottom of the 10 day Raff at 7280.

I am thinking that it could well be a buy the dip day today.

32 Comments

  2. This slow retracement of last wednesdays bull candle has been painful. We have not had a decent attempt at reversal higher. Each day since we have a new daily low, and failed to break the previous days high in the process. Nevertheless we are still positioned to make a swing higher and may just be in the process of making a higher low on the daily chart. Only consolation is everything else is dropping as the dollar shows renewed strength. Fundamentally Id rather be holding FTSE and geting paid in dollars than holding the pound. Looking for a daily candle to add more FTSE etfs.

    1. anstel, What I don’t like here is MACD and EMA on 1 hour but I see a support (as I understand it) 7285. 7270 is however 61.8% so also has some potential to hold. But what I don’t like in this game is guess. For me when price broke 200EMA on 1 hour or whatever chart you are watching, it means it’s more likely to bounce down from it. Let’s hope it’ll consolidate and rise eventually, hopefully with NFP. Daily is the only promising chart for me right now.

      1. If you take this lot too seriously you won’t make any money…….it’s price action …..and reading what’s going on…

      2. I know, anstel, I only trade price action so for me it doesn’t matter where the price is going, what is important to me is EMA and MACD and obviously trend patterns. I just never underestimate 200EMA, that’s all. GL

  4. The pound looks set to challenge its multi-decade low under 1.20, which will surely bring further bids for multinational FTSE companies. I would not like to be positioned short in such circumstances. Assuming the FED lifts rates this month I think the dollar may well surge and that may be the catalyst for further pound weakness. The only likely protection I fancy here is stocks. Hopefully the last week is just a shakeout before moving on past 7400. One good day would sort that out!

  6. I was feeling peckish last night and I’ve been on a strict healthy diet for 3 months so anyway I thought I would buy a kit Kat…..and treat myself :0)……. Bloody hell have you seen how small they are now? I won’t be buying another one…ever…..that’s another complete piss take…..

    1. I gave up chocolate and crisps a year ago and whenever I sample them now ( about once every 3 months) I just feel sick. My body is awash with apple cider vinegar and coffee, bread was eliminated and replaced with quinoa etc…Didnt lose much weight but energy levels improved dramatically. I succumb to a glass of wine about once a month but otherwise no booze allowed. All processed food and sources of added sugar removed, only fast food is fish and chips once a week. New approach had a huge positive impact on my life, just waiting for yhe weight loss to accelerate . But I have energy I never thought would be possible again.

      1. Yes your right……I have a nutra ninja……you can put spinach,celery.avocado.lemon,pumpkin seeds,Apple,carrot,broccolli in it…Any combination you like really … Try and get organic it’s much better….it gets all the vitamins and nutrients in your body as all the parts of the fruits and vegatables are used…..it really does make you feel great……and I have a distiller,so I drink distiller water and use it in the blender as well…….There is so much crap in water these days….chlorine,chloramine,fluoride……it’s like drinking chemical soup…..no wonder every one is getting poorly….

    3. I read it last night that they were reducing the size of Kit Kats.and Cadburys Dairy Milk.because they need to reduce sugar levels in the products so to keep the taste they made the portion size smaller…….didn’t make em cheaper though…..that Irene Rosenfeld CEO at Mondelez has bought Cadburys and was after unilever couple of weeks back…..and Mcvities Digestives changed their recipe as well…..it’s a different taste and smaller….and I can’t remember but think they are now part of a global biscuit company…..from memory they might have been …..oh I can’t remember I will have a look…..but I don’t like those digestives anymore either and I used to love them…..

      1. Yeah so Mcvities got taken over by a Turkish biscuit company called Yildiz……it’s the third largest global biscuit company……and no ones ever heard of them…..!!!!

  8. Hi back now,just re – reading Jacks comment from 9.30 am…..looks like you pretty much nailed it there Jack so far.with 61.8% fib at 7270 and some support around 85….that’s really good well done your better than me at the technical stuff….:0)

    2. I just look at fibs and previous levels if I see them. Now 75, will it hold?
      It is easier to advice on the market I don’t trade lol.

      1. Yes I heard a good analogy Yday about demo accounts..:0)… It’s like going to the shooting club and firing at Targets…..you can get pretty good…….but it’s different again when someone’s shooting back at you lol :0)….

          2. Still …..I’m happy ive got the overall direction right but didn’t see this much pullback…..sat up my tree watching :0)….it’s a good view from up here :0)

  9. Not a fan of indicators as they are all mere derivations of price and therefore of little value. Attempts at forward looking indicators are poor, eg ichimoku clouds, and academic studies have no basis on which these work well over the long term. Therefore agree with Anstel price action is the way to go, because at least the risk can be defined with support and resistance thrown in. The best chart is a naked price action chart. If I had to choose some indicators, I believe looking at Bollinger Bands for support and resistance provided good set ups but you still have to wait for appropriate price action to develop at those levels. Try BBs usually set around 20 day SMA deviation 2.0 especially on daily chart.

    1. Yes one of the hundreds of videos I have watched was by Larry Williams….he suggested that the markets are like a steam ship……the technical analysis shows you where the ship has been by charting the steam coming out of the funnel…..but it doesn’t always tell you where it’s sailing too next…..to find that out you need to understand what the captains thinking !!….

  10. Impressed with Nicks buy the dip arrows. Hopefully we can get another hammer candle to finish the day over 7300 today and launch higher tomorrow.

  11. Yeah this is more like it:0)….. Let’s be having 7400…. No one will expect that after a pullback into the high 7260s…

  12. Ok sold my 93 and 98 at 20.8 on oversold Rsi on 3 min for 27 pts and 22 pts profit…but I needed to reduce my risk as it’s Friday tomorrow…I can come back and fight harder when the balls in my court but for now I will play defensive…

  13. Re – entered long at 7308.3 small while I’m waiting to get my proper long in profit..

      1. Took + 6 pts profit out of my 7308.3 long……..a bit less risk and some profit banked….closed at 7314.3….

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